yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is warm, but i guess we expected that well when the h5 vort is near PIT at 45... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 these things are almost always early in and early out Ian, I definitely agree with the orientation of the cyclonic vorticity being perpendicular to the heights. Although, I must admit, I only eyeballed the 500mb vort maps and didn't plot differential vorticity advection or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 well when the h5 vort is near PIT at 45... That's a concern, the position looked really good at 33 hours before taking a northward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 appears at least somewhat colder at surface on ncep through 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Honestly though who do I have to pay for a nice 5" snowfall? You seriously do need to dial that back to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 these things are almost always early in and early out True especially when the vort goes to your north leaving you out of the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's a concern, the position looked really good at 33 hours before taking a northward turn. Do you really buy that beeline north in a situation where h5 may argue that it shouldn't take that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 At least theres some spots of .10-.25 now when there wasn't previously in n md.... least it got a bit better rather than worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's a concern, the position looked really good at 33 hours before taking a northward turn. So BNA at 33... PIT 45... PHL at 51.. thats a weird vort track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You seriously do need to dial that back to 3". Not even talking about this 'storm'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 meh....hope the euro is better Meh is right though I think it a little better than the 18Z run for what that is worth. I dont think things will be sorted out until sometime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 True especially when the vort goes to your north leaving you out of the comma head. around here we have a hard time getting in it either way.. n md/s pa better i guess. the gfs vort is stronger at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 So BNA at 33... PIT 45... PHL at 51.. thats a weird vort track... Part of that is a result of the mountains and how vorticity tracks across them. There is something called CAV trajectories that explain such a track. they tend to swing north on the west side of mountains and then swing back south a little on the east side if I remember my dynamics correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not even talking about this 'storm'... Right-- I'm not talking about this storm either. We know we are never guaranteed a 5" storm here, and can go 2 or 3 winters without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 around here we have a hard time getting in it either way.. n md/s pa better i guess. the gfs vort is stronger at least. Its really not preferable that the vort is in PIT, love how it went past BNA though as Wes mentioned, there will need to be some more examining of this as per the usual this winter where we don't nail it down until game time. I know you don't like vorts that don't go south of us, and I agree, we need that "comma head" type feature mentioned by Wes, both to get the better rates that lead to Justin Berk "stickage" as well as a cooler column and lower SFC temps. NAM had that comma head type stuff hitting us, we'll see what the upcoming Euro and 6/12z suites have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Its really not preferable that the vort is in PIT, love how it went past BNA though as Wes mentioned, there will need to be some more examining of this as per the usual this winter where we don't nail it down until game time. I know you don't like vorts that don't go south of us, and I agree, we need that "comma head" type feature mentioned by Wes, both to get the better rates that lead to Justin Berk "stickage" as well as a cooler column and lower SFC temps. NAM had that comma head type stuff hitting us, we'll see what the upcoming Euro and 6/12z suites have to say. i'd like to see the nam shift south still heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 i'd like to see the nam shift south still heh. of course, you and those vorts Ian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 of course, you and those vorts Ian! what's up with the trailing one? it sorta likes mt then moves then likes mt.. the nam leaves part of it behind. maybe it's not important though trailing vorts have been our nemesis for 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 weenie alert Valentines Day: Woof for the M.A. on that setup...me swinging by my shoe strings from the basement rafters for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 more believable than a big coastal crushing us yet not that believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 actually the qpf isnt that crazy.. that's probably how we get a big snow this yr if we so. too bad every run is totally different at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 actually the qpf isnt that crazy.. that's probably how we get a big snow this yr if we so. too bad every run is totally different at that range. Looks nice but could as well be 100 days away. The Euro will probably show 70 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks nice but could as well be 100 days away. The Euro will probably show 70 and sunny. The storm the GFS shows is a good example of what can happen if the PV diving south does a big turn-about on the pattern...it flips the NAO negative while a cold air mass is already in place...that is a classic Archambault event...but of course, the models have been handling the PV so pathetically that you might as well throw darts to figure out what will happen with it. HM has definitely been correct at how pathetically inconsistent the model guidance has been during this transition. Its probably the worst we have seen in the past 3 or 4 winters that I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 which is why I said weenie alert there is zero skill at that range with a specific storm the euro and gfs are quite different early week into mid week of course. who knows. i think this is a "smarter" solution to hope for than a gulf of mex miller a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the euro and gfs are quite different early week into mid week of course. who knows. i think this is a "smarter" solution to hope for than a gulf of mex miller a. Its definitely a more reasonable solution for DC than hoping the gulf system interacts with the arctic front just right a couple days prior...that threat is probably more of a NE threat anyway since it might not interact the gulf at all and be northern stream dominated...and will probably just miss everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Its definitely a more reasonable solution for DC than hoping the gulf system interacts with the arctic front just right a couple days prior...that threat is probably more of a NE threat anyway since it might not interact the gulf at all and be northern stream dominated...and will probably just miss everyone. First time I've been at all interested in anything at range even if it's a fantasy. I've pretty much written off the weekend threat tho.. Perhaps too soon. It fits with what we've seen work better tho of course it's supercharged. I think last yr burned too much with more pure coastals to have any faith in that for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We arent going to get any big complex slowly traverse across the country and plow into a deep stable trough....So I think the model watchhing beyond day 4 is more just for fun....I think the 2006 storm the JMA was the 1st to pick it up and it was day 6 or so...I think the indications of a big event and some consensus was at day 4-5 and that was considered well forecast.... Well I don't expect it that's for sure heh. But I'd rather take my chances on that type look even with half the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 HM is actually more optomistic if you check the MR thread in WFD. However I am not uncanceling winter until I have 10+ on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We arent going to get any big complex slowly traverse across the country and plow into a deep stable trough....So I think the model watchhing beyond day 4 is more just for fun....I think the 2006 storm the JMA was the 1st to pick it up and it was day 6 or so...I think the indications of a big event and some consensus was at day 4-5 and that was considered well forecast.... The Euro choked really bad on that storm...one of the few KU's that the Euro choked on almost the entire way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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