Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 0z Euro - the day 8/9 threat may have some potential......the details aren't important now....I think cold air will be an issue....and a primary in the Ohio Valley.....I would say it is something to pay attention to though my WAG is it will be too warm....lots of time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 0z Euro - the day 8/9 threat may have some potential......the details aren't important now....I think cold air will be an issue....and a primary in the Ohio Valley.....I would say it is something to pay attention to though my WAG is it will be too warm....lots of time though It looks good.. Its nice to see that very strong high pressure (1040mb) showing up filtering the trough with fresh cold air. If that trough gets its act together and it goes negative a bit sooner, hopefully we can all cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 holla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 It looks good.. Its nice to see that very strong high pressure (1040mb) showing up filtering the trough with fresh cold air. If that trough gets its act together and it goes negative a bit sooner, hopefully we can all cash in it'd be nice if the Atlantic looked better but beggars..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If day 10 were to verify from the Canadian it would be just a touch . http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....4day/analog.php There is a great site that actually shows each matching event's 500's, total snowfall, rainfall, etc... It also does analogs for 3 or 4 different time periods (3, 5, 7, 10 days out????) out. My computer is in the shop right now so don't have access to it. You or anyone else wouldn't by chance be aware of what site I am talking about and the link to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 06Z GFS has an interesting solution for the potential event for late next week. Has a lead low that would bring snow to the area and then cuts off the 500's in the deep south and then brings it up the coast shortly thereafter. Temps look like they would be an issue though except for possibly under the 500 low. Long range still looks good and has a very cold look towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Pick your poison when it comes to the 06Z GFS ensemble members. They are all over the place in regards to a potential storm late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Pick your poison when it comes to the 06Z GFS ensemble members. They are all over the place in regards to a potential storm late next week. We might be entering into our best chance for snow starting late next week per 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Better do it.. Adam says winter is over after mid month. We know how right he was with the torch It's almost always over here after mid-Feb. Not going out on too small a limb with that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What's your point? Please post comments, not just maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What's your point? Please post comments, not just maps... Overrunning potential.. Last weekend redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What's your point? Please post comments, not just maps... Sorry, I was just impressed by the placement and strength of the High. Can't get much better for a CAD event. Of course the later panels put the 850 mb low over chicago, so it all goes to crap in the later panels. Probably another snow/ice/rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Not that often you see a low move almost due north from New Orleans to Chicago when there's a 1040+ high over Lake Superior at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Sorry, I was just impressed by the placement and strength of the High. Can't get much better for a CAD event. Of course the later panels put the 850 mb low over chicago, so it all goes to crap in the later panels. Probably another snow/ice/rain event. If the low goes far enough west it might not break the CAD. Caveat is I have only seen the panel you posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 fwiw, end of the GFS run looks like an east coast weenie dream EDIT: I should have looked at the last panel! Well, 360 hrs did at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If the low goes far enough west it might not break the CAD. Caveat is I have only seen the panel you posted here. When I was looking at those frames from about 162 to 192 I kept thinking that what it showed screamed ice storm. We all know that there's very little potential for it to be correct this far out. The positive is that it shows something and a pattern swinging toward better. It could end up being a lot of things at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Double barrel 1045 canadian HP to the N and a juicy storm to the S...it's 6 days out but in early February thats beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I posted in the wrong thread earlier but I do agree that this is evolving into something that probably deserves some attention. It hurts not having a block in place because if we did, that second low wouldn't take a lakes track. It's closing off pretty far west though as modeled. It would be tough to get it to track south of us anyway. Nice cad sig with the first wave also. Could be something there as well. Ian made a good point too. If the second low cuts far enough west it wouldn't destroy temps through our column. We can get snow with a track like that and a nicely placed hp to the n&w. It could be a fun week. Anytime there is a big strong area of hp like that to the north and lp breaking out along the gulf coast it usually ends up with some sort of wintry precip around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 There is a great site that actually shows each matching event's 500's, total snowfall, rainfall, etc... It also does analogs for 3 or 4 different time periods (3, 5, 7, 10 days out????) out. My computer is in the shop right now so don't have access to it. You or anyone else wouldn't by chance be aware of what site I am talking about and the link to it? Are you referring to this link? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/analog.php MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS op is screwy post 144 hrs. Ensembles much colder and hint strongly at an east coast storm late next week/weekend. No Chicago bomb. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Are you referring to this link? http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php MDstorm Yep, that's the one. Thought it went to 10 days though. Been so long since I have really had a reason to look at it the details had escaped me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS op is screwy post 144 hrs. Ensembles much colder and hint strongly at an east coast storm late next week/weekend. No Chicago bomb. MDstorm Looking at the ensemble mean leads me to believe that we will see quite a spread on the members once again. But the op definetly looks like an outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 next Friday night could be fun if the ensemble is even close... whos doing the Euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 next Friday night could be fun if the ensemble is even close... whos doing the Euro pbp? Hey Millz how you liking it up north ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Hey Millz how you liking it up north ? its been nice.... the DMV and the Triangle have a lot in common so it wasn't too bad of a transition... I like the fact that I can keep that blue line to the south of me a little easier now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 next Friday night could be fun if the ensemble is even close... whos doing the Euro pbp? ...Euro splits into two events - a Thursday light precip event, followed by a warm up... Fri AM there's a closed low south of Texas, which.... (waiting on hr 168)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Day 6 and 7 12z EURO has a huge h5 low in the SW US... we have seen this rodeo before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 i'm guessing that the euro solution of having an ULL spinning over the 4-corners for 4 days is not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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