ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This is a post from Tony over in the Philly thread, i though it was a very good read: Part of this is evolution also (and we saw how the 12z gfs run on 12/24 was right after a poor initialization), but the can ggem 500mb 12hr forecast is not verifying well over Eastern Alaska and northern Canada off the 00z raobs, I see a 10m and a pair of 30m height errors meanwhile the gfs is spot on with two and a 20m error with the third. Based on those errors, that northern stream trof is not as sharp as depicted by the canadian forecast. The problem though is what happens to the kicker and that is still in the Pacific south of Alaska. On the Canadian, the forecast closed low by sunday morning is 100 meters deeper than the gfs and that is what drives the ridging in front of it and then permits the not so well initialized lead short wave to phase more. That kicker comes inland 00z sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The optimist crowd really needs the 00Z suite to look decent. Even if it does, I don't think my confidence level would increase. On the other hand, if it comes in much drier/weaker than previous runs, the confidence will take a hit. If it continues to stay close, then I think being optimistic a little longer isn't a bad play. Being optimistic has no downside, especially in a winter like this. If it doesn't snow, it isn't like it will be a shock to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Even if it does, I don't think my confidence level would increase. On the other hand, if it comes in much drier/weaker than previous runs, the confidence will take a hit. If it continues to stay close, then I think being optimistic a little longer isn't a bad play. Being optimistic has no downside, especially in a winter like this. If it doesn't snow, it isn't like it will be a shock to the system. Where exactly do you live in VA?, i am going to the Massanutten resort for the next 5 days and i am trying to figure out the climo there to see if they have a better chance of seeing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Eh, the event is still more than 48 hours out which is outside the NAM's wheelhouse and on top of that, it has had an absolutely atrocious winter so far. I wouldn't put expectations much higher than a coating either, but the reason wouldn't be because of what the NAM shows right now. The SREFs actually do have like 10% chace of an inch for DC metro which is not bad in this marginal setup at this time range. Down toward CHO its in the 25-30% range. Expectations in our area are like marriages, they are almost sure to let you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 i guess this is a good starter winter. i got fooled by the feb 06 storm 10 days after i got here... Yup, and I get where feast-and-famine comes from. Really, the immediate past sequence of seasons have been something else-- take away 09/10, and you're left with 06/07 (well below avg), 07/08 (terrible), 08/09 (bad one snowstorm season), and 10/11 (frustrating near miss season with one storm). The difference with this sequence and past real stinker stretches is that we at least had 09/10. A glance across DC snow history shows some really rotten rotten stretches- '49-'57 was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This is a post from Tony over in the Philly thread, i though it was a very good read: Part of this is evolution also (and we saw how the 12z gfs run on 12/24 was right after a poor initialization), but the can ggem 500mb 12hr forecast is not verifying well over Eastern Alaska and northern Canada off the 00z raobs, I see a 10m and a pair of 30m height errors meanwhile the gfs is spot on with two and a 20m error with the third. Based on those errors, that northern stream trof is not as sharp as depicted by the canadian forecast. The problem though is what happens to the kicker and that is still in the Pacific south of Alaska. On the Canadian, the forecast closed low by sunday morning is 100 meters deeper than the gfs and that is what drives the ridging in front of it and then permits the not so well initialized lead short wave to phase more. That kicker comes inland 00z sat. He also said this: The GFS ensemble members are run at a courser resolution, so maybe that's why they are quicker to phase. But.......the resolution of the op can ggem and ukmet are not exactly coarse in themselves. Ironically the can ggem ensemble members support the op gfs more while the 18z gfs ensemble members are more inclined toward the op can ggem. The NAEFS pops jumped upward, with a tightening of the pop gradient. Without sounding too optimistic, I think you have to leave the door open on this one yet. Pretty complicated with rex blocks and phasing (or lack thereof), kind of smacks of the modeling issues that occurred with boxing day, don't have to slow streams down too much without getting a plethora of different solutions. We may not know a definitive answer til the 00z run on Saturday. And, HPC said this: THE MAIN MODIFICATION TO THE FINAL PROGS IN THIS PACKAGE WAS OVER AND OFFSHORE THE E COAST STATES SUN/MON DAYS 3-4...WHERE WE PLAYED UP THE INTENSITY OF THE SYS CROSSING TN/NC/VA AS PER THE 12Z/02 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF In total, I don't think that increases our chances for snow. But, it does say that the possibility exists, and is not dependent upon what the models say 2.5 days in advance. BTW, I live 75 miles almost due north of Massanutten. They would seem to be in line for more precip, but they'd likely have warmer temps as well. Maybe not on the mountain, but down in Harrisonburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Even if it does, I don't think my confidence level would increase. On the other hand, if it comes in much drier/weaker than previous runs, the confidence will take a hit. If it continues to stay close, then I think being optimistic a little longer isn't a bad play. Being optimistic has no downside, especially in a winter like this. If it doesn't snow, it isn't like it will be a shock to the system. Enough with the incessant rationalizations.. Post if you have something of substance to say about a storm threat for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 BTW, I live 75 miles almost due north of Massanutten. They would seem to be in line for more precip, but they'd likely have warmer temps as well. Maybe not on the mountain, but down in Harrisonburg. Well i am staying on the mountain so maybe i can get lucky and see some half decent snow for the first time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yup, and I get where feast-and-famine comes from. Really, the immediate past sequence of seasons have been something else-- take away 09/10, and you're left with 06/07 (well below avg), 07/08 (terrible), 08/09 (bad one snowstorm season), and 10/11 (frustrating near miss season with one storm). The difference with this sequence and past real stinker stretches is that we at least had 09/10. A glance across DC snow history shows some really rotten rotten stretches- '49-'57 was brutal. I liked 06-07. 1st half of winter was brutal but I got 12" in FMA alone in 7 events. We aren't seeing that kind of flip being progged though so I think we will have to see bigger events of we want to realize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Enough with the incessant rationalizations.. Post if you have something of substance to say about a storm threat for a change. Thanks for the tip, moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Would be nice IMO if the GFS OP would nudge toward the ensembles on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I liked 06-07. 1st half of winter was brutal but I got 12" in FMA alone in 7 events. We aren't seeing that kind of flip being progged though so I think we will have to see bigger events of we want to realize that. Nope- we haven't been... but Don has been slipping in 3 intriguing March analogs lately ('56, '76, '99). I actually do think that if February is still very disappointing, we'll have to brace for the March with sloppy snow(s) that could have ridiculous gradients across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Would be nice IMO if the GFS OP would nudge toward the ensembles on this run... You better go start praying right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That bullseye in SE LA 18 hrs in makes me think the gfs may already be having convective feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Pretty amazing the differences between the Canadian models and some of the OP American models...48h RGEM at 00z is really phased well and would probably extrapolate to a pretty good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Pretty amazing the differences between the Canadian models and some of the OP American models...48h RGEM at 00z is really phased well and would probably extrapolate to a pretty good event. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg yeah, the difference is pretty noticeable. Nice phase job going on with the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_048.jpg yeah, the difference is pretty noticeable. Nice phase job going on with the RGEM well, it's rain falling at 48 hrs I know, I know, it'll change (or so the theory goes), but counting on rain to snow for us any year, let alone this dog, is not something we can count on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 Edit: gonna be a better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 better than 18Z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Beat me to it, damn your fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If Will says it looks decent i may start to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 I'm not picking on either of you, but this makes me miss the days of non-sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 gfs wetter and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Nope- we haven't been... but Don has been slipping in 3 intriguing March analogs lately ('56, '76, '99). I actually do think that if February is still very disappointing, we'll have to brace for the March with sloppy snow(s) that could have ridiculous gradients across the region. i like a snowier than avg march with what ive looked at tho there really is basically no correlation even if it seems like there should be. of course a snowier than avg march is easy to do if it actually snows of consequence at least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm not picking on either of you, but this makes me miss the days of non-sub forums. I'm comparing it to 18Z don;t know what he's comparing it to it's a 4-shiat system so you're not going to get a lot of qpf out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Well, I will say this...at h5, it is somewhat of an improvement with the northern piece closer to phasing than 18 or 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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