kurtstack Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What's your point? Please post comments, not just maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What's your point? Please post comments, not just maps... Overrunning potential.. Last weekend redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What's your point? Please post comments, not just maps... Sorry, I was just impressed by the placement and strength of the High. Can't get much better for a CAD event. Of course the later panels put the 850 mb low over chicago, so it all goes to crap in the later panels. Probably another snow/ice/rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Not that often you see a low move almost due north from New Orleans to Chicago when there's a 1040+ high over Lake Superior at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Sorry, I was just impressed by the placement and strength of the High. Can't get much better for a CAD event. Of course the later panels put the 850 mb low over chicago, so it all goes to crap in the later panels. Probably another snow/ice/rain event. If the low goes far enough west it might not break the CAD. Caveat is I have only seen the panel you posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 fwiw, end of the GFS run looks like an east coast weenie dream EDIT: I should have looked at the last panel! Well, 360 hrs did at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If the low goes far enough west it might not break the CAD. Caveat is I have only seen the panel you posted here. When I was looking at those frames from about 162 to 192 I kept thinking that what it showed screamed ice storm. We all know that there's very little potential for it to be correct this far out. The positive is that it shows something and a pattern swinging toward better. It could end up being a lot of things at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Double barrel 1045 canadian HP to the N and a juicy storm to the S...it's 6 days out but in early February thats beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I posted in the wrong thread earlier but I do agree that this is evolving into something that probably deserves some attention. It hurts not having a block in place because if we did, that second low wouldn't take a lakes track. It's closing off pretty far west though as modeled. It would be tough to get it to track south of us anyway. Nice cad sig with the first wave also. Could be something there as well. Ian made a good point too. If the second low cuts far enough west it wouldn't destroy temps through our column. We can get snow with a track like that and a nicely placed hp to the n&w. It could be a fun week. Anytime there is a big strong area of hp like that to the north and lp breaking out along the gulf coast it usually ends up with some sort of wintry precip around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 There is a great site that actually shows each matching event's 500's, total snowfall, rainfall, etc... It also does analogs for 3 or 4 different time periods (3, 5, 7, 10 days out????) out. My computer is in the shop right now so don't have access to it. You or anyone else wouldn't by chance be aware of what site I am talking about and the link to it? Are you referring to this link? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/analog.php MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS op is screwy post 144 hrs. Ensembles much colder and hint strongly at an east coast storm late next week/weekend. No Chicago bomb. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Are you referring to this link? http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php MDstorm Yep, that's the one. Thought it went to 10 days though. Been so long since I have really had a reason to look at it the details had escaped me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS op is screwy post 144 hrs. Ensembles much colder and hint strongly at an east coast storm late next week/weekend. No Chicago bomb. MDstorm Looking at the ensemble mean leads me to believe that we will see quite a spread on the members once again. But the op definetly looks like an outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 next Friday night could be fun if the ensemble is even close... whos doing the Euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 next Friday night could be fun if the ensemble is even close... whos doing the Euro pbp? Hey Millz how you liking it up north ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Hey Millz how you liking it up north ? its been nice.... the DMV and the Triangle have a lot in common so it wasn't too bad of a transition... I like the fact that I can keep that blue line to the south of me a little easier now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 next Friday night could be fun if the ensemble is even close... whos doing the Euro pbp? ...Euro splits into two events - a Thursday light precip event, followed by a warm up... Fri AM there's a closed low south of Texas, which.... (waiting on hr 168)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Day 6 and 7 12z EURO has a huge h5 low in the SW US... we have seen this rodeo before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 typical euro holding energy back.... not even a weenie statement.. it does it everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 BTW, the majority of the GFS individual members show an east coast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 i'm guessing that the euro solution of having an ULL spinning over the 4-corners for 4 days is not going to happen I see in the mos that it shows some cold precip day 7. It also took away our flurries Tomoorow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro holds too much back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 A good two thirds of the GFS ens show a storm in a week. 7 are coastals of differing variety. Long way to go. 6 days ago, about two thirds of the same ens. showed a storm for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 A good two thirds of the GFS ens show a storm in a week. 7 are coastals of differing variety. Long way to go. 6 days ago, about two thirds of the same ens. showed a storm for today. they were pretty close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 they were pretty close.. They were all over the place. A few were rain to snow.. a few snow... one was a transfer storm from OH/KY/WVA area to the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 sweet...the ULL on the euro makes it from New Mexico to Oklahoma in 5 days I guess the Pineapple Express is now the Pony express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 They were all over the place. A few were rain to snow.. a few snow... one was a transfer storm from OH/KY/WVA area to the NC coast i wouldnt put any more stock in the ensembles than the op in this range. pattern's getting better is all that really matters for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I don't think you can take much from is except that it doesstill have the pna pattern and it seems to watn to change the atlantic. I think that change is less certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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