WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'll take what the euro shows precip wise here on Wed. and take my chances with the temps. I don't know how cold it thinks it needs to be, and I can't see its temps all the way down, but with the 850 temps it shows, and the mid 30's or so it shows, I think Sat is pretty good evidence that it would be snow. I just need it to speed up by about 6 hours or so. Haven't I read here that the Euro is suspect sometimes with surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm thinking about heading to deep creek if it still looks good....snow should fall all day and I think maybe heavy at times....maybe 4-6"? depending on elevation/location I do have days... I don't think I would go that far to see snow... webcams might do it... I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 euro's very cold monday morning.. maybe coldest of season if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 in retrospect it seems the strengthening NINA has been the killer things just kept getting cooler after Christmas and still haven't peaked, or maybe just peaked we needed the NINA to start to fade after Christmas EDIT: this week's number at 3.4 is the coldest it has been all winter! http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for Overpowered the -QBO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 mid 20s for highs next monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 euro's very cold monday morning.. maybe coldest of season if it's right It sure would be....if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It sure would be....if it's right. maybe hard to believe.. the brutal stuff is quick in and out tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the setup is iffy and has been for a while. we keep getting better looks at range that degrade as we close in. no one here would ever punt anything until it's 150% clear it won't happen. what else encourages or discourages? water vapor loops? People punt here all the time. Punting doesn't equal stopping posting or looking at models. Just the whole "this event isn't happening" mentality of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think there is a better shot than not that we get something of note before it's all over for winter but I'm getting to the point that I might be wishcasting. I think in 2001-2002 our coldest air mass of the season came on like march 22nd. That is the problem with these **** winters. Even I am ready for nice weather at that point but even if we get shut out we will probably get punished with an arctic outbreak on like march 24th followed by 4 days under a marine layer with highs of 42 every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 So as a consolation for a non-starting pattern change and no snowstorm, we get a day with lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s? Yay? "Pattern change" looks completely gone and looks like it will warm up fairly quickly after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 So as a consolation for a non-starting pattern change and no snowstorm, we get a day with lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s? Yay? "Pattern change" looks completely gone and looks like it will warm up fairly quickly after Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if even that moderates to a 42 degree day with a low of 23, followed by 50s. Seemed pretty typical in 01-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Overpowered the -QBO? obviously I go back to the thread; it was the 2nd year of a NINA and we knew things were stacked against us I found one statistical characteristic that gave some hope but hope's not good enough around here, as we all know by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 People punt here all the time. Punting doesn't equal stopping posting or looking at models. Just the whole "this event isn't happening" mentality of it. i guess that's true to a degree. tho there are also those on the other side who will hold onto a threat much longer than they should. it balances out a lot. im not sure exactly what i'd want to see on the models to believe in the weekend threat right now but what i see from here is not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think in 2001-2002 our coldest air mass of the season came on like march 22nd. That is the problem with these **** winters. Even I am ready for nice weather at that point but even if we get shut out we will probably get punished with an arctic outbreak on like march 24th followed by 4 days under a marine layer with highs of 42 every day. that would be spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 gotta' admit it looks cold all over the N. Hemisphere on Monday, not that it's gunna' help our snow chances this year http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 i guess that's true to a degree. tho there are also those on the other side who will hold onto a threat much longer than they should. it balances out a lot. im not sure exactly what i'd want to see on the models to believe in the weekend threat right now but what i see from here is not that great. let's see how "Sunny and 80" works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 mid 20s for highs next monday? I saw the GFS "squeezing" the pv down this way too and thought "how many times have we seen cold on a model not materialize this year". I guess seeing both the gfs and euro depict similar cold solutions has me interested a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I saw the GFS "squeezing" the pv down this way too and thought "how many times have we seen cold on a model not materialize this year". I guess seeing both the gfs and euro depict similar cold solutions has me interested a little. i'd guess it's a little overdone but there has been a persistent sign we'd get at least a day of big cold around then. in other news the rest of the euro run sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Weak...Wunderground Euro maps show lows in the low teens for the I-95 corridor and immediate suburbs on Monday. Single digits probably for folks near the Mason-Dixon and well out in the WVA mountains. Well below zero in Garrett County, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 in other news the rest of the euro run sucks. It is disheartening to look at run after run and nothing sticks. Weekend has been OTS, but maybe three flakes on Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 i'd guess it's a little overdone but there has been a persistent sign we'd get at least a day of big cold around then. in other news the rest of the euro run sucks. Aboslutely, it's almost always overdone. Not just this year either. Could be the coldest temps of the season though. Not really saying much. Yea, euro not really that encouraging overall. However, I can just ignore anything I don't like and focus on the good stuff only. That's one of the good parts of being a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 JB just tweeted this : @BigJoeBastardi: Wed storm will do better in mid atlantic than US models see. Nice jet structure ala JMA. 1-3 local 4 DC to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 JB just tweeted this : @BigJoeBastardi: Wed storm will do better in mid atlantic than US models see. Nice jet structure ala JMA. 1-3 local 4 DC to BOS I'm a weather novice, and a bit of a weenie (seeing that I want snow if there's a chance), but really? The JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It probably will be wetter than the american models. The big problem is low level temps. If JB is talking for higher levels back near Frederick or to the west, I'd say yes. For DC and BWI, 1-3 looks like a reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It probably will be wetter than the american models. The big problem is low level temps. If JB is talking for higher levels back near Frederick or to the west, I'd say yes. For DC and BWI, 1-3 looks like a reach. No he was talking about the big cities, but i guess he always writes DC to BOS because that is where 90% of his subscribers live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It probably will be wetter than the american models. The big problem is low level temps. If JB is talking for higher levels back near Frederick or to the west, I'd say yes. For DC and BWI, 1-3 looks like a reach. I think JB went with the JMA the last storm (maybe the one before) and that got us no where fwiw, JMA has another clipper Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 JB and DT are always wrong on the southern fringes. If either of those clowns calls for a nice snow DC north you can bet DC will get nothing. Better when they call for a nice snow RIC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18Z NAM prints out some moderate rain showers for mid week. Huzzah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I know its a god to some, but I can't believe anyone is taking the Euro long range to heart, GFS either. There's a possibility for Wed. That's all that matters. It may not be much, but its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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