stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 idk if it would end up being cold enough, but the 18Z RGEM has a nice slug of moisture to our west looking to hit us we'll need some help with the building High pressure to the north http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_048.png http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif EDIT: here's the animated precip map http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_....png Hmm, i like that look...High is trying to build down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hmm, i like that look...High is trying to build down a bit If we get 3" from this storm do you promise to change your avatar?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If we get 3" from this storm do you promise to change your avatar?. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yes Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Excellent. 18Z GFS says "get used to it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18Z GFS says "get used to it" i would wait for the 00z gfs before you go into your usual panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Through 72 hours the GFS is sheared out and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z looks like 12z.. Onto 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 0z will be sheared out as well, this just isn't our little storm or really our winter this year. We mise well just get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 i would wait for the 00z gfs before you go into your usual panic check your coordinates... this is Earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If you can't be encouraged by this, then you can't be encouraged. From HPC. THE MAIN MODIFICATION TO THE FINAL PROGS IN THIS PACKAGE WAS OVER AND OFFSHORE THE E COAST STATES SUN/MON DAYS 3-4...WHERE WE PLAYED UP THE INTENSITY OF THE SYS CROSSING TN/NC/VA AS PER THE 12Z/02 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF. OTHERWISE FINAL PROGS KEPT THE IDEAS OF THE UPDATED PRELIM. WE MAINTAINED THE 40-40 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS 20% FEFS MEAN BLEND FOR DAYS 6-7. THIS PRESERVED THE CHARACTER OF THE AGREEABLE SHORT WAVE FEATURES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. EARLIER...WE HIGHLIGHTED A DIFFICULTY CONCERNING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SUN DAY 3 IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE GFS 2M TEMPS LOOKED WAY TOO WARM FOR DAY 3 MAX COMPARED TO TEMPS DERIVED FROM THE ECMWF. PCPN OVER VA SUN DAY 3 WILL LIKELY BE FALLING INTO A LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE SURFACE WINDS. SUN AFTN LOOKS EVEN COLDER FROM 12Z/02 GUIDANCE NOW THAT THERE IS BETTER 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE NRN PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE SNOW....WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE QPFS OF THE 12Z/02 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...AND CANADIAN ARE SIGNFICANTLY HIGHER WITH THE QPF SUN BELOW THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST BULLISH OF THE NEW SOLUTIONS AND BEGINS TO PHASE THE EJECTING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS STATES WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY SAT EVE TOPPING THE REX BLOCK OVER FAR SWRN CANADA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 check your coordinates... this is Earth As much as i HATE to agree with JI, i would wait till 0Z to go into any kind of panic. I bet it is better at 0z and gives us some frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 idk if it would end up being cold enough, but the 18Z RGEM has a nice slug of moisture to our west looking to hit us we'll need some help with the building High pressure to the north http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_048.png http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif EDIT: here's the animated precip map http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_....png 18Z RGEM three hour dominant precip. type hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I was noting that the main difference between the GGEM and the GFS was the way it handles the GGEM’s secondary low and sequential energy transfer, and the GFS OTS . The GGEM has some secondary Phasing with gulf moisture with when it reaches the eastern seaboard, and interacts with the plume of moisture streaming NNW out of the gulf. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html Now while both models show a cut off from gulf moisture the GFS doesn’t show and future interaction, while the GGEM brings some of that moisture back WHY?. Now this is where I say I believe that while the moisture will get cut off, it’s the secondary moisture plume http://www.ssd.noaa....c/flash-wv.html This is what’s giving the system enough moisture to spread that precipitation shield just enough north, so that we’ll get into that precipitation. One of the issues here we need to look out for is the speed at which the low goes as it goes by the gulf. Cold air is a different issue entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18Z RGEM three hour dominant precip. type hour 54. I thought that model only went out to 48. Regardless, I like how far north it has the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18Z RGEM three hour dominant precip. type hour 54. I am going to be in Massanutten ,VA for the next 5 days i would take that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18Z RGEM three hour dominant precip. type hour 54. Warm/wet:dry/cold. Not exactly rocket science this winter (or most of last) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As much as i HATE to agree with JI, i would wait till 0Z to go into any kind of panic. I bet it is better at 0z and gives us some frozen precip. who the he!! is panicking? I just made a smart a$$ remark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Of course the Euro weeklies came in very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 who the he!! is panicking? I just made a smart a$$ remark I did not mean you were panicking i just meant in general, the only way you panic is if you have to lower your billable hour rate by 100 bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I did not mean you were panicking i just meant in general, the only way you panic is if you have to lower your billable hour rate by 100 bucks. oh, OK, now I understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Of course the Euro weeklies came in very warm. "epic torch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I still say the GFS is looking ok patternwise for the entire period, even if it doesn't actually deliver anything this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 "epic torch" Weeks 3 and 4 have me breaking out my sexy new speedo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weeks 3 and 4 have me breaking out my sexy new speedo. For the love of god, please bring the cold air back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weeks 3 and 4 have me breaking out my sexy new speedo. Good reason to root for cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Good reason to root for cold Lauren Conrad foams at the mouth when she sees me in my speedo, don't be jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weeks 3 and 4 have me breaking out my sexy new speedo. Candy apple red or tan-through beige? Your posting style implies you're a candy apple red banana hammock wearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Candy apple red or tan-through beige? Your posting style implies you're a candy apple red banana hammock wearer. No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I am not surprised the 18Z suite didn't answer any questions. The 18Z GFS is just as likely to show a HECS as a weak wave exiting off the Florida coast. I'm sure that dude that always defends the models will jump on me with some stat that proves the 18Z GFS rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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