mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. exactly what I was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nice run...the column is an issue, but I doubt we are getting rain at 3am or whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Things are looking up 12Z will be telling. Sorry Randy i had to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Yes... a move toward its ensembles... will be interesting to see what they do later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yes... a move toward its ensembles... will be interesting to see what they do later it does look pretty much like p006 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Its actually a bit better than I made it sound here...6h its trying to really blow it up before it exits stage right. The temps are marginal though where the meaningful QPF is. Its a step in the positive direction for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nice run...the column is an issue, but I doubt we are getting rain at 3am or whatever Yeah..can't call it a trend yet..but at least the GFS is moving in the right direction....until 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nice run...the column is an issue, but I doubt we are getting rain at 3am or whatever hrs 54 to 60 look nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 it does look pretty much like p006 now. Don't worry, soon that sweetheart will be showing 10" to 14" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 EDIT..just saw the latest panel...much better run than I thought..we worry about temps later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Thank god this is coming in around bar hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Don't worry, soon that sweetheart will be showing 10" to 14" for us. took more of a jump on board than i would have expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 took more of a jump on board than i would have expected If we keep getting these moves, Randy will have to change his avatar to one i pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Wow... Almost turned into something real nice there at the end.... She's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F03%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=069&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 hrs 54 to 60 look nice it is a good run if you can ignore how warm it is....the timing is good though...like a 4pm to 9am event.....snow and 33-34.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Wow... Almost turned into something real nice there at the end.... She's close dry.....why I ought to.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Its actually a bit better than I made it sound here...6h its trying to really blow it up before it exits stage right. The temps are marginal though where the meaningful QPF is. Its a step in the positive direction for sure though. Is a north move lock step with warmer 850s? Like another push and it is rain or will the CAD hold in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 it is a good run if you can ignore how warm it is....the timing is good though...like a 4pm to 9am event.....snow and 33-34.... Agree... prob would be a wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 dry.....why I ought to.... Haha I was trying to go ahead and prepare myself... You did good kid, you did real good...in all seriousness if you follow the latitude pattern, the gfs has juiced up the qpf all along 35 to 40 north... I think this trends wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It may not hold, but I don't see how anyone can't be encouraged by the days turn of events. Is there any model out there that hasn't trended this toward a wetter/stronger solution? Well, maybe the NAM hasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 You guys may finally be able to see me smile Sunday morning: http://www.massresort.com/webcam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Agree... prob would be a wet snow? i'll post a sounding in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Is a north move lock step with warmer 850s? Like another push and it is rain or will the CAD hold in your opinion? I would actually think a better phase (to a point) would make it colder as heights would crash...you don't want it phased to the point where the sfc low is in Pittsburgh, but most of the runs that gave >3" of snow like the 12z Canadian and several of the GEFS members where phased a little better. Its not a typical setup...and we wouldn't expect it to be anyway with a bizarre Rex Block over the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 i like a snowier than avg march with what ive looked at tho there really is basically no correlation even if it seems like there should be. of course a snowier than avg march is easy to do if it actually snows of consequence at least here. Yeah.. what did interest me was RodneyS's analysis of torch Decembers straight through February's. We do get those cold months where we don't get much snow at all (the 1/09 style months). Not saying that's what you did, but just speaking for myself- when I just look at snowfall, it sometimes obscures the what actually happened in each month. So a winter with one cold/dry month doesn't compare well to a winter that was warm until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It may not hold, but I don't see how anyone can't be encouraged by the days turn of events. Is there any model out there that hasn't trended this toward a wetter/stronger solution? Yes...it is awesome...just wish we had more wiggle room on 850s...wow, what a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 00z Ukie went the wrong way...completely whiffed on the two streams and suppressed everything south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I would actually think a better phase (to a point) would make it colder as heights would crash...you don't want it phased to the point where the sfc low is in Pittsburgh, but most of the runs that gave >3" of snow like the 12z Canadian and several of the GEFS members where phased a little better. Its not a typical setup...and we wouldn't expect it to be anyway with a bizarre Rex Block over the middle of the country. Rgr...tks for the confidence boost...it does look pretty but a blue 540 line running through EZF would be reason to break out the blue label Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yes...it is awesome...just wish we had more wiggle room on 850s...wow, what a trend Seems like we lose more snow here (in an actual event where snow is possible) to lack of precip than lack of cold. I know that's what happened to me about 2 weeks ago, it happened in early December, it happened last January, it happened in March of 09, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yes...it is awesome...just wish we had more wiggle room on 850s...wow, what a trend 850mb and up is not an issue with this event at all...it is 900mb to the surface....this is actually a better problem to have imo.....especially with a night time event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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