stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Gfs doesn't phase the northern vort. Instead it acts like confluence crushing this storm. The ggem, jma, ukie and now euro, all phase the northern vort which as a result expands the precip north. Yeah, was just going through the various runs and noticed that. Might be time to employ the weenie rationale of GFS having a S/E bias or some nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 lolz if anything it's possible it runs a little warm at the surface but im sure you're riding the cmc or whichever model has the best outcome... What? That happens? Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This and the fact that I hardly ever take euro qpf too seriously But you'd take the CMC qpf seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 But you'd take the CMC qpf seriously? Hilarious, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 lolz if anything it's possible it runs a little warm at the surface but im sure you're riding the cmc or whichever model has the best outcome... I'm the last person who weenie rides models. I just said last page the cmc qpf was preposterous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Canadian picked up the 20-21st snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 But you'd take the CMC qpf seriously? It has more mm than the euro mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Can I just point out, a couple of hours early, that now that folks are beginning to get buzzed, is when the next model run will suddenly show 60 degree rain for Sunday PM....? Just prep, as it seems to happen every time. We need a hotdog-jumping-off-a-roof emoticon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 its snow...its saturday night and its during winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yeah, was just going through the various runs and noticed that. Might be time to employ the weenie rationale of GFS having a S/E bias or some nonsense. But in this case the northern piece is too far NORTH on the GFS. It doesnt dive in south enough to phase with the cutoff. 18z NAM and GFS will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 its snow...its saturday night and its during winter Good point ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 But you'd take the CMC qpf seriously? im hugging whatever model gives me the most snow for the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 But in this case the northern piece is too far NORTH on the GFS. It doesnt dive in south enough to phase with the cutoff. 18z NAM and GFS will be telling. Indeed. Until the 0z runs..and they will be telling-er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 CMC and JMA = deep end. Let's see something solid from a respectable source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 im hugging whatever model gives me the most snow for the rest of the winter Remember mountain highs and valley lows? This year, we have been under the dirt of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 CMC and JMA = deep end. Let's see something solid from a respectable source. is your avatar a picture of a man doing a bear from behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 is your avatar a picture of a man doing a bear from behind? Kinda. Screen shot from Super Troopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well at 60 hours, the sfc temp is like 40F for DC and upper 30s for the suburbs (and low 40s SE of DC)...so that is pretty warm to start, but then it cools. That's why I said it would probably be rain changing to snow if Euro was taken at face value. My thoughts behind my last post were 1) at 60 hours the Euro is probably too warm at the surface, especially given 2) DC northward will be on the northern side of the frontal boundary, giving them a light wind of out the north. By giving the actual temp range of mid 30s to 40, that lets people know that, because it's the Euro 60 hours out with a light north wind, they could probably chop off several degrees from the forecast and get it that much closer to snow at the onset. That's just my analysis given the 12z Euro solution, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, it is true that several of the GFS ens members liked us. Now the Euro paints snow down around the Harrisonburg area. We never did punt. We took a couple of timeouts, then had the refs review the last spot of the ball, so we still have options here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 My thoughts behind my last post were 1) at 60 hours the Euro is probably too warm at the surface, especially given 2) DC northward will be on the northern side of the frontal boundary, giving them a light wind of out the north. By giving the actual temp range of mid 30s to 40, that lets people know that, because it's the Euro 60 hours out with a light north wind, they could probably chop off several degrees from the forecast and get it that much closer to snow at the onset. That's just my analysis given the 12z Euro solution, anyway. agree.. i think the euro solution would be all snow pretty much if it comes to pass. but there's always grave danger being on the edge if you don't want to get screwed so might need some mass weenie energy to keep it coming north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, it is true that several of the GFS ens members liked us. Now the Euro paints snow down around the Harrisonburg area. We never did punt. We took a couple of timeouts, then had the refs review the last spot of the ball, so we still have options here. I called a late timeout just before I punted the ball away... mayb a super long FG try now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z nogaps has also joined the northern branch phasing. Seems like all the 4dvar models are picking up on it today at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 agree.. i think the euro solution would be all snow pretty much if it comes to pass. but there's always grave danger being on the edge if you don't want to get screwed so might need some mass weenie energy to keep it coming north a bit. I'm sure steadier precip would help...if the precip stays light, it would obviously be a little tougher to cool the BL. With temps aloft decently cold, I'd def root for a tick north/stronger to get heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z nogaps has also joined the northern branch phasing. Seems like all the 4dvar models are picking up on it today at 12z. You tell me that the CRAS and SHIPS have it then I'm all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The no gaps has officially been posted in this thread. What a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z Nogaps go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 is your avatar a picture of a man doing a bear from behind? Yes, super troopers. I like to make my avatar as interesting and unique as possible. Yes, as NE Balti said, its from the movie Super Troopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Remember mountain highs and valley lows? This year, we have been under the dirt of the valley. deepest valley ever....we dont even know what the mountain looks like:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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