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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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who knows?....it is a pattern we haven't seen yet...I imagine there might be some weak waves all week....wouldnt shock me to see a small -sn event this week....could happen anytime I think.....starting ASAP this steroids ridge is going to form and the PV will soon start to drop south

Sorry... was a bit frustrated with that post... my fault. Just tired of this winter really. I hope we geta good week or two, would be nice

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System still there... but slides out to sea next Sunday

still worth watching but we need the northern stream to be a little less robust or the vortex to up in canada to be a little farther north to give the shouthern stream room to amplify a little more. That might cause its own temp problems but that would be better than having the southern stream system crushed.

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still worth watching but we need the northern stream to be a little less robust or the vortex to up in canada to be a little farther north to give the shouthern stream room to amplify a little more. That might cause its own temp problems but that would be better than having the southern stream system crushed.

So, as usual, we need to thread the needle and there are many problems with the storm. Same old story around here.

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In general, I really like the overall run of the GFS. Ridge out west is basically a permanent feature the entire run. If that holds, this is def a new pattern (and a good one). Flow is amplified throughout the run. Kinda senseless to get hung up on individual pieces of energy. I'm not very confident about having a stable ridge out west for 15 straight days though (especially when the euro is the opposite) but man, this is one good looking pattern to up our snow totals around here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTNHGFSLoop.html

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I was really hoping all the models would get behind the idea of a gulf low atleast

... It's nearly a week out. Even expecting that kind of consensus is outrageous especially in a year where the models have been bouncing around as much as they have. Come on...at least let rational thoughts prevail over weenie thoughts.

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