brad1551 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I said that a week ago, winter is done and got blasted for it. I ended up deleting the post. Well I will say it again that winter is done 80% of it at least. Possible late winter storm is still in my cards when we have 5% left of the winter to close our books on the winter 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 if we come out of this 10 day period with not much to show for it we might be in trouble. in the cities that looks fairly likely outside the chance of something with the midweek storm. in reality this 10 day period will probably be slashed by a cutter next week it seems... yeah we can get good snow into the first week of march or so but we're very soon battling climo temps hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 if we come out of this 10 day period with not much to show for it we might be in trouble. in the cities that looks fairly likely outside the chance of something with the midweek storm. in reality this 10 day period will probably be slashed by a cutter next week it seems... yeah we can get good snow into the first week of march or so but we're very soon battling climo temps hard. That's definitely true. I think the last weenie hopes, though, are based on your own March Nina snow stats and RodneyS's stats about Marches after a torching December through February... the idea that if it's warm and pretty snowless all the way through March, maybe it will turn out to be one of those seasons where we do get a March snow that melts in like a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Your jokes are not funny They are jokes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'd say at this point we are on equal footing with Nina climos in warm winters from FEB 6th forward....no better and no worse...and that climo isn't very good..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's definitely true. I think the last weenie hopes, though, are based on your own March Nina snow stats and RodneyS's stats about Marches after a torching December through February... the idea that if it's warm and pretty snowless all the way through March, maybe it will turn out to be one of those seasons where we do get a March snow that melts in like a day. I'm sorta bipolar on the whole thing at this point. I want to believe some random stat but I think we keep getting handed duds repeatedly enough that its hard to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I said that a week ago, winter is done and got blasted for it. I ended up deleting the post. Well I will say it again that winter is done 80% of it at least. Possible late winter storm is still in my cards when we have 5% left of the winter to close our books on the winter 2011-2012. Best post of this thread. You're going to make a great "Met" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'd say at this point we are on equal footing with Nina climos in warm winters from FEB 6th forward....no better and no worse...and that climo isn't very good..... I would even throw in hangover years like 01-02...I wouldnt include ninos because of the southern stream.... so...I dunno...48-50, 73-75, 98-99, 01-02, 07-08....I think these are all good years to look at from now on forward...I think some were shutouts and some were better...but that is the best backdrop to see what we may or may not accomplish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I would even throw in hangover years like 01-02...I wouldnt include ninos because of the southern stream.... so...I dunno...48-50, 73-75, 98-99, 01-02, 07-08....I think these are all good years to look at from now on forward...I think some were shutouts and some were better...but that is the best backdrop to see what we may or may not accomplish For the last 3 there war at least periods of where it felt like winter. This year is surprising us all with the absolute lack of true cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For the last 3 there war at least periods of where it felt like winter. This year is surprising us all with the absolute lack of true cold air. I think the idea that that we are going to get a period with a great pattern where we cash in is about the least likely scenario of all....we will have a few chances at a cartopper, sloppy inch etc. and maybe 1-2 chances at a decent event if we can time something.....but they may not materialize.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 And the ones before those last 3 had pretty decent snowstorms in February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 And the ones before those last 3 had pretty decent snowstorms in February or March. The sample is so small and some are outliers on top of outliers. I mean it's as good a guess as any I suppose but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The sample is so small and some are outliers on top of outliers. I mean it's as good a guess as any I suppose but who knows. Oh I know.. I just mentioned that to remind myself that <4" seasonal total is actually pretty hard to do for DC. It's definitely *not* climo to have a season without a 2" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Your jokes are not funny Put me on ignore and go scamper back to your little friends at DBM who you spend your whole life with, and go talk behind my back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nam about to come in a bit letter by looking at 36, 500mb not as flat as last run and the slightest bit further west compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 NAM looking slightly more interesting.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 NAM looking slightly more interesting.. lol Yea the precip moves a bit slower too thanks a bit more digging in the h5 reflection, plus h7 has some decent rh, also surface temps look better if InstantWeatherMaps.com is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 lolnam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 about 1-2" nw of the cities this run it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 lolnam. Baltimore bullseye, sfc temps right around 32/32.5 in the city. Colder again and wetter, thanks to more digging at h5 as I said. Sim rad gives us about 9 hrs of 25dbz, will post shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 vort track not my fav per se imby but heavier/more precip would be good maybe we can get a cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 NAM is the closest thing to a sexy model run I've seen this winter at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 vort track not my fav per se imby but heavier/more precip would be good maybe we can get a cartopper Likely T-2" as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 NAM is the closest thing to a sexy model run I've seen this winter at this range. it looks like the euro from 12z pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 vort track not my fav per se imby but heavier/more precip would be good maybe we can get a cartopper And the surface is much much colder on this run-- verbatim it's road accumulations for outside of the city and definitely grass accumulations inside the city. Edited to add: I mean the the NW suburbs outside the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 it looks like the euro from 12z pretty much I didn't look at the Euro today but I got the impression it wasn't much given surface temp issues. The 00Z NAM is solid. As usual, when dealing with a spread of .10-.35 and marginal temps the models won't really nail it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 And the surface is much much colder on this run-- verbatim it's road accumulations for outside of the city and definitely grass accumulations inside the city. Edited to add: I mean the the NW suburbs outside the city. yeah leesburg fdk etc look good. it is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I didn't look at the Euro today but I got the impression it wasn't much given surface temp issues. The 00Z NAM is solid. As usual, when dealing with a spread of .10-.35 and marginal temps the models won't really nail it down. well i think the euro has tended to run warm on surface temps with storms this yr at least. as far as moisture it was wetter than the nam which now has caught up or even has more in md. would probably favor euro precip but it could go up -- probably not much -- i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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