WhiteoutMD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 OK looks like it will be dry for the next 5 days I will get my car washed today. This winter blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As for the numbers, it's 19.2% vs. 68.6%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 what a remarkable difference, Fozz... Wow. Do you have last year's map also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 lol. It's still an anomaly. You figure you have massive winters like 09-10 and then average winters and then slightly below avg winters and then a few near shutouts like this one...it's an anomaly... Come on man...I know we are all getting antsy with this winter but you've been pretty "agitated" (wrong word). I seem to remember you as a much calmer and down to Earth poster in the past...just relax and let nature happen. I'm losing it man!!! Nah, sorry if it came across that way. An average by definition would say that we average so and so. But in reality, if a sucky winter happens almost without exception, then the "real" average would be a sucky winter. I've always thought that the median is a much better statistic to use. I wonder what our median is for the past 10 winters. I know my stats over here would be different from you guys, but your stats would still give a decent picture. I'm sure that someone has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 what a remarkable difference, Fozz... Wow. Do you have last year's map also? Here's last year's map http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201102/nsm_depth_2011020105_National.jpg 52% snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ouch Fozz. Go ahead and post 2-12-10 so we can live vicariously for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I love the look of the GFS map for Monday. That sums this winter up perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ouch Fozz. Go ahead and post 2-12-10 so we can live vicariously for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Exactly and it sucks. Feast or famine is becoming tiresome. Coastal or will (can't remember who) posted some details about why this is happening but I don't remember what was said. Growing up in the 70's & 80's we pretty much expected some decent cold and snow every year and we were right more often that not. Now it's the other way around. I would guess it's part of some big long term cycle or oscillation. If it's a permanent "new normal" then I'm going end up spending less and less time with this hobby and focus on other things. The patterns have changed. It is just my dumb azz obeservation and have nothing to back it up but storm tracks all year long are different. This is something I've noticed ever since the summer of 99 when dry weather would start to set in more often during MJJA. Not ready to point a finger at GW or anything but, yes, things are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm losing it man!!! Nah, sorry if it came across that way. An average by definition would say that we average so and so. But in reality, if a sucky winter happens almost without exception, then the "real" average would be a sucky winter. I've always thought that the median is a much better statistic to use. I wonder what our median is for the past 10 winters. I know my stats over here would be different from you guys, but your stats would still give a decent picture. I'm sure that someone has it. Even doing 20 winters there are only 4 above average. A few are not that far off but still below. (for full disclosure the ten prior to those 20 had six above average) The median for 10 years is 11.3 The median for 20 years is 10.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 In our area at least, the median is a much better measure of what snowfall to expect since the mean is biased high by the blockbuster winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Exactly and it sucks. Feast or famine is becoming tiresome. Coastal or will (can't remember who) posted some details about why this is happening but I don't remember what was said. Growing up in the 70's & 80's we pretty much expected some decent cold and snow every year and we were right more often that not. Now it's the other way around. I would guess it's part of some big long term cycle or oscillation. If it's a permanent "new normal" then I'm going end up spending less and less time with this hobby and focus on other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm losing it man!!! Nah, sorry if it came across that way. An average by definition would say that we average so and so. But in reality, if a sucky winter happens almost without exception, then the "real" average would be a sucky winter. I've always thought that the median is a much better statistic to use. I wonder what our median is for the past 10 winters. I know my stats over here would be different from you guys, but your stats would still give a decent picture. I'm sure that someone has it. Here are some rough estimates of my totals starting with 01-02. 5" 60" 30" (~14" around 12/5-6 and about a foot total from a few late Jan storms) 20" 23" (15" in Feb 2006) 18" (lots of nickle and diming during the cold period) 11" 10" 85" 25" (14" from the psuhoffman MECS) Looks like a median of 21.5". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z GFS still has the zywts storm/s, but both are well OTS. Otherwise, cold/dry, warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 To be fair, the 12Z GFS doesn't give us anything - but nor does it rule anything out, last past runs have done. Still a number of potentials up to the 300hr timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 A winter with 20" of snow isn't bad at all. Last year, I think I totaled up about 22". I was disappointed by a couple of storms last year, but overall it wasn't awful. It's years like this one, and like 08-09 that drive me nuts. Remember that in 08-09, over here, we got flurries from the March storm. At least it was a fairly cold winter. This one is the worst I can remember since 90-91. For some reason, I can't really remember 2001-2002, which has been thrown around this year as a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Every morning, I come here thinking maybe..just maybe our fortunes have changed with fresh model runs. Then I see the thread page count before I open it and already know its bad news because it's on the same ****ing page as last night. Almost time to punt? No, not just this weekend, but the whole damn thing. Getting close. While I have nothing of substance to add and follow the threads here with the hope some miracle will lead to some sense of winter, your comments here represent my feelings over the last several weeks. None the less, I've learned a tremendous amount from everyone here over the past several years and will be eternally grateful for the ongoing education. Between this forum and Eastern Weather before, I've read and enjoyed the banter for 8 or 9 years, to include while living in Germany, Thailand and Afghanistan during the same period. Keep up the great work.... will quietly exit now and continue to marvel at everyone's passion for the weather, which I share... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 While I have nothing of substance to add and follow the threads here with the hope some miracle will lead to some sense of winter, your comments here represent my feelings over the last several weeks. None the less, I've learned a tremendous amount from everyone here over the past several years and will be eternally grateful for the ongoing education. Between this forum and Eastern Weather before, I've read and enjoyed the banter for 8 or 9 years, to include while living in Germany, Thailand and Afghanistan during the same period. Keep up the great work.... will quietly exit now and continue to marvel at everyone's passion for the weather, which I share... well said! I agree! Thanks to all who post here, especially the Mets and for those who take more than 2 seconds to think when they see something on a model. The insight and information help tremendously and I have learned a ton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z cmc has changed its tune big time for Sunday! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well the CMC is down for some wintry fun for what its worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Oh Canada I love you?! Holy cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Really? the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Really? the CMC? If it's all we got, I am hugging it. I am trying to be all laid back about 1.5 inches of slop to date at my house, but inside, I am completely not okay with it. So, all hail our friends to the north for their stupendous model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 ggem is sexy, too bad i can doubt its solution, at least models look cold, so if we get some precip in here, snow could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Several of the GFS ensemble members give some support to the GGEM solution. So its not 100% out in left field. We'll see if the Euro tries to bring some precip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Fwiw the 12z gfs mean likes the cmc idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Several of the GFS ensemble members give some support to the GGEM solution. So its not 100% out in left field. We'll see if the Euro tries to bring some precip in. the canadian is awful. but if there's a situation where we overperform around here based on expectations this is how it can come together. last sref run was not so hot but prior one was not bad. it'd be fairly difficult to have a dry forecast with much confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even though the JMA gets dogged on constantly, it also has trended better than the 00z run last night. http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even though the JMA gets dogged on constantly, it also has trended better than the 00z run last night. http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Every single critical thickness line goes right over the tip of the Washington monument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 the canadian is awful. but if there's a situation where we overperform around here based on expectations this is how it can come together. last sref run was not so hot but prior one was not bad. it'd be fairly difficult to have a dry forecast with much confidence. The 12z UKMET has come in with decent precip too for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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