Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Op Gfs and euro exact same qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro usually runs a little warm so that is good news. It would probably be mostly snow, 2" would be the blizzard of the winter. Runs a little dry too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Runs a little dry too True as well, it is a shame i am to tired to wait up for the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 temps are fine...colder than GFS....in the mid to upper 30s quickly after dark under precip and then still dropping...we need moisture....temps are fine once it gets going So 2-4" is a good bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Randy i hope you are busy picking out your new avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We might be above average snow for feb 6 by sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 lolwut? Oh sorry i did not mean for DC i was thinking where i am going to be, i am like a typical weenie very IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 you get like 0.2" QPF from the 2 most skilled models and it starts falling into a 42-45 degree air mass in the afternoon as possible rain...Based on euro/GFS alone I would go ~1" for your backyard I am going to be in Massanutten,VA this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 thats a good spot maybe, but you may have precip type issues.... I am desperate at this point, even if i lose some QPF to rain i would love to see a few inches that would make my week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 00z Ukie went the wrong way...completely whiffed on the two streams and suppressed everything south. Classic move from the second best model. Maybe next it will hit Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 euro phases too late....I wouldnt assume it is right.....it is a weird synoptic setup as Will said but I think a good one in many ways.... Glad the Euro didn't walk this back at least. That seems to be the usual pattern once we get some hope going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am hoping it's the first option, you have a better memory than me but do you ever remember the ensembles looking this good and we actually got nothing? We have been let down by epic ensemble consensus before. Happened last Dec 26 with the huge SREFs bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 All the blocking is in eastern Europe where record frigid temps and epic snows are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Better run on nam for you guys down there. Look like a phase to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM phased... GFS horrible looking to me, unphased and strung out... I'm sure GFS will be right. On to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 9 of the 12 GFS members are good. That's a pretty good start. The euro is a little better, the NAM made a pretty big move. Hope things stay with us this morning, but I think it may be tonight before we really see everything fall in line. As many have said here, this one seems to be complex and very sensitive to any small change. One thing is absolutely certain. The GFS ensemble has been bullish and steady. I guess this is a good test for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 One thing I have noticed from the past 24 hrs of GFS runs is that the southern energy, that is left behind after the no phase or partial phase from the weekend storm, gets hung back longer with each subsequent run. With northern energy dropping down behind it roughly 18-24 hours later you have to wonder, if this trend continues, could there be some potential with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I really liked the 6Z NAM all things considered that is showing real potential "if" the trend can continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 for ji http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 One thing I have noticed from the past 24 hrs of GFS runs is that the southern energy, that is left behind after the no phase or partial phase from the weekend storm, gets hung back longer with each subsequent run. With northern energy dropping down behind it roughly 18-24 hours later you have to wonder, if this trend continues, could there be some potential with that? Unlike the OP the GFS ensembles, with their more phased solution, don't seem to like the idea of leaving much if any energy behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 P007 on the 06z GFS ensembles please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 P007 on the 06z GFS ensembles please Post please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Post please No please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Cool.... Everybody Is so rude. Must be the lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 DTs map seems reasonable to me with the sharp northern cutoff...who knows exactly where at this point but it makes sense....yesterdays rain pretty much did the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Cool.... Everybody Is so rude. Must be the lack of snow. It's actually the fact that posting one member of the GFS ensemble is very silly, especially when it's the one showing the most snow (which is also the least likely solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It's actually the fact that posting one member of the GFS ensemble is very silly, especially when it's the one showing the most snow (which is also the least likely solution). Yeah...Are you Yoda also? J/w that's who I was talking to? Some people have multiple names I believe. Well Ellinwood keep up the good work, enjoy reading your analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Cool.... Everybody Is so rude. Must be the lack of snow. we have enough ridiculous posters in this subforum, either add something worth while or go back to where you came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Cool.... Everybody Is so rude. Must be the lack of snow. You are in the wrong forum. Second time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 You are in the wrong forum. Second time. Adam was being "mean" to him in the PHL forum because YorkPA was being too much of a weenie, guess he decided our subforum was the next best place for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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