Feb Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Absolute pants tent of a Euro EC run. Good lord. The euro ensembles first start out with a massive ridge from the Baja to the North Pole practically.They also have the trough axis overhead, which means more favorable for clippers or redevelopers. However, as the run goes out in time...the trough retros a bit and the axis is west of us. At the same time, heights lower a bit across CA, but big ridge spike remains over NW Canada and into AK. It's actually a bit stronger on this run. The ridge is good because it supplies cold, and lower heights across CA can be good because it may send disturbances across the south...then you have the nrn stream to play with too. As usual, have to throw out the obligatory "It's the 11-15 day ensembles", but pretty good signals for some potential. The euro ens mean looks chilly chilly beyond 168hr but pretty dry at least thru day 10. It's pattern looks less nice than last night's. Still day 10 ens means or any other forecast is not going to be very skillful so we can at least put a little hope in the PNA spike. I don't know Wes. With what Scott describes above, i'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't know Wes. With what Scott describes above, i'll take it and run. I only see stuff through day 10 so I can't comment beyond that time. Certainly what scott describes would be a good thing but ti is beyond day 10 which is a pretty big caveat emptor. One good thing is the movement of the mjo which suggests that the pna spike will probably be real. Feb 5-11 or 12 still looks like it is the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Well don't forget, I was posting in our general region, so what might look good for us, may not necessarily be great for you guys. The EC ensembles seemed to have a lot of spread and question marks near that potential storm late next week. They had a trough extending into SNE with no real, good, concise low pressure...meaning that there might be some spread and uncertainty about what if any low forms. I'm not too surprised by that, we told some folks in our thread not to get excited about it. Post d10: Wes, I thought at first the pattern was very nrn stream dominant. You had a ridge that basically extends from the desert sw into the NW Territories at the beginning of the period. The trough axis is pretty far east, actually over New England, hence why it may be more conducive to clippers or redevelopers. The NAO is still positive imo, and the Caspian ridge tries to nose in from the northeast, into Greenland. By hr 300 the trough axis retrogrades west and is over the latitude of the eastern Great Lakes region..maybe near 80W, we'll say. We see some ridging into northeast Greenland..possible part of the Caspian ridge, but I wouldn't really classify this as a -NAO. Out west, the ridge still holds strong, but now we see heights lower just a bit across California. Seems like it tries to get split flow going near the Baja of California. Still very nrn stream dominant with the flow coming out of the Canadian Plains, but at least the trough axis retrogrades just a bit and with heights trying to lower,....you can always get disturbances trying to move across the south. By hr 360, the trough axis backs up a bit more, and the ridging into northeast Greenland is a bit more pronounced, but again..I struggle to call it a classic -NAO. The ridging out west flattens out, but it does look like we have split flow over the southwest with subtle troughing. The ridging still holds pretty strong across NW Canada, despite how far out it is on the ensembles means. SO potentially, you could have enough meridional flow providing cold and possible nrn stream s/w's and then hope something comes along from whatever happens across the southwest. Of course, this is what the 11-15 day shows, so take it FWIW. I know you guys need a more classic -NAO and the nrn stream can screw you guys, but perhaps if the flow is as meridional as models show..you can get something to cook up. I still feel like I have the "believe it when I see it" but it's nice to see guidance and tropical forcing trying to hint at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I enjoy reading fiction just as much as non-fiction. You reading BBs thread too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 SNOstorm returns at least we're not SNE.. they're already talking up some day 7 storm like it's going to happen for sure we are worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The period from around Feb 4 or 5 until the end of the GFS run looks interesting. This is evolving into a pretty good pattern. Wish I had waited another day before putting out the CWG forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wes, its a good sign when you are being interested in an event time frame. Yep, when a weenie says day 10 looks interesting, meh, but when Wes starts to say those sorts of things, it's time to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 we are worse The year of the weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The period from around Feb 4 or 5 until the end of the GFS run looks interesting. This is evolving into a pretty good pattern. Wish I had waited another day before putting out the CWG forecast. Lol..what if u wrote piece today and tommirow Gfs flipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 please, no one start a 2/6/10 anniversary thread, that's all I ask.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 On the analog charts from the CPC, are there any storms of interest showing up for the Mid Atlantic yet? I saw early Feb 1996 showing up and Feb 2006... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 On the analog charts from the CPC, are there any storms of interest showing up for the Mid Atlantic yet? I saw early Feb 1996 showing up and Feb 2006... that's evil HM, just evil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Better do it.. Adam says winter is over after mid month. We know how right he was with the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Better do it.. Adam says winter is over after mid month. We know how right he was with the torch I will bet that todays departures will push DCA into double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I will bet that todays departures will push DCA into double digits if it's not 85 it's not a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 On the analog charts from the CPC, are there any storms of interest showing up for the Mid Atlantic yet? I saw early Feb 1996 showing up and Feb 2006... these cpc analog charts that you speak of ....are they available to the public ... if so does anyone have the site. Is it like the C I P S where it just gives you analog days or more climate geared giving you analog months or something of the like ? What parameters does it use for analogs? Enso, Tele connections, m j o, gw o, etc. Thanks for any info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Awesome! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 please, no one start a 2/6/10 anniversary thread, that's all I ask.... Just uttering the terms snowpocalypse or snowmageddon should be grounds for immediate banning. Dumbest, lamest names ever given to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 this isn't bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 00z GFS high pressure stomps the shortwave in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Just uttering the terms snowpocalypse or snowmageddon should be grounds for immediate banning. Dumbest, lamest names ever given to anything. Naming winter storms is ridiculous any way it's cut. Unfortunately social media and needing to include the public will ensure it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Feb '06 looks to be the best analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 On today's ten CPC Day 8-14 analogs- four of the analogs had a 3-9" snowstorm at DCA within a week (2.6", 4.5", 6.8", and 8.8"). One more had a 10.3" snowstorm within two weeks. The other five were pretty much snowless surrounding the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 0z Euro - the day 8/9 threat may have some potential......the details aren't important now....I think cold air will be an issue....and a primary in the Ohio Valley.....I would say it is something to pay attention to though my WAG is it will be too warm....lots of time though It looks good.. Its nice to see that very strong high pressure (1040mb) showing up filtering the trough with fresh cold air. If that trough gets its act together and it goes negative a bit sooner, hopefully we can all cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If day 10 were to verify from the Canadian it would be just a touch . http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....4day/analog.php There is a great site that actually shows each matching event's 500's, total snowfall, rainfall, etc... It also does analogs for 3 or 4 different time periods (3, 5, 7, 10 days out????) out. My computer is in the shop right now so don't have access to it. You or anyone else wouldn't by chance be aware of what site I am talking about and the link to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 06Z GFS has an interesting solution for the potential event for late next week. Has a lead low that would bring snow to the area and then cuts off the 500's in the deep south and then brings it up the coast shortly thereafter. Temps look like they would be an issue though except for possibly under the 500 low. Long range still looks good and has a very cold look towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Pick your poison when it comes to the 06Z GFS ensemble members. They are all over the place in regards to a potential storm late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Pick your poison when it comes to the 06Z GFS ensemble members. They are all over the place in regards to a potential storm late next week. We might be entering into our best chance for snow starting late next week per 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Better do it.. Adam says winter is over after mid month. We know how right he was with the torch It's almost always over here after mid-Feb. Not going out on too small a limb with that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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