Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You tell me that the CRAS and SHIPS have it then I'm all in the cras is always north and wound up it's probably showing severe weather here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 go away Heavy heavy heavy 3sm sn coming. expect heavy accums up to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 the cras is always north and wound up it's probably showing severe weather here hmm maybe they fixed it http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_066m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 NO. no... no. NO, Ian... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 per Wunderground maps, no snow east of the mts.....at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 not sure why people are so stunned....Euro is just a more robust version of what it showed last night.....I like the idea of mostly snow as depicted....We have dozens of February snows where is was mid 40s in the afternoon...cooled to 32-34 overnight and then mid 40s the next day....high pressure last night was stronger and in a better place but that cut down on precip too...so it is a balancing act Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 per Wunderground maps, no snow east of the mts.....at all like that is ever right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 3/4 of the sh*ttiest models show something that will only end up being <1" and you'd think the _______(insert fave football team here) just won the SB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 per Wunderground maps, no snow east of the mts.....at all why do people look at snow maps?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 the euro dumps some big cold in next weekend now .. -20 850s make it to DC on Saturday the 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 like that is ever right just one more model depiction, that's all this year, 60-72 hrs is a lifetime this has just as much chance of 6" as no" at least we have something to follow.....and, it's the weekend......YAY!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 the euro dumps some big cold in next weekend now .. -20 850s make it to DC on Saturday the 11th plus some -SN as well....the models are so bad this winter....72-96 hours is the time to pay attention I think.....beyond that is just guesswork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 why do people look at snow maps?.... because they are there, for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 plus some -SN as well....the models are so bad this winter....72-96 hours is the time to pay attention I think.....beyond that is just guesswork yup.. looks transient but a good bit colder than last run. not that it means anything at all i guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 just one more model depiction, that's all this year, 60-72 hrs is a lifetime this has just as much chance of 6" as no" at least we have something to follow.....and, it's the weekend......YAY!!!!!!! well...dont agree there but I like the trend of punching moisture well ahead of a weak low in the TN valley...the setup could work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I declare a Stage 3 watch for this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 per Wunderground maps, no snow east of the mts.....at all Are you calling the mountains the Blue Ridge? If so, yes. If no, then no. It has snow in the Harrisonburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 well...dont agree there but I like the trend of punching moisture well ahead of a weak low in the TN valley...the setup could work.... OK, then change the 6" to 3" or 4" my point is there's plenty of time for this to improve or fail NINA says there will be a north trend within 72 hrs, which may not be bad because the more precip would cool the atmosphere better (as long as it's not too far north with the entire system, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Are you calling the mountains the Blue Ridge? If so, yes. If no, then no. It has snow in the Harrisonburg area. unless someone removed Skyline Drive and every other mt east of Harrisonburg, then Harrisonburg is in the mts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 OK, then change the 6" to 3" or 4" my point is there's plenty of time for this to improve or fail NINA says there will be a north trend within 73 hrs, which may not be bad because the more precip would cool the atmosphere better (as long as it's not too far north with the entire system, of course) and all the sudden our great PAC and ok ATlantic has reversed....models are not of much use assuming we are going to time different discrete threats.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 OK, then change the 6" to 3" or 4" my point is there's plenty of time for this to improve or fail NINA says there will be a north trend within 73 hrs, which may not be bad because the more precip would cool the atmosphere better (as long as it's not too far north with the entire system, of course) you've got a long way to go to even 3-4". this is a small event at best imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 well...dont agree there but I like the trend of punching moisture well ahead of a weak low in the TN valley...the setup could work.... 09-10 was fun because the storm would show up a week in advance on the models and never leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 you've got a long way to go to even 3-4". this is a small event at best imo. Gfs says 0" Euro says 1" CMC says 7" No gaps says 1-3" Take your pick. I'll go with car topper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 well...dont agree there but I like the trend of punching moisture well ahead of a weak low in the TN valley...the setup could work.... Could this be one of those situations where the precip gets here ahead of the weak low and cools the atmosphere.. so whatever precip comes later is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Gfs says 0" Euro says 1" CMC says 7" No gaps says 1-3" Take your pick. I'll go with car topper Canadian says 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Gfs says 0" Euro says 1" CMC says 7" No gaps says 1-3" Take your pick. I'll go with car topper i dunno.. the idea posted before the euro of T-.1" still seems logical imby.. could go up a bit sure. i dont see where this system will get a lot of moisture from tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Gfs says 0" Euro says 1" CMC says 7" No gaps says 1-3" Take your pick. I'll go with car topper You may be right, we'll see. Nogaps a bit more than 1-3" for bal not that it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We are clearly seeing the models correct. More changes to come I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 you've got a long way to go to even 3-4". this is a small event at best imo. yes...we would need a different solution or a serious QPF punch in the nighttime hours....maybe we will see that....euro isnt that far off from punching a fat blob of moistre over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 i dunno.. the idea posted before the euro of T-.1" still seems logical imby.. could go up a bit sure. i dont see where this system will get a lot of moisture from tho. I agree, phasing helps strengthen the low but other than that it's something that is in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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