Yeoman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Even if it does, I don't think my confidence level would increase. On the other hand, if it comes in much drier/weaker than previous runs, the confidence will take a hit. If it continues to stay close, then I think being optimistic a little longer isn't a bad play. Being optimistic has no downside, especially in a winter like this. If it doesn't snow, it isn't like it will be a shock to the system. Enough with the incessant rationalizations.. Post if you have something of substance to say about a storm threat for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 BTW, I live 75 miles almost due north of Massanutten. They would seem to be in line for more precip, but they'd likely have warmer temps as well. Maybe not on the mountain, but down in Harrisonburg. Well i am staying on the mountain so maybe i can get lucky and see some half decent snow for the first time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Enough with the incessant rationalizations.. Post if you have something of substance to say about a storm threat for a change. Thanks for the tip, moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Would be nice IMO if the GFS OP would nudge toward the ensembles on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I liked 06-07. 1st half of winter was brutal but I got 12" in FMA alone in 7 events. We aren't seeing that kind of flip being progged though so I think we will have to see bigger events of we want to realize that. Nope- we haven't been... but Don has been slipping in 3 intriguing March analogs lately ('56, '76, '99). I actually do think that if February is still very disappointing, we'll have to brace for the March with sloppy snow(s) that could have ridiculous gradients across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Would be nice IMO if the GFS OP would nudge toward the ensembles on this run... You better go start praying right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That bullseye in SE LA 18 hrs in makes me think the gfs may already be having convective feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Pretty amazing the differences between the Canadian models and some of the OP American models...48h RGEM at 00z is really phased well and would probably extrapolate to a pretty good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Pretty amazing the differences between the Canadian models and some of the OP American models...48h RGEM at 00z is really phased well and would probably extrapolate to a pretty good event. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg yeah, the difference is pretty noticeable. Nice phase job going on with the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_048.jpg yeah, the difference is pretty noticeable. Nice phase job going on with the RGEM well, it's rain falling at 48 hrs I know, I know, it'll change (or so the theory goes), but counting on rain to snow for us any year, let alone this dog, is not something we can count on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 Edit: gonna be a better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 better than 18Z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Beat me to it, damn your fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If Will says it looks decent i may start to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS doesn't look bad at 42 hrs with precip placement and 0-line GFS looking kind of dry thru 42 I'm not picking on either of you, but this makes me miss the days of non-sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Nope- we haven't been... but Don has been slipping in 3 intriguing March analogs lately ('56, '76, '99). I actually do think that if February is still very disappointing, we'll have to brace for the March with sloppy snow(s) that could have ridiculous gradients across the region. i like a snowier than avg march with what ive looked at tho there really is basically no correlation even if it seems like there should be. of course a snowier than avg march is easy to do if it actually snows of consequence at least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm not picking on either of you, but this makes me miss the days of non-sub forums. I'm comparing it to 18Z don;t know what he's comparing it to it's a 4-shiat system so you're not going to get a lot of qpf out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Well, I will say this...at h5, it is somewhat of an improvement with the northern piece closer to phasing than 18 or 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. exactly what I was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Things are looking up 12Z will be telling. Sorry Randy i had to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Yes... a move toward its ensembles... will be interesting to see what they do later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yes... a move toward its ensembles... will be interesting to see what they do later it does look pretty much like p006 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS OP made a bit of a move toward the more robust guidance, but not enough on this run to give much...but there is some measurable now where 18z was dry. Its actually a bit better than I made it sound here...6h its trying to really blow it up before it exits stage right. The temps are marginal though where the meaningful QPF is. Its a step in the positive direction for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nice run...the column is an issue, but I doubt we are getting rain at 3am or whatever Yeah..can't call it a trend yet..but at least the GFS is moving in the right direction....until 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nice run...the column is an issue, but I doubt we are getting rain at 3am or whatever hrs 54 to 60 look nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 it does look pretty much like p006 now. Don't worry, soon that sweetheart will be showing 10" to 14" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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