Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 even the canadian cant pound us how sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ride the canadian!!!!!! I think it has been right once in 5 years when it has been the outlier, i doubt this is number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 even the canadian cant pound us how sad Not like there is not enough time for other global models to change, haven't had much luck with getting systems north this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 even the canadian cant pound us how sad Based on this year's totals to date, that would be a pounding. Actually, it might be interesting to know what the Canadian was showing 24 hours ago so we could look at its trend on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm still watching wednesday...I don't care if the NAM has the main shield of precip over Quebec...The Euro did not and it was stronger and wetter....there are temp and timing issues of course, but if I am not being IMBY this could be something for the same folks who did well this weekend I'll be looking at the 12Z euro. For my back yard, I think it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 im being totally imby the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Whether the GGEM ends up being right or not, it shows the kind of setup we need to see to get such a chance at a storm. The western ridge axis is farther west than the GFS, pretty near the Boise, ID, rule-of-thumb. In concert, the eastern trough axis is not as far west and the trough is nowhere near as deep as on the GFS. The GFS' deeper trough surpresses the storm and fast flow shoves it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Not like there is not enough time for other global models to change, haven't had much luck with getting systems north this year. ??? This past weekends event ended up being more N wrt precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 agree...that doesnt mean I think a storm is a 50-50 proposition....It is well less than that but the euro is as close as it has been....the models have been awful at that range...model output shouldnt encourage or discourage us....Other things should, but not models at this range the setup is iffy and has been for a while. we keep getting better looks at range that degrade as we close in. no one here would ever punt anything until it's 150% clear it won't happen. what else encourages or discourages? water vapor loops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120208/1500Z 51 08003KT 35.4F 120208/1800Z 54 VRB00KT 37.0F RASN 120208/2100Z 57 VRB01KT 38.5F RAIN 120209/0000Z 60 VRB01KT 31.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 these are the same low resolution ensembles that gave me 0.75" of QPF 24 hours out from an event that gave me 0.08"....I'm not too concerned what they show at day 10.....that doesnt mean I am bullish...this winter is all swimming upstream...your pessimism regarding any 3"+ event has been entirely warranted and dead on This is more anecdotal, but my guess is other than maybe some random 0.2" snowshower event that coats a trashcan top, we have either 1 or 2 legit events before winter ends.....at some point one of these events has to pan out or else we get to march 15th with no events....but it is keeping me sane if any one individual event doesnt pan out....the event(s) could be 2/20 - 3/10 so I am not that concerned about the next week though I would be disheartened....I also like the idea of a big mid-late March event but think that might be the kind to give Trixie 6" and me 0.25" I know Don is non-commital for good reason about March at this point-- he still keeps on slipping in 3 years into his posts: 56, 76, 99. 3/76 is exactly what you're talking about that I hope doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120208/1500Z 51 08003KT 35.4F 120208/1800Z 54 VRB00KT 37.0F RASN 120208/2100Z 57 VRB01KT 38.5F RAIN 120209/0000Z 60 VRB01KT 31.8F For Dc, it's pretty simiar. The soundings looks like they would support really wet snow at 18Z for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 he lives in New Jersey. not sure why he insists on posting in this subforum. Even though he is technically in NJ, he is also technically further south than some folks in this forum, so it would make sense as to why he's posting on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Yeah, we can ask dtk to be sure, but I think that must be part of the GFS programming. Offer a snowporn run at 6z and then a dousing of coldwater at 12z. Absolutely it is. I have to find some way to entertain myself in a crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 For Dc, it's pretty simiar. The soundings looks like they would support really wet snow at 18Z for what that is worth. Like Matt has said, if it does do anything, it would be very similar to Saturday's event. More north and west you are, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 we know...you mention it often hard to complain in this shenandoah winter we're having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I've enjoyed it, and I think most of the rest of the I-81 crew has as well. that's cool.. it's nowhere near that claim tho but im glad you like 1" events seperated by weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'd say any signs other than models...persistence, winter so far, nina, scream against a storm and maybe climo leans slightly toward an event in the next 10 days....I don't expect the models to get a phase right at day 6....that doesn't mean it is 50-50 or a coin toss...it is not imo, but I don't need to see the models pasting us with QPF at 144 hours to buy a storm....even if say the GFS gave us an 1" of frozen at day 6-7, we wouldnt buy it....most winters, but especially this one, you will usually be right betting against a storm....doesn't mean most of us really know what's going to happen next weekend.... yeah i just think the pattern has degraded from the original look so it's going to be harder than it might have seemed... tho i suppose that should be expected given the winter we've had. the idea that we're going to have a window of really great opportunity seems more any more a dream. i wish it wasnt but we're going to need to get luckier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Absolutely it is. I have to find some way to entertain myself in a crappy winter. I know it's completely anecdotal, but it seems like the GFS this winter has gone back to the old "warm runs vs. cold runs". 0z and 6z are "cold" runs and 12z and 18z are "warm" runs. No rigorous basis for this of course, just an observation from my seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 my initial claim, and reposting of it was tongue in cheek. and 1" events and even just flurries in the air are better than rain or nothing. that's a good and happy attitude to have. im glad for you. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I know it's completely anecdotal, but it seems like the GFS this winter has gone back to the old "warm runs vs. cold runs". 0z and 6z are "cold" runs and 12z and 18z are "warm" runs. No rigorous basis for this of course, just an observation from my seat. Maybe NCEP put their supercomputers in the sun so during the sunny times of the day (12z and 18z) the computers heat up and print out a warm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 and they got screwed on 1/9 and 1/22....doesnt matter...I don't begrudge anyone who enjoys and appreciates what they get versus endlessly bitching about what they dont get...so I support and appreciate trixie's point of view...Her attitude is sane and healthy... we usually have at least one event that's decent to this point which we have not unless you're blinded by futility. october was interesting but not here. we're all imby at heart even if we pretend not to be. if all i get is another 1" snowfall or two 1" snowfalls i'll enjoy them while they happen but im not going to act like they were awesome for a long time. even knowing our climo heavily it sucks. no one should be extremely thrilled being way below normal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm at a point where I'd almost like the shut out because we've never had one down here-- they have in Danville, never in Lynchburg. (Not counting the 3 T's of sleet and 2 T's of snow) If this weekend plays out as modeled-- outside the GEM, I'm in on a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I was up at 5:00 am anyway and watched the progress of the system on the news. that's why it hurts still. luckily I'm getting old so soon I will forget all about it. I actually had a wind-whipped snow shower move in about 3:30 a.m. that morning that looked great for 5 minutes and whitened the roof of the house. Then it stopped. Like you, that miss still stings me. I did drive down to Little Bennett Regional Park in Montgomery County that morning and walked the trails in a 6" cover. Then stopped to eat lunch in downtown Frederick and was treated to a nice snow shower. and they got screwed on 1/9 and 1/22....doesnt matter...I don't begrudge anyone who enjoys and appreciates what they get versus endlessly bitching about what they dont get...so I support and appreciate trixie's point of view...Her attitude is sane and healthy... That '08-'09 winter was only the second I could find in the records for this area that never managed a single 2" snowfall. Using the airport from 1926 onward, and good coop records back to the 1890's (the other was 1932, IIRC.) 10/29 is the only thing up until now standing in the way of this year being the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I among those who is insane and unhealthy so I agree 100%...I have been in a complete meltdown for 6 weeks now It just started for me. But I'm not really sure I believe anyone here feels that different. I mean yeah we will all take snow over none but a cartopper wont make us feel better for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It just started for me. But I'm not really sure I believe anyone here feels that different. I mean yeah we will all take snow over none but a cartopper wont make us feel better for long. I am more frustrated than anything else. I know we can't control the weather, but its just disappointing. Btw, how was the EURO for Wed Zwyts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 yeah i just think the pattern has degraded from the original look so it's going to be harder than it might have seemed... tho i suppose that should be expected given the winter we've had. the idea that we're going to have a window of really great opportunity seems more any more a dream. i wish it wasnt but we're going to need to get luckier than normal. I think it has degraded from what was forecast and from when I wrote that I thought our chances were improving for snow and that for a 2 week period, I thought the pattern would be a better than average one for a la nina winter. Now, I'd say it's devolving into an average one. The Atlantic side remains a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am more frustrated than anything else. I know we can't control the weather, but its just disappointing. Btw, how was the EURO for Wed Zwyts? I don't think life sucks because it hasn't snowed. That would be weird. Ill take a dusting but without at least a 2-4 or a lot of 1s back to back this will be a winter worth forgetting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well, with the inch I got a few days ago, I'm at least glad that Feb isn't a total shutout, and that I've now seen more snow events than in 01-02. I expect maybe another 1-2" event this month, but not anything heavier. The pattern really doesn't look very promising for that, but I'll enjoy whatever I get, anything that whitens the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 This past weekend's event was still kind of interesting, given the elevation aspect of it Saturday afternoon. Was raining, with a little snow mixed in, at 500ft where I live in the Middletown Valley (the valley that sits between Frederick and Hagerstown). Decided to drive the two miles to Pine Rock on Catoctin Mountain, which sits at 1200ft. Fun little drive, and a quick transition to moderate snow (and ground covered in snow) by the time I reached Pine Rock. For anyone in the Frederick/Hagerstown area, Catoctin Mountain has several peaks whose elevation is over 1,500 feet (and one that is pretty close to 2,000 feet). It's a short drive, and in marginal events like this past weekend, the difference in conditions can be quite dramatic over very short distances. Well worth the short drive, especially in a winter like this one. Catoctin Mountain: http://en.wikipedia....toctin_Mountain List Maryland mountains: http://en.wikipedia....ins_in_Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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