WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS has the weekend storm, but it's going to be well OTS. Need the eastern trough and western ridge axes to be farther west to get a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The weekend storm looks good for Florida. Looks like we make it though mid Feb getting pretty much shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 way too early to punt on the weekend deal. The way the models, especially GFS, have been flipping around, I'd wait till at least 0z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS has the weekend storm, but it's going to be well OTS. Need the eastern trough and western ridge axes to be farther west to get a coastal. Yea, I was looking at that. There no reason to discount either solution at this point (i do have a knack for stating the obvious...). There some ridging poking into the east side of greenland. Not ideal or anything but it's still there. Finally getting an ec trough with a bit of a -nao and the storm is shunted (at least on this run anyway). Should be an interesting week nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the storm has been well ots on like 90% of runs its been on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the gfs is pretty craptacular till the superbomb that goes to our west. maybe we'll get a dusting on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the gfs is pretty craptacular till the superbomb that goes to our west. maybe we'll get a dusting on the backend. 288 is like the ultimate FU from Old Man Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I was told to not post anything regarding the CMC, but it tracks inland a bit over the FL panhandle and off ORF it appears... good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 288 is like the ultimate FU from Old Man Winter it seems rather extreme and somewhat unlikely but i guess it fits the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the gfs is pretty craptacular till the superbomb that goes to our west. maybe we'll get a dusting on the backend. Yeah, we can ask dtk to be sure, but I think that must be part of the GFS programming. Offer a snowporn run at 6z and then a dousing of coldwater at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I would need to see132... but the GGEM does look interesting. Nevertheless, I know its a crap model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z NAM BUFKIT for BWI 120208/1400Z 50 02003KT 38.3F 120208/1500Z 51 VRB02KT 38.5F RAIN 120208/1600Z 52 VRB02KT 42.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the storm has been well ots on like 90% of runs its been on. ride the canadian!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 even the canadian cant pound us how sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ride the canadian!!!!!! I think it has been right once in 5 years when it has been the outlier, i doubt this is number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 even the canadian cant pound us how sad Not like there is not enough time for other global models to change, haven't had much luck with getting systems north this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 even the canadian cant pound us how sad Based on this year's totals to date, that would be a pounding. Actually, it might be interesting to know what the Canadian was showing 24 hours ago so we could look at its trend on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm still watching wednesday...I don't care if the NAM has the main shield of precip over Quebec...The Euro did not and it was stronger and wetter....there are temp and timing issues of course, but if I am not being IMBY this could be something for the same folks who did well this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm still watching wednesday...I don't care if the NAM has the main shield of precip over Quebec...The Euro did not and it was stronger and wetter....there are temp and timing issues of course, but if I am not being IMBY this could be something for the same folks who did well this weekend I'll be looking at the 12Z euro. For my back yard, I think it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 im being totally imby the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Whether the GGEM ends up being right or not, it shows the kind of setup we need to see to get such a chance at a storm. The western ridge axis is farther west than the GFS, pretty near the Boise, ID, rule-of-thumb. In concert, the eastern trough axis is not as far west and the trough is nowhere near as deep as on the GFS. The GFS' deeper trough surpresses the storm and fast flow shoves it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 way too early to punt on the weekend deal. The way the models, especially GFS, have been flipping around, I'd wait till at least 0z Friday. agree...that doesnt mean I think a storm is a 50-50 proposition....It is well less than that but the euro is as close as it has been....the models have been awful at that range...model output shouldnt encourage or discourage us....Other things should, but not models at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Not like there is not enough time for other global models to change, haven't had much luck with getting systems north this year. ??? This past weekends event ended up being more N wrt precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 agree...that doesnt mean I think a storm is a 50-50 proposition....It is well less than that but the euro is as close as it has been....the models have been awful at that range...model output shouldnt encourage or discourage us....Other things should, but not models at this range the setup is iffy and has been for a while. we keep getting better looks at range that degrade as we close in. no one here would ever punt anything until it's 150% clear it won't happen. what else encourages or discourages? water vapor loops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120208/1500Z 51 08003KT 35.4F 120208/1800Z 54 VRB00KT 37.0F RASN 120208/2100Z 57 VRB01KT 38.5F RAIN 120209/0000Z 60 VRB01KT 31.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I got sucked in and wrote a CWG piece saying I thought we'd have a two week period with colder than normal temps and a better chance at getting snow than we've had. Now it looks like a one week period that probably will end up being dry. The euro ens mean 240 certainly does not look good. The gefs isn't as bad but has a positive nao. these are the same low resolution ensembles that gave me 0.75" of QPF 24 hours out from an event that gave me 0.08"....I'm not too concerned what they show at day 10.....that doesnt mean I am bullish...this winter is all swimming upstream...your pessimism regarding any 3"+ event has been entirely warranted and dead on This is more anecdotal, but my guess is other than maybe some random 0.2" snowshower event that coats a trashcan top, we have either 1 or 2 legit events before winter ends.....at some point one of these events has to pan out or else we get to march 15th with no events....but it is keeping me sane if any one individual event doesnt pan out....the event(s) could be 2/20 - 3/10 so I am not that concerned about the next week though I would be disheartened....I also like the idea of a big mid-late March event but think that might be the kind to give Trixie 6" and me 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 these are the same low resolution ensembles that gave me 0.75" of QPF 24 hours out from an event that gave me 0.08"....I'm not too concerned what they show at day 10.....that doesnt mean I am bullish...this winter is all swimming upstream...your pessimism regarding any 3"+ event has been entirely warranted and dead on This is more anecdotal, but my guess is other than maybe some random 0.2" snowshower event that coats a trashcan top, we have either 1 or 2 legit events before winter ends.....at some point one of these events has to pan out or else we get to march 15th with no events....but it is keeping me sane if any one individual event doesnt pan out....the event(s) could be 2/20 - 3/10 so I am not that concerned about the next week though I would be disheartened....I also like the idea of a big mid-late March event but think that might be the kind to give Trixie 6" and me 0.25" I know Don is non-commital for good reason about March at this point-- he still keeps on slipping in 3 years into his posts: 56, 76, 99. 3/76 is exactly what you're talking about that I hope doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 the setup is iffy and has been for a while. we keep getting better looks at range that degrade as we close in. no one here would ever punt anything until it's 150% clear it won't happen. what else encourages or discourages? water vapor loops? I'd say any signs other than models...persistence, winter so far, nina, scream against a storm and maybe climo leans slightly toward an event in the next 10 days....I don't expect the models to get a phase right at day 6....that doesn't mean it is 50-50 or a coin toss...it is not imo, but I don't need to see the models pasting us with QPF at 144 hours to buy a storm....even if say the GFS gave us an 1" of frozen at day 6-7, we wouldnt buy it....most winters, but especially this one, you will usually be right betting against a storm....doesn't mean most of us really know what's going to happen next weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120208/1500Z 51 08003KT 35.4F 120208/1800Z 54 VRB00KT 37.0F RASN 120208/2100Z 57 VRB01KT 38.5F RAIN 120209/0000Z 60 VRB01KT 31.8F For Dc, it's pretty simiar. The soundings looks like they would support really wet snow at 18Z for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 March 09 gave you 8-9" and me sunny skies though, and bringing my grand snow total to 2.5" for the season, LOL. I can't see how it won't snow at least something over the next 4 weeks. but it's no use stressing about it. we know...you mention it often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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