mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 look at the 500-1000mb thickness on the NAM at the top link then look at the surface temps below unfooking-believable http://mag.ncep.noaa...0&nextImage=yes http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18Z NAM prints out some moderate rain showers for mid week. Huzzah! It'll be colder than modeled, and it's already modeled pretty cold. That's my statement and I'm sticking to it. I don't make statements for people at sea level, but back this way, again, we lose far more events to lack of precip than temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 nam is so cold at 850 and 1000-500, i have a hard time believing it will be that warm at the surface. Also, that vort has some potential, if it gets a little more turn on it, I see a chance at jb maybe not having his thumb in sundontshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The nam now looks a lot like the Euro. I think many will see flakes at the onset but then it gets pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 look at the 500-1000mb thickness on the NAM at the top link then look at the surface temps below unfooking-believable http://mag.ncep.noaa...0&nextImage=yes http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M look at this real quick mitch, looks better than we think, and will get modeled colder as winterwxluvr says, at least I agree IMHO. stays 34ish for Baltimore city, a bit warmer for DC, but judging by 850's and Upper levels, it could trend colder, could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 nam is so cold at 850 and 1000-500, i have a hard time believing it will be that warm at the surface. Also, that vort has some potential, if it gets a little more turn on it, I see a chance at jb maybe not having his thumb in sundontshine. We just had this scenario over the weekend. It was cold enough for snow in the upper levels and we had mostly rain in many spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 look at this real quick mitch, looks better than we think, and will get modeled colder as winterwxluvr says, at least I agree IMHO. meh, it's like -5C at 850 and surface temps are in the mid-upper 30's; I guess I'll chalk it up as a new way not to get snow around here http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F06%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_temp_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=051&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I know its a god to some, but I can't believe anyone is taking the Euro long range to heart, GFS either. There's a possibility for Wed. That's all that matters. It may not be much, but its something. there are some things in life that are a given like you being one of the most optimistic about everything here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 meh, it's like -5C at 850 and surface temps are in the mid-upper 30's; I guess I'll chalk it up as a new way not to get snow around here http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M 34 at Baltimore mitch. not that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 nam is so cold at 850 and 1000-500, i have a hard time believing it will be that warm at the surface. Also, that vort has some potential, if it gets a little more turn on it, I see a chance at jb maybe not having his thumb in sundontshine. I'm pretty sure I saw the same thing written prior to the last event. If you live in the mountains and out west towards Frederick with higher terrain, that's probably right but in dc, I got my doubts. The airmass jsut isn't that cold. I think we'll see some flakes at the onset but 1-3 inches in the city is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 We just had this scenario over the weekend. It was cold enough for snow in the upper levels and we had mostly rain in many spots. we were more like -2C at 850 when it started if you recall, the 0-line was just south of DCA in any event, it just ain't our year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am a convert to Ian's references to the idea of persistence. Around Balt City, persistence for this horrible snow season says wet flakes that don't accumulate. It was that way for the late October storm, and has been that way for every possible "event" since save one (where there was a tortured inch plus of snow/ice). I would say, based on that, at least, that Wes' (and others) idea of some wet flakes that don't accumulate pretty damn likely for the I-95 corridor. It certainly fits the winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 There is a big temperature gradient between dca and bwi. the former is around 38 at 1PM while the latter is only 34. Yhat gives BWI a chance at getting the grass white and for places out towards frederick for seeing an inch or two of snow if the temps hold during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 There is a big temperature gradient between dca and bwi. the former is around 38 at 1PM while the latter is only 34. Yhat gives BWI a chance at getting the grass white and for places out towards frederick for seeing an inch or two of snow if the temps hold during the day. I hate to sound like you on this one, but the NAM will change in 6 hours sadly, I won't see it because my d@mn internet is dead at the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I hate to sound like you on this one, but the NAM will change in 6 hours sadly, I won't see it because my d@mn internet is dead at the house It might change but it is now with the euro which is the best model so I'd ride the euro qpf and nam temps for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It might change but it is now with the euro which is the best model so I'd ride the euro qpf and nam temps for now. If you are going to pull that ol' weenie trick you should pick the two snowiest models, like take the JMA precip and CRAS temps or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 There is a big temperature gradient between dca and bwi. the former is around 38 at 1PM while the latter is only 34. Yhat gives BWI a chance at getting the grass white and for places out towards frederick for seeing an inch or two of snow if the temps hold during the day. I suppose that makes things a little more optimistic. It is frustrating to see the upper-levels so cold and yet be 34 and rain at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I suppose that makes things a little more optimistic. It is frustrating to see the upper-levels so cold and yet be 34 and rain at the surface. On Saturday I stayed 35-36 with primarily rain and few managled snow flakes here and there. I think this is going to be a very similar set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 On Saturday I stayed 35-36 with primarily rain and few managled snow flakes here and there. I think this is going to be a very similar set up. Setup this time would actually favor a higher snowflake to precip ratio than saturday's strom. Vort track is semi decent, pretty cold upstairs, and dp's will be lower. Still, not much precip to work with regardless. DP's will also eat up some of the scant precip before it can make it to the surface. I'm not even sure why I'm analyzing the Wed event. I guess I've resorted to analzing model runs hoping to just see snow falling from the sky because the has been the definition of "event" this year. Snow sticking? heh, not much of that going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I picked up 0.8" of snow Saturday on 0.25" precip. Wednesday looks like it will have a colder profile, but model QPF output is much less for this next "storm." I doubt that better ratios will offset the 50% less moisture, so I'm expecting less than 0.8" Measuring tenths of an inch of snow is the theme of the 2011-12 winter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I picked up 0.8" of snow Saturday on 0.25" precip. Wednesday looks like it will have a colder profile, but model QPF output is much less for this next "storm." I doubt that better ratios will offset the 50% less moisture, so I'm expecting less than 0.8" Measuring tenths of an inch of snow is the theme of the 2011-12 winter for me. at least you have enough to measure. /no jokes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 at least you have enough to measure. /no jokes please Have you had that problem in the past or just this winter?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'd be happy with nickels and dimes, but its 6.5" of pennies for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Have you had that problem in the past or just this winter?. other winters its more the cold than lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Have you had that problem in the past or just this winter?. Your jokes are not funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'd be happy with nickels and dimes, but its 6.5" of pennies for the season. Well, I'm at 6.5 flakes so you're killing it this year. We shouldn't be totally discouraged. Pattern isn't shaping up like we wanted it too but I don't think we should just discount an amplified pattern because no threats of any consequence are showing up on the models. GFS and Euro do agree on various forms of an amplified pattern starting this coming weekend. Flow looks fast still so any "real" threats probably won't show up until 3-4 days out. We'll see what shakes out over the next week or 2. Mid Feb + ridge west/trough east is a heck of a lot better than pac zonal or the dreaded se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well, I'm at 6.5 flakes so you're killing it this year. I'm at about 25% of an average season total. And 4" of that was on 10/29. That one actually stayed on the ground for one full day after, unlike Saturday's fall. It was snowing with everything white yesterday morning here, and by sunset it was mild and no evidence remained that it had snowed. Lack of cold all winter has also made it feel bleak. I think we'll get a couple of spring-type snowfalls late February-mid March here when the wavelengths change. Hopefully the metro areas can get in on them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Well, I'm at 6.5 flakes so you're killing it this year. We shouldn't be totally discouraged. Pattern isn't shaping up like we wanted it too but I don't think we should just discount an amplified pattern because no threats of any consequence are showing up on the models. GFS and Euro do agree on various forms of an amplified pattern starting this coming weekend. Flow looks fast still so any "real" threats probably won't show up until 3-4 days out. We'll see what shakes out over the next week or 2. Mid Feb + ridge west/trough east is a heck of a lot better than pac zonal or the dreaded se ridge. We aren't going to get any more snowstorms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We aren't going to get any more snowstorms this winter. The saddest part of this post is the fact that your forecast has a really high chance @ verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We aren't going to get any more snowstorms this winter. Fixed. I'm still waiting for the first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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