Ian Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 euro pretty blah other than a northern stream vort dropping se to our west around feb 10. it looked sorta interesting for like half a second then not really. run not done.. out to 222 there's a whole lotta warmth to the west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I tried to tell you all this was gonna happen! La Nina February climo ftw I'm-a waitin for my pattern flip LOLOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Once again, the "pattern change" is turning into a cold front passage that will drop our temps a couple degrees below normal for 2-3 days and then it's right back to pseudo-spring. The -NAO that was advertised a few days ago has now been dropped by the progs. GFS still hangs onto the big +PNA ridge out west through the ensemble run, but the Euro looks like it's already decaying by Day 10. PV is not dropping into Hudson Bay in the long range anymore, as was previously forecast, but remains stuck near the Davis Straights were it has been all freaking winter. Edit...forget "decaying". PNA ridge is completely GONE on the Day 10 prog on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 looks like gulf of alaska low might be setting up shop again at the end of the run. coldest air in southern canada is near new england if that's any sort of good news. northern plains torch inching east into 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 ric's coldest 850 temp from 0-240 hour is -4c just pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 maybe we can get things right by march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Once again, the "pattern change" is turning into a cold front passage that will drop our temps a couple degrees below normal for 2-3 days and then it's right back to pseudo-spring. The -NAO that was advertised a few days ago has now been dropped by the progs. GFS still hangs onto the big +PNA ridge out west through the ensemble run, but the Euro looks like it's already decaying by Day 10. PV is not dropping into Hudson Bay in the long range anymore, as was previously forecast, but remains stuck near the Davis Straights were it has been all freaking winter. That it keeps a positive NAO is a bad sign. My 2 week cold period doesn't even look seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro could easily be wrong though...its not consistent enough to take seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I tried to tell you all this was gonna happen! La Nina February climo ftw I'm-a waitin for my pattern flip LOLOLOL Nothing is believable except the weather outside. I wonder if the programs that are the heart of the computer models are too precise, too complex. Are efforts to predict weather 10-20-30 days in advance causing models to be less accurate than they might be if they were run only to about 7 days. I don't know any of those answers, but something makes these things jump around like a rabbit. I would love to see our mets just take the initial conditions globally and write a general forecast for each day 1 through 7 and then compare that with what actually happens and then compare that with the model forecast for each individual day that was predicted 5 days earlier by the chosen model. Anyway, just rambling thoughts since there's nothing else to do but gripe. I never have figured out why 99% of the planet needs weather forecasts 2 weeks in advance. Just to see if we can do it, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Best. Winter. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Best. Winter. Extended Fall. Ever. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Best. Winter. Ever. Next winter, when we're rocking SECS after MECS after HECS, I want you to post a blog about how miserable you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Next winter, when we're rocking SECS after MECS after HECS, I want you to post a blog about how miserable you are Careful, we may start calling you BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Careful, we may start calling you BB 2012-13 will be rockin'. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nothing is believable except the weather outside. I wonder if the programs that are the heart of the computer models are too precise, too complex. Are efforts to predict weather 10-20-30 days in advance causing models to be less accurate than they might be if they were run only to about 7 days. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 2012-13 will be rockin'. Book it. Nino or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Warm winters end cold so everyone get out and enjoy spring today while it lasts...this nice wx may be a lot harder to come by in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 maybe we can get things right by march Based on what happened following the three warmest December-January combinations in DC history, that may not be all that far-fetched. As I noted on this thread -- http://www.americanw...t-in-dc-history -- the three warmest combinations are December 1931-January 1932, December 1949-January 1950 (also a La Nina), and December 1889-January 1890. In February 1932 and February 1950, there was only a trace of snow; and in February 1890, there was just 1.5 inches. However, the March totals in those snow seasons were as follows, with the total snowfall for each season in parentheses: March 1932: 4.0 inches (Total: 5.0 inches) March 1950: 3.1 inches (Total: 3.4 inches) March 1890: 5.0 inches (Total: 6.5 inches) So, not exactly March blizzards, but at least something after next to nothing previously for the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 With the AO still below 4, I still see a chance at some snow. Everyone who was advising against taking some of the better model runs to the bank are now jumping ship because of a couple runs of the Euro. And the 5 day plus Euro for that matter! Which has clearly been atrocious. Its obviously frustrating, but the models are having serious problems with this pattern. This is coming from a historian, not a meteorologist, so take it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Warm winters end cold so everyone get out and enjoy spring today while it lasts...this nice wx may be a lot harder to come by in April. Please don't say that. AHHHHHHHHG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 the problem with being neutral/open minded with respect to the upcoming weeks/month is 1) persistence 2) nina climo 3) we live in DC so it isn't a blank canvas we are working with....the default positon is epic suck and we need overwhelming evidence and momentum to get that unstuck.....having snow climo and maybe MJO on our side for the next 2-3 weeks is one thing to help get it unstuck, so there is no reason to give up on a small frozen event or 2....but it is much more reasonable to buy into bad model solutions simply because those solutions are more probable....solutions that go against the default outside of 3-4 days don't mean a whole lot.... so my attitude now is not to worry about the models outside 96 hours...I am going to assume they will suck or if they are good that they are wrong....focus on 3-4 days ahead and take score in 6 weeks....maybe we get a March 99, or Feb 2006, or March 2009....maybe we get something minor...or maybe we get shut out....we will see This goes into the more fun/anecdotal category, but I still like a huge east coast storm in March to bookend the filth that came in between.....problem for me is climo so it could be a 6" JYO event and .75" of slop for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 the problem with being neutral/open minded with respect to the upcoming weeks/month is 1) persistence 2) nina climo 3) we live in DC so it isn't a blank canvas we are working with....the default positon is epic suck and we need overwhelming evidence and momentum to get that unstuck.....having snow climo and maybe MJO on our side for the next 2-3 weeks is one thing to help get it unstuck, so there is no reason to give up on a small frozen event or 2....but it is much more reasonable to buy into bad model solutions simply because those solutions are more probable....solutions that go against the default outside of 3-4 days don't mean a whole lot.... so my attitude now is not to worry about the models outside 96 hours...I am going to assume they will suck or if they are good that they are wrong....focus on 3-4 days ahead and take score in 6 weeks....maybe we get a March 99, or Feb 2006, or March 2009....maybe we get something minor...or maybe we get shut out....we will see This goes into the more fun/anecdotal category, but I still like a huge east coast storm in March to bookend the filth that came in between.....problem for me is climo so it could be a 6" JYO event and .75" of slop for me Very reasonable approach IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 zwtys wrote... "1) persistence 2) nina climo 3) we live in DC so it isn't a blank canvas we are working with....the default positon is epic suck and we need overwhelming evidence and momentum to get that unstuck.....having snow climo and maybe MJO on our side for the next 2-3 weeks is one thing to help get it unstuck, so there is no reason to give up on a small frozen event or 2....but it is much more reasonable to buy into bad model solutions simply because those solutions are more probable....solutions that go against the default outside of 3-4 days don't mean a whole lot...." Well said...this should be everyones expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The ensembles still show we have a chance at something: http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf120.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The ensembles still show we have a chance at something: http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf120.html Wow, 7 out of 10 show at least two inches not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow, 7 out of 10 show at least two inches not bad... I am sure Wes will be here soon to tell us why we still have almost no chance at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am sure Wes the 18Z will be here soon to tell us why we still have almost no chance at anything. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am sure Wes will be here soon to tell us why we still have almost no chance at anything. I think I've discovered the secret key to unlock the snow maps of the ensembles. Choose the one that shows the least snow and run with it. Been a good method up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18z not even close for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am with WxUSAF on next winter Rockin. I went in detail about winter 2012-2013 and some people got angry, because this winter is not over with. Anyway my hopes are slim without the(-NAO) no big snows. 75% of winter is over in my book with the pattern. Hope we can squeeze something out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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