MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 hahaha just looked at p006.... give 9 inches to the DC area... what a joke.... hugging hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 new SREF looks unimpressive with qpf .1+/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 new SREF looks unimpressive with qpf .1+/- I always thought the SREF was a model best used inside 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I always thought the SREF was a model best used inside 48 hours? one hears a lot of different things about the SREFs over the period of a season regardless of its best time frame, we would certainly want to see qpf increase to more than .1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 new SREF looks unimpressive with qpf .1+/- Mitch, you have been uncharacteristically negative on this one. Look at the trend. For your comparison. (Damn, can't get the pics right) Compare 3z Sun morning to 21z Sun morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Mitch, you have been uncharacteristically negative on this one. Look at the trend. For your comparison. well founded I believe certainly I want it to snow, but this is a "needle the thread" situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In the world of reality... Nothing is screaming more than a pedestrian event at this point if anything. Reality is that many are hugging some models with an uninpressive track record. Theres still a couple days to hammer this down though. Shame as the EURO and others aren't on the wagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Even doing 20 winters there are only 4 above average. A few are not that far off but still below. (for full disclosure the ten prior to those 20 had six above average) The median for 10 years is 11.3 The median for 20 years is 10.9 There has been somewhat lesser snowfall recently in DC, and the spread between mean and median snowfall has widened, but not all that dramatically: Last 100-year mean: 16.7 inches Last 100-year median: 14.4 inches Last 30-year mean: 15.6 inches Last 30-year median: 11.7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 00z NAM doesn't seem to like the snow idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 i think he's on some sort of trip. details are foggy. He has no allegiance to us weenies who hang on his every word like he is Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 new SREF looks unimpressive with qpf .1+/- sounds about right if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 In the world of reality... Nothing is screaming more than a pedestrian event at this point if anything. Reality is that many are hugging some models with an uninpressive track record. Theres still a couple days to hammer this down though. Shame as the EURO and others aren't on the wagon. the euro is on the wagon pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 0z NAM once again has become Dr.NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Damn how i wish i was living in Denver right now , 1 to 2 feet they expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM looks good and then it just dies on us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 living on the edge is never good. we need north trends and not just random well-matched blips. oh so slight chance there is some phase of the streams to give a mod event but it's much more likely we either get a general light snow, rain or a miss to the south. there's just not much real upward mobility unless you believe in miracles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 living on the edge is never good. we need north trends and not just random well-matched blips. oh so slight chance there is some phase of the streams to give a mod event but it's much more likely we either get a general light snow, rain or a miss to the south. there's just not much real upward mobility unless you believe in miracles. from what I've seen out of the models that really dig the phase i.e.- GGEM, p006 of the GFS , etc, is that theyre pretty good events, on the order of 7-9... but thats in the weenie realm and pretty much the ceiling of where this could go... I'm just hoping for an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Mitch, you have been uncharacteristically negative on this one. Look at the trend. For your comparison. (Damn, can't get the pics right) Compare 3z Sun morning to 21z Sun morning The optimist crowd really needs the 00Z suite to look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 from what I've seen out of the models that really dig the phase i.e.- GGEM, p006 of the GFS , etc, is that theyre pretty good events, on the order of 7-9... but thats in the weenie realm and pretty much the ceiling of where this could go... I'm just hoping for an inch i would hope for an expansive light area of precip with maybe a few bands that bullseye someone to like .25". caveat is the euro did move considerably north and if it did so again we could have a solid ~.2-.25" across the area. the pattern definitely argues more for squashing than being amazing.. but sometimes luck really breaks hard. we'd probably want to see that convincingly soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The optimist crowd really needs the 00Z suite to look decent. Starting with the GFS. GGEM is prob overdoing and way wrong... didn't check the UKIE though I think Will said it was okay... a Euro hold would be nice with a slightly cooler profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 from what I've seen out of the models that really dig the phase i.e.- GGEM, p006 of the GFS , etc, is that theyre pretty good events, on the order of 7-9... but thats in the weenie realm and pretty much the ceiling of where this could go... I'm just hoping for an inch Not sure anywhere north of EZF even gets flurries on the NAM. Sharp cut off events are painful. I am usually on the south side of those watching MD cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Starting with the GFS. GGEM is prob overdoing and way wrong... didn't check the UKIE though I think Will said it was okay... a Euro hold would be nice with a slightly cooler profile The Ukie i think showed an inch or 2 for our area, i think it is not unreasonable to hope we finally get a break around here and end up with 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the euro is on the wagon pretty much I think he still thinks that "on board" means .5"+ QPF for the area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The Ukie i think showed an inch or 2 for our area, i think it is not unreasonable to hope we finally get a break around here and end up with 2". I think its unreasonable to expect more than a dusting right now IMO. the NAM is supposedly starting to come into its wheelhouse... and being shutout on it is not a good start for the 00z model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think its unreasonable to expect more than a dusting right now IMO. the NAM is supposedly starting to come into its wheelhouse... and being shutout on it is not a good start for the 00z model suite. I do not even expect flurries, i said hope. Actually where i am for the weekend i expect to at least see some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think its unreasonable to expect more than a dusting right now IMO. the NAM is supposedly starting to come into its wheelhouse... and being shutout on it is not a good start for the 00z model suite. Eh, the event is still more than 48 hours out which is outside the NAM's wheelhouse and on top of that, it has had an absolutely atrocious winter so far. I wouldn't put expectations much higher than a coating either, but the reason wouldn't be because of what the NAM shows right now. The SREFs actually do have like 10% chace of an inch for DC metro which is not bad in this marginal setup at this time range. Down toward CHO its in the 25-30% range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think he still thinks that "on board" means .5"+ QPF for the area..... i guess this is a good starter winter. i got fooled by the feb 06 storm 10 days after i got here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think the way the rain scooted South and East of here....both batches.... speaks volumes for what any precip will do this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 living on the edge is never good. we need north trends and not just random well-matched blips. oh so slight chance there is some phase of the streams to give a mod event but it's much more likely we either get a general light snow, rain or a miss to the south. there's just not much real upward mobility unless you believe in miracles. A general light snow would be fine with me. It's not like I think we can get a foot. You mentioned a complex pattern earlier, and the models have certainly had difficulties the last few days. I wonder how close we'll have to get for the models to get a good handle on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If the NAM is right from 48-60, LOL , Staunton to Monterey picks up a 2-4" daytime event that ends by 7 p.m. Hmm, 2 hour Saturday drive down I-81 from here...gonna have to watch that area on future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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