JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 he lives in New Jersey. not sure why he insists on posting in this subforum. Even though he is technically in NJ, he is also technically further south than some folks in this forum, so it would make sense as to why he's posting on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Yeah, we can ask dtk to be sure, but I think that must be part of the GFS programming. Offer a snowporn run at 6z and then a dousing of coldwater at 12z. Absolutely it is. I have to find some way to entertain myself in a crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 For Dc, it's pretty simiar. The soundings looks like they would support really wet snow at 18Z for what that is worth. Like Matt has said, if it does do anything, it would be very similar to Saturday's event. More north and west you are, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 we know...you mention it often hard to complain in this shenandoah winter we're having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I know Don is non-commital for good reason about March at this point-- he still keeps on slipping in 3 years into his posts: 56, 76, 99. 3/76 is exactly what you're talking about that I hope doesn't happen. there was certainly some anticipation of 2/11/06 before it came, but most of us were despondent that January and it kind of snuck up...Most Marches that produced were total sneak jobs...1999, 2009, and probably 1984, 1990....In DC in most winters and especially this one, you can cancel winter and say nothing is going to happen and we are screwed, etc and you will probably be correct, but it doesnt mean there is any skill involved in doing so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I've enjoyed it, and I think most of the rest of the I-81 crew has as well. that's cool.. it's nowhere near that claim tho but im glad you like 1" events seperated by weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'd say any signs other than models...persistence, winter so far, nina, scream against a storm and maybe climo leans slightly toward an event in the next 10 days....I don't expect the models to get a phase right at day 6....that doesn't mean it is 50-50 or a coin toss...it is not imo, but I don't need to see the models pasting us with QPF at 144 hours to buy a storm....even if say the GFS gave us an 1" of frozen at day 6-7, we wouldnt buy it....most winters, but especially this one, you will usually be right betting against a storm....doesn't mean most of us really know what's going to happen next weekend.... yeah i just think the pattern has degraded from the original look so it's going to be harder than it might have seemed... tho i suppose that should be expected given the winter we've had. the idea that we're going to have a window of really great opportunity seems more any more a dream. i wish it wasnt but we're going to need to get luckier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Absolutely it is. I have to find some way to entertain myself in a crappy winter. I know it's completely anecdotal, but it seems like the GFS this winter has gone back to the old "warm runs vs. cold runs". 0z and 6z are "cold" runs and 12z and 18z are "warm" runs. No rigorous basis for this of course, just an observation from my seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 my initial claim, and reposting of it was tongue in cheek. and 1" events and even just flurries in the air are better than rain or nothing. that's a good and happy attitude to have. im glad for you. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 it still hurts. I had taken the day off ahead of time and so took myself out of the fun. it was worse than missing the thundersnow in Feb 06 b/c at least then I was in Florida. FWIW, the epic part of the storm just like 2/11/06 was in the very early AM hours and many/most missed it...so unless you were going to be up at say 4:30, you may have missed the brunt anyway if it is any solace.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I know it's completely anecdotal, but it seems like the GFS this winter has gone back to the old "warm runs vs. cold runs". 0z and 6z are "cold" runs and 12z and 18z are "warm" runs. No rigorous basis for this of course, just an observation from my seat. Maybe NCEP put their supercomputers in the sun so during the sunny times of the day (12z and 18z) the computers heat up and print out a warm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 yeah i just think the pattern has degraded from the original look so it's going to be harder than it might have seemed... tho i suppose that should be expected given the winter we've had. the idea that we're going to have a window of really great opportunity seems more any more a dream. i wish it wasnt but we're going to need to get luckier than normal. I never bought into that idea....at least fully......I did think the pattern would improve and be different than what we have seen, but the stable good pattern with a window was a concept that I think was pushed a little too hard by people, especially for our region...I never liked that narrative and I have said so....I think that has been a bad way to approach/frame this winter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 that's cool.. it's nowhere near that claim tho but im glad you like 1" events seperated by weeks. and they got screwed on 1/9 and 1/22....doesnt matter...I don't begrudge anyone who enjoys and appreciates what they get versus endlessly bitching about what they dont get...so I support and appreciate trixie's point of view...Her attitude is sane and healthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 and they got screwed on 1/9 and 1/22....doesnt matter...I don't begrudge anyone who enjoys and appreciates what they get versus endlessly bitching about what they dont get...so I support and appreciate trixie's point of view...Her attitude is sane and healthy... we usually have at least one event that's decent to this point which we have not unless you're blinded by futility. october was interesting but not here. we're all imby at heart even if we pretend not to be. if all i get is another 1" snowfall or two 1" snowfalls i'll enjoy them while they happen but im not going to act like they were awesome for a long time. even knowing our climo heavily it sucks. no one should be extremely thrilled being way below normal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm at a point where I'd almost like the shut out because we've never had one down here-- they have in Danville, never in Lynchburg. (Not counting the 3 T's of sleet and 2 T's of snow) If this weekend plays out as modeled-- outside the GEM, I'm in on a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 we usually have at least one event that's decent to this point which we have not unless you're blinded by futility. october was interesting but not here. we're all imby at heart even if we pretend not to be. if all i get is another 1" snowfall or two 1" snowfalls i'll enjoy them while they happen but im not going to act like they were awesome for a long time. even knowing our climo heavily it sucks. no one should be extremely thrilled being way below normal at this point. I among those who is insane and unhealthy so I agree 100%...I have been in a complete meltdown for 6 weeks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I was up at 5:00 am anyway and watched the progress of the system on the news. that's why it hurts still. luckily I'm getting old so soon I will forget all about it. I actually had a wind-whipped snow shower move in about 3:30 a.m. that morning that looked great for 5 minutes and whitened the roof of the house. Then it stopped. Like you, that miss still stings me. I did drive down to Little Bennett Regional Park in Montgomery County that morning and walked the trails in a 6" cover. Then stopped to eat lunch in downtown Frederick and was treated to a nice snow shower. and they got screwed on 1/9 and 1/22....doesnt matter...I don't begrudge anyone who enjoys and appreciates what they get versus endlessly bitching about what they dont get...so I support and appreciate trixie's point of view...Her attitude is sane and healthy... That '08-'09 winter was only the second I could find in the records for this area that never managed a single 2" snowfall. Using the airport from 1926 onward, and good coop records back to the 1890's (the other was 1932, IIRC.) 10/29 is the only thing up until now standing in the way of this year being the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I among those who is insane and unhealthy so I agree 100%...I have been in a complete meltdown for 6 weeks now It just started for me. But I'm not really sure I believe anyone here feels that different. I mean yeah we will all take snow over none but a cartopper wont make us feel better for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 euro back off slightly on wednesday....FWIW it looks like a really nice event for Deep CReek/Preston/Tucker etc......and it would be day time as well....maybe 3-6"?.....might be worth a day drive for someone if they can do it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It just started for me. But I'm not really sure I believe anyone here feels that different. I mean yeah we will all take snow over none but a cartopper wont make us feel better for long. I am more frustrated than anything else. I know we can't control the weather, but its just disappointing. Btw, how was the EURO for Wed Zwyts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 yeah i just think the pattern has degraded from the original look so it's going to be harder than it might have seemed... tho i suppose that should be expected given the winter we've had. the idea that we're going to have a window of really great opportunity seems more any more a dream. i wish it wasnt but we're going to need to get luckier than normal. I think it has degraded from what was forecast and from when I wrote that I thought our chances were improving for snow and that for a 2 week period, I thought the pattern would be a better than average one for a la nina winter. Now, I'd say it's devolving into an average one. The Atlantic side remains a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It just started for me. But I'm not really sure I believe anyone here feels that different. I mean yeah we will all take snow over none but a cartopper wont make us feel better for long. I knew you would..it is 51 out now and it feels like 75 in the sun....We have conquered the heart of dark, nasty winter....we can all feel spring creeping up....every snow hater I know (not referring to you) wants snow at this point....if you are a warminista you have already won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am more frustrated than anything else. I know we can't control the weather, but its just disappointing. Btw, how was the EURO for Wed Zwyts? I don't think life sucks because it hasn't snowed. That would be weird. Ill take a dusting but without at least a 2-4 or a lot of 1s back to back this will be a winter worth forgetting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well, with the inch I got a few days ago, I'm at least glad that Feb isn't a total shutout, and that I've now seen more snow events than in 01-02. I expect maybe another 1-2" event this month, but not anything heavier. The pattern really doesn't look very promising for that, but I'll enjoy whatever I get, anything that whitens the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 This past weekend's event was still kind of interesting, given the elevation aspect of it Saturday afternoon. Was raining, with a little snow mixed in, at 500ft where I live in the Middletown Valley (the valley that sits between Frederick and Hagerstown). Decided to drive the two miles to Pine Rock on Catoctin Mountain, which sits at 1200ft. Fun little drive, and a quick transition to moderate snow (and ground covered in snow) by the time I reached Pine Rock. For anyone in the Frederick/Hagerstown area, Catoctin Mountain has several peaks whose elevation is over 1,500 feet (and one that is pretty close to 2,000 feet). It's a short drive, and in marginal events like this past weekend, the difference in conditions can be quite dramatic over very short distances. Well worth the short drive, especially in a winter like this one. Catoctin Mountain: http://en.wikipedia....toctin_Mountain List Maryland mountains: http://en.wikipedia....ins_in_Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am more frustrated than anything else. I know we can't control the weather, but its just disappointing. Btw, how was the EURO for Wed Zwyts? I'm thinking about heading to deep creek if it still looks good....snow should fall all day and I think maybe heavy at times....maybe 4-6"? depending on elevation/location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 euro back off slightly on wednesday....FWIW it looks like a really nice event for Deep CReek/Preston/Tucker etc......and it would be day time as well....maybe 3-6"?.....might be worth a day drive for someone if they can do it.... It's certainly the wettest of the models. Too bad the surface temps are so warm, probably too warm on the euro but 37 to 39 for us during the day doen't buy us much. The mountains again may do OK. If the precip came in before dawn we'd have a chance but from what I can see that seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think it has degraded from what was forecast and from when I wrote that I thought our chances were improving for snow and that for a 2 week period, I thought the pattern would be a better than average one for a la nina winter. Now, I'd say it's devolving into an average one. The Atlantic side remains a problem. I think there is a better shot than not that we get something of note before it's all over for winter but I'm getting to the point that I might be wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think there is a better shot than not that we get something of note before it's all over for winter but I'm getting to the point that I might be wishcasting. in retrospect it seems the strengthening NINA has been the killer things just kept getting cooler after Christmas and still haven't peaked, or maybe just peaked we needed the NINA to start to fade after Christmas EDIT: this week's number at 3.4 is the coldest it has been all winter! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think there is a better shot than not that we get something of note before it's all over for winter but I'm getting to the point that I might be wishcasting. I wonder whether that was what my last CWG article was. I thought I had good reasons but fell for a model with no track record and on long range model guidance that has sucked all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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