WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Day 10-11 timeframe has a very nice look. -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, troughing near NF, signs of split flow. But as they say, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. I think the GFS is on "fool me for the 173rd time" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Day 10-11 timeframe has a very nice look. -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, troughing near NF, signs of split flow. But as they say, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. I think the GFS is on "fool me for the 173rd time" BBs call will come true, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Day 10-11 timeframe has a very nice look. -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, troughing near NF, signs of split flow. But as they say, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. I think the GFS is on "fool me for the 173rd time" Won't be long until these "day 10 looks great" posts are referring to mid-March and we can all finally give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Day 10-11 timeframe has a very nice look. -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, troughing near NF, signs of split flow. But as they say, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. I think the GFS is on "fool me for the 173rd time" But it does have company. This is the 1st time this year where I've been interested at this time range. This is not quite the same deal as we've had. Still might lead to nothing but the pattern is the best we've seen on a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 LMFAO Day 10-11 timeframe has a very nice look. -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, troughing near NF, signs of split flow. But as they say, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. I think the GFS is on "fool me for the 173rd time" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Won't be long until these "day 10 looks great" posts are referring to mid-March and we can all finally give up. hopefully sooner than later.. winter starts to get lame around this time every year even if feb can be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 But it does have company. This is the 1st time this year where I've been interested at this time range. This is not quite the same deal as we've had. Still might lead to nothing but the pattern is the best we've seen on a forecast. Wes, its a good sign when you are being interested in an event time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 168 hr gfs is very interesting. It and the euro are now suggesting we are going into a week period where we ahve the potential for getting a snowstorm. The high in canada is in a great spot. Something to watch and it's inside 10 days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 hopefully sooner than later.. winter starts to get lame around this time every year even if feb can be good. sun angle melts the snow too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Won't be long until these "day 10 looks great" posts are referring to mid-March and we can all finally give up. I think they'll keep trying up until mid April in the NYC forum. They are getting excited about Day 10/11 stuff on the GFS, speaking in what amounts to near certainty that a storm will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wes, its a good sign when you are being interested in an event time frame. I'm not interesting in an event as the models will have no skill at that time range. I'm more interested in the pattern that will be setting up that will probably give us a couple shots at getting shortwaves in the right place. Whether that happens or not still is up in the air but at least the forecast pattern is a decent one for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm not interesting in an event as the models will have no skill at that time range. I'm more interested in the pattern that will be setting up that will probably give us a couple shots at getting shortwaves in the right place. Whether that happens or not still is up in the air but at least the forecast pattern is a decent one for a change. You see things that I can't see, but, I've always liked the pattern (judged only by 850/surface quick glance) shown on the GFS around the 300+ time frame. Small events, but reliable. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 hopefully sooner than later.. winter starts to get lame around this time every year even if feb can be good. Man, you normally at least wait until a week before your vacations to become anti-snow. A full month in advance this time. And yeah, Feb is lame. I wish we had just torched in February '10 because snow in February sucks, regardless of the amount. And PDS2 too...lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You see things that I can't see, but, I've always liked the pattern (judged only by 850/surface quick glance) shown on the GFS around the 300+ time frame. Small events, but reliable. Any thoughts? By 192 hours we have a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern, that's a cobo we haven't seen yet this year. The models are also forecasting a low just east or northeast of Nova Scotia to the south of the building heights over greenland. That's another plus, whether the models are correct is still up in the air. that's still beyond the time range when there is much skill. However the 5 day centered mean also would have a pretty decent look which is a little more predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Man, you normally at least wait until a week before your vacations to become anti-snow. A full month in advance this time. And yeah, Feb is lame. I wish we had just torched in February '10 because snow in February sucks, regardless of the amount. And PDS2 too...lame. i know we get good snow in feb but by late jan winter wears on me. granted this one hasnt been too bad. i like light and life... sorry. i do hope it snows while it still can tho. i'll not make any more similar comments in this thread i know they bother people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 i know we get good snow in feb but by late jan winter wears on me. granted this one hasnt been too bad. i like light and life... sorry. i do hope it snows while it still can tho. i'll not make any more similar comments in this thread i know they bother people. I was just messing with you man, I understood. exactly what you meant. I guess my wink and tongue smilies at the end didn't help convey exactly what I wanted, lol. I start to root for warmth/spring by astronomical Spring, maybe a week later when any snow is usually just white rain (unless the snow prospects look terrible in early March, then obviously sooner). I enjoy light and the other aspects of the warm season as well, but we only have 3.5 months a year to get snow, so I want as much as possible during that time. I'm not one who would want to live in Maine or Alaska or even SNE -it would get pretty depressing, heh...give me the 4 distinct seasons of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 12Z Euro has a different look to GFS - shifts the low north and west compared to GFS at hour 144, from northern alabama to almost southern Missouri - not as good a look for us, perhaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 12Z Euro has a different look to GFS - shifts the low north and west compared to GFS at hour 144, from northern alabama to almost southern Missouri - not as good a look for us, perhaps... Clobbers New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Clobbers New England that's usually what a better pattern does unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 that's usually what a better pattern does unfortunately At least our rain would be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 DT on facebook saying the models are going to flip-flop and it won't be cold/stormy... Gives me greater confidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 DT on facebook saying the models are going to flip-flop and it won't be cold/stormy... Gives me greater confidence... 2 weeks ago he would have been right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wxrisk.com WHO IS BS-ing WHOM? here is the DAY 10 EURO ENSEMBLE 500 MB... JB and his fanatical followers clowns can say that "ALL the model are in agreement" .. or "ALL the Models bring PV from N of alaska south into central eastern "Canada ... but as you can see this is plain old Bull****http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/INFOCUS/00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNH240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Won't be long until these "day 10 looks great" posts are referring to mid-March and we can all finally give up. You're good to go up at your cabin until early April, occasionally later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I can't put together what the euro does between 144 and 168 @ 850. Is it a miller B scenario? 850 track from tx panhandle to the ar/tn border and then off the nj coast. Does the primary drive into oh valley before jumping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think they'll keep trying up until mid April in the NYC forum. They are getting excited about Day 10/11 stuff on the GFS, speaking in what amounts to near certainty that a storm will occur. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I can't put together what the euro does between 144 and 168 @ 850. Is it a miller B scenario? 850 track from tx panhandle to the ar/tn border and then off the nj coast. Does the primary drive into oh valley before jumping? this will help but won't make you feel any better as to the result freebies off the Euro site are the 12hr increments for 5H and 850 temps here's 156 hr link http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mid_tropospheric_flow_and_boundary_layer_temperature!156!North%20America!z500_t850!pop!od!oper!w_z500t850!2012012712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It really doesn't matter what the models say beyond 3 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It really doesn't matter what the models say beyond 3 days or so. I enjoy reading fiction just as much as non-fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It really doesn't matter what the models say beyond 3 days or so. This. For any evidence needed, just reference their forecasts for tomorrow 7 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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