PhineasC Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 There is a huge storm lurking just offshore next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 There is a huge storm lurking just offshore next weekend... The 0z GFS was a hit, with about 8-12" in central MD. Hopefully it's still worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 System still there... but slides out to sea next Sunday still worth watching but we need the northern stream to be a little less robust or the vortex to up in canada to be a little farther north to give the shouthern stream room to amplify a little more. That might cause its own temp problems but that would be better than having the southern stream system crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I like where that big girl sits for next weekend.... If this was 09 we'd be waxing the sleds already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 still worth watching but we need the northern stream to be a little less robust or the vortex to up in canada to be a little farther north to give the shouthern stream room to amplify a little more. That might cause its own temp problems but that would be better than having the southern stream system crushed. So, as usual, we need to thread the needle and there are many problems with the storm. Same old story around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I like where that big girl sits for next weekend.... If this was 09 we'd be waxing the sleds already Since this is 2012 I suggest you check your sump pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Right, I'm not putting myself through all this again for wet/warm or cold/dry. I want to see reasonable EURO and GFS agreement at 96-84 hours out... No CMC, RGEM, JMA, etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 In general, I really like the overall run of the GFS. Ridge out west is basically a permanent feature the entire run. If that holds, this is def a new pattern (and a good one). Flow is amplified throughout the run. Kinda senseless to get hung up on individual pieces of energy. I'm not very confident about having a stable ridge out west for 15 straight days though (especially when the euro is the opposite) but man, this is one good looking pattern to up our snow totals around here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTNHGFSLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Goodbye - AO Goodbye -NAO see you next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was really hoping all the models would get behind the idea of a gulf low atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was really hoping all the models would get behind the idea of a gulf low atleast ... It's nearly a week out. Even expecting that kind of consensus is outrageous especially in a year where the models have been bouncing around as much as they have. Come on...at least let rational thoughts prevail over weenie thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Being the 2nd La Nina in a row, will we have any surprises like March 2009. Before this winter is out I still believe we are going out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Well since the gulf of Mexico encompasses about 2000 square miles, asking for a simple slp somewhere in it doesn't seem that absurd. Read more, post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 18z has a slp east of HAT... Mod snow falling at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 18z has a slp east of HAT... Mod snow falling at 162 It does look pretty on that one frame but I think everyone is worn down from this winter. Nothing has worked out for us so unless it is on the Euro and GFS come Friday night the excitement level will be zilch. Just not our year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It does look pretty on that one frame but I think everyone is worn down from this winter. Nothing has worked out for us so unless it is on the Euro and GFS come Friday night the excitement level will be zilch. Just not our year Also even then, it's pretty east and also not a ton of precip either. Fringe not that it matters at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I think the main thing here is that there is "something". There's really no way to know what that may be. Remember that in the past weeks "event" we went from a full blown coastal to a low near Iowa to a weaker low tracking e-w south of us. This time it seems the GFS, and not the Euro, is throwing out at least some hope, but it probably the best bet to just focus on Wed and maybe a little light snow and by then we might have some idea about the weekend. Edit: GFS ens members don't support the op solution for the weekend at all. I guess if I'm going to post HPC disco when it says what I like, then I guess I'll post it when it isn't so pretty. CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 That's a pretty potent little 500v swinging through here Thursday morning too. Looks like the upper levels are bone dry. 3 of the latest gfs ens members do create what would this year be an "event" out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I think the main thing here is that there is "something". There's really no way to know what that may be. Remember that in the past weeks "event" we went from a full blown coastal to a low near Iowa to a weaker low tracking e-w south of us. This time it seems the GFS, and not the Euro, is throwing out at least some hope, but it probably the best bet to just focus on Wed and maybe a little light snow and by then we might have some idea about the weekend. Edit: GFS ens members don't support the op solution for the weekend at all. I guess if I'm going to post HPC disco when it says what I like, then I guess I'll post it when it isn't so CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ... It's nearly a week out. Even expecting that kind of consensus is outrageous especially in a year where the models have been bouncing around as much as they have. Come on...at least let rational thoughts prevail over weenie thoughts. You're asking for quite a lot there, Kenny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You're asking for quite a lot there, Kenny. :| lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Something brewing in the Gulf? Nam is bringing the southeast LP closer to the coast at 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 NAM snowy for wednesday, well best run we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Something brewing in the Gulf? Nam is bringing the southeast LP closer to the coast at 36 hrs. And the Gulf is starting to heat up later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 NAM snowy for wednesday, well best run we've seen so far. Keep them 1-2" events coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 NAM snowy for wednesday, well best run we've seen so far. i agree it does look promising for us in central maryland but i want to see more models agree before i get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 im pretty sure that's rain on the nam till about the pa border even there it's iffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 im pretty sure that's rain on the nam till about the pa border even there it's iffy yep, nearly every time it looked like snow here in central md, it was up near pa line and it ended up being mostly rain here. just that kind of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Verbatim the freezing line is just north of the mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Verbatim the freezing line is just north of the mason Dixon line. yep,.. and so goes the winter of 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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