H2O Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Best. Winter. Extended Fall. Ever. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Best. Winter. Ever. Next winter, when we're rocking SECS after MECS after HECS, I want you to post a blog about how miserable you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Next winter, when we're rocking SECS after MECS after HECS, I want you to post a blog about how miserable you are Careful, we may start calling you BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Careful, we may start calling you BB 2012-13 will be rockin'. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nothing is believable except the weather outside. I wonder if the programs that are the heart of the computer models are too precise, too complex. Are efforts to predict weather 10-20-30 days in advance causing models to be less accurate than they might be if they were run only to about 7 days. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 2012-13 will be rockin'. Book it. Nino or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Warm winters end cold so everyone get out and enjoy spring today while it lasts...this nice wx may be a lot harder to come by in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 maybe we can get things right by march Based on what happened following the three warmest December-January combinations in DC history, that may not be all that far-fetched. As I noted on this thread -- http://www.americanw...t-in-dc-history -- the three warmest combinations are December 1931-January 1932, December 1949-January 1950 (also a La Nina), and December 1889-January 1890. In February 1932 and February 1950, there was only a trace of snow; and in February 1890, there was just 1.5 inches. However, the March totals in those snow seasons were as follows, with the total snowfall for each season in parentheses: March 1932: 4.0 inches (Total: 5.0 inches) March 1950: 3.1 inches (Total: 3.4 inches) March 1890: 5.0 inches (Total: 6.5 inches) So, not exactly March blizzards, but at least something after next to nothing previously for the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 With the AO still below 4, I still see a chance at some snow. Everyone who was advising against taking some of the better model runs to the bank are now jumping ship because of a couple runs of the Euro. And the 5 day plus Euro for that matter! Which has clearly been atrocious. Its obviously frustrating, but the models are having serious problems with this pattern. This is coming from a historian, not a meteorologist, so take it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Warm winters end cold so everyone get out and enjoy spring today while it lasts...this nice wx may be a lot harder to come by in April. Please don't say that. AHHHHHHHHG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 the problem with being neutral/open minded with respect to the upcoming weeks/month is 1) persistence 2) nina climo 3) we live in DC so it isn't a blank canvas we are working with....the default positon is epic suck and we need overwhelming evidence and momentum to get that unstuck.....having snow climo and maybe MJO on our side for the next 2-3 weeks is one thing to help get it unstuck, so there is no reason to give up on a small frozen event or 2....but it is much more reasonable to buy into bad model solutions simply because those solutions are more probable....solutions that go against the default outside of 3-4 days don't mean a whole lot.... so my attitude now is not to worry about the models outside 96 hours...I am going to assume they will suck or if they are good that they are wrong....focus on 3-4 days ahead and take score in 6 weeks....maybe we get a March 99, or Feb 2006, or March 2009....maybe we get something minor...or maybe we get shut out....we will see This goes into the more fun/anecdotal category, but I still like a huge east coast storm in March to bookend the filth that came in between.....problem for me is climo so it could be a 6" JYO event and .75" of slop for me Very reasonable approach IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 zwtys wrote... "1) persistence 2) nina climo 3) we live in DC so it isn't a blank canvas we are working with....the default positon is epic suck and we need overwhelming evidence and momentum to get that unstuck.....having snow climo and maybe MJO on our side for the next 2-3 weeks is one thing to help get it unstuck, so there is no reason to give up on a small frozen event or 2....but it is much more reasonable to buy into bad model solutions simply because those solutions are more probable....solutions that go against the default outside of 3-4 days don't mean a whole lot...." Well said...this should be everyones expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The ensembles still show we have a chance at something: http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf120.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The ensembles still show we have a chance at something: http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf120.html Wow, 7 out of 10 show at least two inches not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow, 7 out of 10 show at least two inches not bad... I am sure Wes will be here soon to tell us why we still have almost no chance at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am sure Wes the 18Z will be here soon to tell us why we still have almost no chance at anything. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am sure Wes will be here soon to tell us why we still have almost no chance at anything. I think I've discovered the secret key to unlock the snow maps of the ensembles. Choose the one that shows the least snow and run with it. Been a good method up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18z not even close for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am with WxUSAF on next winter Rockin. I went in detail about winter 2012-2013 and some people got angry, because this winter is not over with. Anyway my hopes are slim without the(-NAO) no big snows. 75% of winter is over in my book with the pattern. Hope we can squeeze something out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 At least the 18z GFS shows plenty of potential threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am with WxUSAF on next winter Rockin. I went in detail about winter 2012-2013 and some people got angry, because this winter is not over with. Anyway my hopes are slim without the(-NAO) no big snows. 75% of winter is over in my book with the pattern. Hope we can squeeze something out soon. if it's another nina we might have to shut the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 if it's another nina we might have to shut the board Can we honestly vote that if it's showing Nina signs in Sept that we just shut er down for a while? It takes a toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 we're in a -PDO regime....there wont be a lot of ninos So you're thinking we go 3 Nina's in a row... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 probably, but i dont know jb is calling for a moderate Nino next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 zwyts..how much snow are we getting in February? I am not willing to punt this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 zwyts..how much snow are we getting in February? I am not willing to punt this month 20-40, or part of that at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 20-40, or part of that at least is your name zwyts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 is your name zwyts? probably less than 10 in dc. 90% confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I thought you were going for a semi-big DCA winter....no big February storm? January was my month if that thought had any real basis. I like your numbers I think. Meant 10 total not 10 in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 i have no idea....WAG between today and 3/1 DCA: 4.8" IAD: 6.5" this is not the winter of many events....so I am thinking that comes in 2 events.....and then maybe 1 more in March pretty aggressive..id be happy with 1/2 of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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