Joe Vanni Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Every single critical thickness line goes right over the tip of the Washington monument I'd take my chances with it though, especially this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'd take my chances with it though, especially this winter! You're damn right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I've tried googling my question and can't seem to find the answer. Is the CMC 6hr precip measured in mm, hundredths of mm's, or in hundredths of inches? Thanks in advance for the help. Yeah, I know, I know, it's the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I've tried googling my question and can't seem to find the answer. Is the CMC 6hr precip measured in mm, hundredths of mm's, or in hundredths of inches? Thanks in advance for the help. Yeah, I know, I know, it's the CMC. mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Bunch of stage 2'ers up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I've tried googling my question and can't seem to find the answer. Is the CMC 6hr precip measured in mm, hundredths of mm's, or in hundredths of inches? Thanks in advance for the help. Yeah, I know, I know, it's the CMC. It depends what site you view it on...if you are viewing it on ewall here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Then its in hundreths of an inch. If you are viewing it on the canadian site http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Then the precip is in mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Speaking of which, after tallying the cmc qpf (I know, silly), I came up with about 0.75 or so for DC. That's preposterous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Bunch of stage 2'ers up in here I'm speechless at what is taking place right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The 12z UKMET has come in with decent precip too for DC. i'd probably wager we get something tho probably not a lot and a slip to the south is still fairly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Bunch of stage 2'ers up in here It's not just a river in Egypt...and I am helping myself to a sizeable chunk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 i'd probably wager we get something tho probably not a lot and a slip to the south is still fairly likely. When this close in, you generally want a lot of operational support...GFS ensembles were interesting, but the OP run of it and the NAM are still nothing...UKMET is a bit interesting though as its definitely a better model than the CMC. You'd obviously want to see the Euro jump on board within 3 days if you were to forecast any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It depends what site you view it on...if you are viewing it on ewall here: http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Then its in hundreths of an inch. If you are viewing it on the canadian site http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html Then the precip is in mm. much obliged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 When this close in, you generally want a lot of operational support...GFS ensembles were interesting, but the OP run of it and the NAM are still nothing...UKMET is a bit interesting though as its definitely a better model than the CMC. You'd obviously want to see the Euro jump on board within 3 days if you were to forecast any snow. euro had some precip last night.. im not talking a lot on my end. like a trace to .1" liquid type stuff for now. overall very low confidence.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 the canadian is awful. but if there's a situation where we overperform around here based on expectations this is how it can come together. last sref run was not so hot but prior one was not bad. it'd be fairly difficult to have a dry forecast with much confidence. The Canadian actually did fairly well with our one "event " of this winter 2 weeks ago. We will see how you feel when the Euro jumps on board. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro is definitely going to come in wetter than 00z for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm speechless at what is taking place right now. What stage is that? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Canadian actually did fairly well with our one "event " of this winter 2 weeks ago. We will see how you feel when the Euro jumps on board. MDstorm eh maybe if you are cotton picking. it was certainly more bullish than actuality. and one storm is not a good way to measure accuracy over time. im not sure i need to feel any way unles you want me to call for 3-6" or something. im already giving it more chance than plenty of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro is definitely going to come in wetter than 00z for DC. When I saw the GFS, I thought it may have been too supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 euro about .1" (edit: a little higher actually) along the potomac and sw.. probably all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Need Wes in here ASAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Man if this turns out to be true we should buy everyone at HPC a drink... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 When I saw the GFS, I thought it may have been too supressed. Its pretty warm though at the sfc...so it would probably be cold rain changing to snow before ending. Its not a lot of precip, but maybe like 0.20" where the 00z run had just a few hundreths...but in a terrible winter, anything is worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its pretty warm though at the sfc...so it would probably be cold rain changing to snow before ending. Its not a lot of precip, but maybe like 0.20" where the 00z run had just a few hundreths...but in a terrible winter, anything is worth watching. Hey, .20 is a blizzard around here. Now we gotta make it all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 now let the north trend begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro warm at sfc, but overall 12z trends not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its pretty warm though at the sfc...so it would probably be cold rain changing to snow before ending. Its not a lot of precip, but maybe like 0.20" where the 00z run had just a few hundreths...but in a terrible winter, anything is worth watching. You should probably qualify "too warm" ...12z Euro is mid/upper 30s at the surface with 850s in the -2 to -4 range for DC northward. Not too shabby for people looking for snow 60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You should probably qualify "too warm" ...12z Euro is mid/upper 30s at the surface with 850s in the -2 to -4 range for DC northward. Not too shabby for people looking for snow 60 hours out. Well at 60 hours, the sfc temp is like 40F for DC and upper 30s for the suburbs (and low 40s SE of DC)...so that is pretty warm to start, but then it cools. That's why I said it would probably be rain changing to snow if Euro was taken at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You should probably qualify "too warm" ...12z Euro is mid/upper 30s at the surface with 850s in the -2 to -4 range for DC northward. Not too shabby for people looking for snow 60 hours out. This and the fact that I hardly ever take euro qpf too seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 When I saw the GFS, I thought it may have been too supressed. Gfs doesn't phase the northern vort. Instead it acts like confluence crushing this storm. The ggem, jma, ukie and now euro, all phase the northern vort which as a result expands the precip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This and the fact that I hardly ever take euro qpf too seriously lolz if anything it's possible it runs a little warm at the surface but im sure you're riding the cmc or whichever model has the best outcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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