WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 well, then we disagree anyone can go to the Wunderground site and look at the accumulating snow on the 12Z Euro if my statement that there is no accum snow east of the mts is that flawed, sue me It's cool, Mitch. I wasn't trying to point out any error. I was just saying that it did get some snow into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Colorado's weather is so much more fun than ours. and you've got the plains out the back door! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well the 0.25 QPF line is down more by EZF... but the color fill is close to DCA At 9z the 0.1 line was near Wilmington NC. Now its near CHO. That's a big jump. You can also tell be the fact that there is only one area of precip now (basically) that its handling it differently than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 At 9z the 0.1 line was near Wilmington NC. Now its near CHO. That's a big jump. You can also tell be the fact that there is only one area of precip now (basically) that its handling it differently than before. It could continue on 0z, I certainly wouldn't count it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z NAM keeps the precip south of Fredericksburg or so, and even there it is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z NAM through 54 has minor QPF in VA.. better back towards W VA 57 better QPF down EZF... not much north... looks like this is all rain anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z NAM through 54 has minor QPF in VA.. better back towards W VA 57 better QPF down EZF... not much north The confluence blocks some of it, but i dont know, hoping 0z looks better, moves heavier precip more north, but the shield itself doesn't come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Basically from a snow perspective, this run of the NAM blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Basically from a snow perspective, this run of the NAM blows correct, i just want it to be time for 0z now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Basically from a snow perspective, this run of the NAM blows i would never have guessed by mn transplant's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 i would never have guessed by mn transplant's post I just wanted to be the final authority on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Basically from a snow perspective, this run of the NAM blows but it is the NAM...I'm pretty sure we are getting precip in here late Saturday into Sunday morning....I'm going to defer to the superior model that has precip well into central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z NAM keeps the precip south of Fredericksburg or so, and even there it is rain. we may end up with light rain/non accumulating snow but the NAM is wrong....I give it zero credence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 we may end up with light rain/non accumulating snow but the NAM is wrong....I give it zero credence.... yeah i think the question at this point is what if anything sticks. i'd lean toward something but not confidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 yeah i think the question at this point is what if anything sticks. i'd lean toward something but not confidently. I think a good solution is an outlier too....the most likely solution is not a very good one....which is rain changing to steady light snow falling for a few hours overnight at 34 degrees and giving us a cartop 0.25" which will be melted by the time we wake up and it is 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 berk seems to like the canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 berk seems to like the canadian... when doesn't he... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 berk seems to like the canadian... shocked, just shocked or was that just a cheap shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Afternoon disco from LWX is very hedgy .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AND TRACK EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH. EITHER TRACK WILL IMPACT WEATHER IN THE CWFA TO VARYING DEGREES. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GREATER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH EITHER A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 shocked, just shocked or was that just a cheap shot? well he says it's beating the gfs and looks like what he expected to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 wth is a SCLB? Snow Lover's Crystal Ball from CWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z NAM through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Can't believe I wasted 1 week following a storm that may drop an 1/8 inch of precipitation Sunday. This winter is so frustrating, but can't seem to stop myself from checking for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Can't believe I wasted 1 week following a storm that may drop an 1/8 inch of precipitation Sunday. This winter is so frustrating, but can't seem to stop myself from checking for changes. It's better than nothing falling. And it might get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's better than nothing falling. And it might get better. Yeah... skeptical on that one... I can't really picture a Sunday PM post along the lines of "the CMC caught the event days ahead of the other models and held serve while the GFS folded to it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 At this point in time, some thought would have to be given to trends and not just what is being shown by any one model. Trend 1 - the SREFS took a huge jump. That would be hard to argue. Trend 2 - the vast majority of the GFS ens. members jumped to a wetter solution with several showing snow. Trend 3 - the Euro jumped to a wetter solution even if its temps are iffy. I think we have at least a reason to follow this a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yeah... skeptical on that one... I can't really picture a Sunday PM post along the lines of "the CMC caught the event days ahead of the other models and held serve while the GFS folded to it." im fairly confident people will give the cmc props if it snows even if it doesnt deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 idk if it would end up being cold enough, but the 18Z RGEM has a nice slug of moisture to our west looking to hit us we'll need some help with the building High pressure to the north http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_048.png http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif EDIT: here's the animated precip map http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=18_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_....png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 im fairly confident people will give the cmc props if it snows even if it doesnt deserve it If it happens, I'm giving HPC the props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 At the core, it seems like our feast or famine winters are mostly to blame. Pretty frustrating. It's been a while since we've had a "climo" winter around here. We used to have plenty. Half dozen normal events and a mix of cold/warm/normal periods throughout the season. We've had alot more "big" storms the last 10-12 years or so but much less "normal" stuff. I'm sure some of the snow stats guys on here can either confirm or debunk that statement but I'm pretty sure I'm right. I'd much prefer a "climo" type of winter for once. I'd gladly give up the big storm in exchange for some normalcy and sanity. I'm probably speaking for most of the forum here. For DCA/DC proper and eastward, you're right. For Rockville, MD, and other places in MoCo, there've been a lot more "near average" snowfall winters than you're probably remembering in the past 20 years. See thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31503-feast-or-famine-wasnt-really-the-pattern-for-maryland-winters-west-of-the-fall-line/ The winters that were pretty different out here than DCA when compared to % seasonal averages were: 92/93, 98/99, 99/00, 03/04, 04/05, 05/06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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