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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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It's going to get cold, but I question how much moisture we can squeeze in with us being totally dominated by the polar jet/ Northern stream.

yeah was thinking that too but there might be a few split stream moments as well. if we get a steroids block like that it might not want to go away that fast.

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what happened to the adam/gibbsfreeny twitter torch bash?

still hard to believe much at range... tho that's a huge something even if it backed off a bit. maybe it will be transient... tho the energy guys do get off on their torches.

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it wasnt even flurries...it was like fine sand-like pixie dust that coated the cartops like ash from a Volcano that erupted in 40N and buried them in feet of Lava

Ha that's actually a pretty solid description

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12z euro has some very light precip wed night then dry the rest of the run.. has a storm offshore feb 10 but pretty far offshore. still pretty chilly second half of the run with moderation late.. also has ridge building into greenland. height anomalies are quite significant by the end of the run.

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00z GFS shows a Mega 564DM Greenland block. If we can't get snow in that pattern we should kill ourselves.

Just to make it clear, when I make posts like this I am repeating the models forecast, not my forecast.

Never have I been in favor of anything more than 0" of snow every day from now until 12/1/2012. And you should assume I haven't backed down from that call unless I utter the secret catch phrase.

The secret catchphrase is "I found my marbles".

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0z is a pretty good snowstorm... Larry C seems to think it could be a biggie... It's been modeled for about a week and a lot of the good miller a's start like that... Looks to have a rich arctic air source so doubt temps are an issue.... I just hope the models miraculously lock in and we can track through the week.

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