WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 My hunch is that we see a weak ugly progressive sheared out monstrosity that gives us nothing or some very light rain. Hope I am wrong. Right now, using those two models, if we could get some precip late Sat into Sun it would look to be snow. It's always possible I guess. BTW, I agree with you that 5-6 weeks can be a long period. If we could get into a pattern that's colder and more active, we could have a seemingly good stretch of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You can always tell when it wasn't a good model run by the lack of comments on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro gets some light light moisture here sat afternoon/evening....precip type is a tough call but probably rain.....surface is lows 40s at 18z and upper 30s at 0z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro gets some light light moisture here sat afternoon/evening....precip type is a tough call but probably rain.....surface is lows 40s at 18z and upper 30s at 0z.... overnight would be snow I think and low 30s....not a lot of moisture but better than it had looked..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 overnight would be snow I think and low 30s....not a lot of moisture but better than it had looked..... flurries sound good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 flurries sound good I dont think thats what it is.....it would be -ra or -sn....not a lot of QPF...a few hundreths maybe?....but it gets precip over most of the area overnight....would be a light cartop type of event I think as depicted...maybe borderline measurable....but at least it is something?...who knows if it trends better or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We need euro to show a real storm even if it has no support and no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I dont think thats what it is.....it would be -ra or -sn....not a lot of QPF...a few hundreths maybe?....but it gets precip over most of the area overnight....would be a light cartop type of event I think as depicted...maybe borderline measurable....but at least it is something?...who knows if it trends better or not Could be... but are you going to stay up for another cartop dusting of like 0.03 QPF? I guess it is something... we still have a few days... but i think you would agree that its probabky going to be nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's not as warm Monday as 12z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Could be... but are you going to stay up for another cartop dusting of like 0.03 QPF? I guess it is something... we still have a few days... but i think you would agree that its probabky going to be nothing what do I know?...we continue to watch it and see how it trends...I don't start making overnight plans for a Saturday on a Wednesday night... There is a coastal that grazes us Monday night but it is rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Cmc looked somewhat interesting. I've called a timeout, but still in punt formation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Cmc looked somewhat interesting. I've called a timeout, but still in punt formation there is high pressure in a good spot even if weak so to the extent we are talking about precip overnight saturday, it is worth watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro looks dry Day 6-7...is there anything brewing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro looks dry Day 6-7...is there anything brewing? not really,...there is a weak low that moves to the lakes but that will keep changing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It looks as if the Euro is caving to the GFS' idea of bringing a warm, supressed, sheared POS through. So what does the JMA and the Brazilian show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Canadian looks somewhat interesting but is warm. Kills the primary and brings a low up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 how insulting...the GFS shows the Feb 9-10 storm in what it supposed to be our window for cold and snow as a warm rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Remember that according to one of the better forecasters that posted here our best days are still to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Remember that according to one of the better forecasters that posted here our best days are still to come! Wouldn't be hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 When none of the models show snow there is always the old desperate standby of checking each ensemble member. Well, that isn't even working either as none show anything for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It looks as if the Euro is caving to the GFS' idea of bringing a warm, supressed, sheared POS through. So what does the JMA and the Brazilian show? The Brazilian shows a close shave. Nearly waxes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The groundhog saw his shadow - maybe there is still hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Remember that according to one of the better forecasters that posted here our best days are still to come! Says the groundhog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Brazilian shows a close shave. Nearly waxes us. I guess the in me will ride that one then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That dumb ground hog should have been put out of his misery a long time ago. Don't they drive cars in Punxsutawney? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 When none of the models show snow there is always the old desperate standby of checking each ensemble member. Well, that isn't even working either as none show anything for this weekend. lesson to wxUSAF...dont trust the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, Justin Berk is calling for snow still..So you guys have that going for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Every morning, I come here thinking maybe..just maybe our fortunes have changed with fresh model runs. Then I see the thread page count before I open it and already know its bad news because it's on the same ****ing page as last night. Almost time to punt? No, not just this weekend, but the whole damn thing. Getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Every morning, I come here thinking maybe..just maybe our fortunes have changed with fresh model runs. Then I see the thread page count before I open it and already know its bad news because it's on the same ****ing page as last night. Almost time to punt? No, not just this weekend, but the whole damn thing. Getting close. You'd think sooner or later that something would have to go our way. It seems like it NEVER does. That blows any statistical study out of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You know it is bad when North Africa is getting more snow than we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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