Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 yep, nearly every time it looked like snow here in central md, it was up near pa line and it ended up being mostly rain here. just that kind of winter The vort pass is OK. I guess it could be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The vort pass is OK. I guess it could be something. yes Ian that is true bud.. but.. the models have been terrible this winter, i guess well have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The vort pass is OK. I guess it could be something. It is in a good spot nevertheless for this run... and the sim radar at 60 is nice to look at... too bad we cant touch it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It is in a good spot nevertheless for this run well im waiting to see if euro and gfs at least come on board with NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 well im waiting to see if euro and gfs at least come on board with NAM. the euro has something too but mainly further nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS says you win flurries/sprinkes for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Lets see what the GFS has in store for the wknd... h5 low in Baja and some h5 energy in CA/AZ at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The NAM looks cold enough for snow to me. Cold enough at all levels with the exception of the surface. It can snow in the upper 30s, lower 40s and temps could trend cooler with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Wed may be our only hope this week... No wkend storm on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The NAM looks cold enough for snow to me. Cold enough at all levels with the exception of the surface. It can snow in the upper 30s, lower 40s and temps could trend cooler with these systems. i maybe should have said non accumulating snow. it could trend colder but there's no high to the north really. time for something other than conversational snow. or let's just end this battle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Wed may be our only hope this week... No wkend storm on gfs im not sure the weekend pattern is that great.. i like where it goes after more if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 i maybe should have said non accumulating snow. it could trend colder but there's no high to the north really. time for something other than conversational snow. or let's just end this battle.. If you do not like conversational snow then you picked the wrong city to live in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 If you do not like conversational snow then you picked the wrong city to live in. I'm 7" below normal-- actually probably more since I have elevation. Seeing snow flakes that melt on contact was so october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm 7" below normal. Seeing snow flakes that melt on contact was so october I am guaranteeing you will see 1 decent storm before the winter is out, 3" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am guaranteeing you will see 1 decent storm before the winter is out, 3" or bust. i think so too but i wouldnt be surprised if not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 168 is setting up a triple phase hecs later in the run. or more cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 i think so too but i wouldnt be surprised if not I would be surprised if we did not get one. If we do not i may have to take up severe weather season with you, Mark, Yoda and Kenny because i can not take waiting 9 months for winter and then getting total S**T ones like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Cmc looks like a no go too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 This weekends threat is by far the best potential of a decent storm, by far, in this putrid winter. The problem is we can't buy a phase to save our lives, and the pattern is such that leaving the energy cut off over Mexico/SW has been the rule this year and it's hard to think we will be the benefits of good fortune this time around. If we do get lucky- it'll be a quick shot of heavy snow, ala Feb 06'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I would be surprised if we did not get one. If we do not i may have to take up severe weather season with you, Mark, Yoda and Kenny because i can not take waiting 9 months for winter and then getting total S**T ones like this winter. the pattern is still too fast with too many shortwaves. it might be we need to time something perfectly. i guess when you get it wrong every time you gotta score eventually. the northern stream blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 long range gfs looks ok but not like the other night that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 0z Euro is more robust and south with Wednesday's event and slower than the GFS...I think the big issues will be timing and the boundary again....So that will need to be paid attention to....euro has us in the low 40s when the precip arrives mid afternoon on Wednesday and it tapers just after midnight, so it is a 10-12 hour window though I'm not sure it will precipitate that whole time.....about ~0.20" of QPF.....looks like it may be good for the same places that did well yesterday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 With just a couple of exceptions the 06Z Nam is basically a dry run for all of the US through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS also shows a dry run for the next 3 1/2 days with the only exceptions being CA and southern FL. The GFS and NAM both show a little something coming through late Wed but nothing more then sprinkles or a couple of flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS has nothing for this weekend. But it does have a couple of fantasy storms later in the run. A Miller B @ day 10 and 2 days later a Miller A. Edit: He!! it even brings in another Miller B 2 days after the Miller A. Could this be BB's 20 to 40 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The Euro shows possibility for Wed. We need to speed it up by about 6 hours though. I hope it keeps that look at 12z. Even the latest srefs have trended more organized for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 06Z is pure Snow Porn. It sets up a strong West based -nao after the first Miller B and holds it with also a 50/50 set up for each storm. It also looks as if it is setting up for another Miller A after the 3rd storm goes through. GFS Fantasy machine in full swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 06Z is pure Snow Porn. It sets up a strong West based -nao after the first Miller B and holds it with also a 50/50 set up for each storm. It also looks as if it is setting up for another Miller A after the 3rd storm goes through. GFS Fantasy machine in full swing. This time it will verify. Need to mark these words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Weather porn 200+ hours does not interest me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 This time it will verify. Need to mark these words Awesome - 384hr gives me 9 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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