H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Good thing we have been above avg temps the last two weeks. Ground will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Gfs says 0" Euro says 1" CMC says 7" No gaps says 1-3" Take your pick. I'll go with car topper im going with 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Good thing we have been above avg temps the last two weeks. Ground will be warm. How is that a good thing?! Snow will never stick to the ground after it was 70 yesterday!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How is that a good thing?! Snow will never stick to the ground after it was 70 yesterday!!!!!!! We need to keep people off the roads this weekend to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We need to keep people off the roads this weekend to help. Make sure that everyone stays inside... because "It's too bad most of the precip is falling on a weekend. More people outdoors means an increase in 2m temps." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Make sure that everyone stays inside... because "It's too bad most of the precip is falling on a weekend. More people outdoors means an increase in 2m temps." we need every degree of cold air we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I count 9 of 11 GEFS members show snow for the MA. Some show big snows. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf078.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I count 9 of 11 GEFS members show snow for the MA. Some show big snows. http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf078.html FWIW: 5 of the 11 show 3"+ within 50 miles of DCA... 3 of the 11 show NADA for DC... the other 2 are in between (as in around an inch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm hugging P002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I come back to this forum now after lunch to find 100 people in here all excited over the Canadian. This is one of those "You know its a bad winter when..." moments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I come back to this forum now after lunch to find 100 people in here all excited over the Canadian, CRAS, JMA, NOGRAPS. This is one of those "You know its a bad winter when..." moments... FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I come back to this forum now after lunch to find 100 people in here all excited over the Canadian. This is one of those "You know its a bad winter when..." moments... Yea, not just one model. It's all about the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 FWIW: 5 of the 11 show 3"+ within 50 miles of DCA... 3 of the 11 show NADA for DC... the other 2 are in between (as in around an inch) Sorry about that, I should have qualified "big", this winter anything over 3" is HUGE :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 In regards to the GFS ensemble snow output, is it a 10:1 standard ratio? Or is it something that RaleighWx came up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Sorry about that, I should have qualified "big", this winter anything over 3" is HUGE :-). Its okies I just thought I would clarify it a bit more. Its all we have for the next hour till the 18z NAM says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yea, not just one model. It's all about the trend. Even the Euro has 0.10+ of precip wit 850's below 0, surface is warm, but if this thing came in over night that would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 FWIW: 5 of the 11 show 3"+ within 50 miles of DCA... 3 of the 11 show NADA for DC... the other 2 are in between (as in around an inch) the ensembles are more bullish than the op....we are going to need some decent rates to get accumulating snow....GFS op is really warm but it is an outlier I think...NAM would be accumulating snow sometime after midnight assuming we actually get precip in here....I'm not that worried to be honest about the surface...I'm more worried about precip....33-34 and snow isn;t a stretch in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its okies I just thought I would clarify it a bit more. Its all we have for the next hour till the 18z NAM says no I want a trend on 18z but waiting for 0z with new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even the Euro has 0.10+ of precip wit 850's below 0, surface is warm, but if this thing came in over night that would help. timing of precip will be a big deal....cause we are probably going to be mid to upper 40s on Saturday afternoon....need to keep watching the trend in surface temps....hopefully that trends colder even on Saturday day.....would love to see low 40s on Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 15z SREFs look like .1-.25 QPF... surface temps in the 30s I believe... weak low 18z NAM on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 unless someone removed Skyline Drive and every other mt east of Harrisonburg, then Harrisonburg is in the mts No. Harrisonburg is in the Shenandoah Valley. If everything constitutes the mountains, then the mountains must end for you at the fall line. There is snow east of the mountains. Just not the ones outside your backdoor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 In regards to the GFS ensemble snow output, is it a 10:1 standard ratio? Or is it something that RaleighWx came up with? I think it is just a standard ratio if i remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 15z SREFs look like .1-.25 QPF... surface temps in the 30s I believe... weak low That's one of the biggest jumps I think I've ever seen them make in one 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 plus some -SN as well....the models are so bad this winter....72-96 hours is the time to pay attention I think.....beyond that is just guesswork I agree about the modeling. My stern warning from the AAM thread was that during this regime shift (I think I've managed to make another phrase trite pretty quickly---I gagged as I typed it) that the modeling would suffer more than usual (just like at this time last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That's one of the biggest jumps I think I've ever seen them make in one 6 hour period. Well the 0.25 QPF line is down more by EZF... but the color fill is close to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 From HPC Final EFD this afternoon- EARLIER...WE HIGHLIGHTED A DIFFICULTY CONCERNING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SUN DAY 3 IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE GFS 2M TEMPS LOOKED WAY TOO WARM FOR DAY 3 MAX COMPARED TO TEMPS DERIVED FROM THE ECMWF. PCPN OVER VA SUN DAY 3 WILL LIKELY BE FALLING INTO A LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE SURFACE WINDS. SUN AFTN LOOKS EVEN COLDER FROM 12Z/02 GUIDANCE NOW THAT THERE IS BETTER 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE NRN PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE SNOW....WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE QPFS OF THE 12Z/02 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...AND CANADIAN ARE SIGNFICANTLY HIGHER WITH THE QPF SUN BELOW THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST BULLISH OF THE NEW SOLUTIONS AND BEGINS TO PHASE THE EJECTING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS STATES WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY SAT EVE TOPPING THE REX BLOCK OVER FAR SWRN CANADA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That's one of the biggest jumps I think I've ever seen them make in one 6 hour period. sref not unlke the NAM in terms of temps....rain..changing to snow after midnight....probably a dusting to 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 sref not unlke the NAM in terms of temps....rain..changing to snow after midnight....probably a dusting to 1/2" let the trend continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Colorado's weather is so much more fun than ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No. Harrisonburg is in the Shenandoah Valley. If everything constitutes the mountains, then the mountains must end for you at the fall line. There is snow east of the mountains. Just not the ones outside your backdoor. well, then we disagree anyone can go to the Wunderground site and look at the accumulating snow on the 12Z Euro if my statement that there is no accum snow east of the mts is that flawed, sue me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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