ohleary Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Come back 1 year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 euro is out to 12....I think we are all collectively losing it at this point...we need something to look forward to soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 euro is out to 12....I think we are all collectively losing it at this point...we need something to look forward to soon Delusion and impatience has set in...even in the NE subforum...people think the Feb 3-6 threats were really good when most of the mets specifically said they were gravy/bonus if they happened. Admittedly in a bad winter, people get antsy anytime they have to wait...and then there is no guarantee a 3-6 day window will deliver...the Euro ensemble breaking down the PNA is annoying, but it tries to build it back again at the end of its run suggesting that a wane in it would be temporary..but all of those speculations are fleeting at this time range. I would def focus on the Feb 9-14 period and hope it works out right now and worry about the other stuff later. Bad winters bring out the worst subjective qualities in all of us...myself included even when I try to remain objective as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Apparently the 00z GFS ensembles were good to have the Feb 11 threat still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Delusion and impatience has set in...even in the NE subforum...people think the Feb 3-6 threats were really good when most of the mets specifically said they were gravy/bonus if they happened. Admittedly in a bad winter, people get antsy anytime they have to wait...and then there is no guarantee a 3-6 day window will deliver...the Euro ensemble breaking down the PNA is annoying, but it tries to build it back again at the end of its run suggesting that a wane in it would be temporary..but all of those speculations are fleeting at this time range. I would def focus on the Feb 9-14 period and hope it works out right now and worry about the other stuff later. Bad winters bring out the worst subjective qualities in all of us...myself included even when I try to remain objective as possible. I think everyone wants a huge complex running into a cold dome well modeled 6-8 days in advance....and unfortunately that isn't going to happen in a Nina, especially this one....we are way too dependent on moving parts and transient features.....i think too much was staked on the upcoming pattern and too much is staked on potentially breaking it down....I think even a modest snowfall by the 15th would soothe a lot of people, certainly down here....the "good" period could end up being 2/20-3/05 or something for all I know if we are going to even get one.....We are all going to wait until the end to score the winter, but punting good periods of climo is painful and there is no way around that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 lots of punts this year.....SE and S mid atlantic hasn't even had a first down. so far outside of alaska it would appear the spine of the green mtns have done decent as well as nw 1/2 of maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I think everyone wants a huge complex running into a cold dome well modeled 6-8 days in advance....and unfortunately that isn't going to happen in a Nina, especially this one....we are way too dependent on moving parts and transient features.....i think too much was staked on the upcoming pattern and too much is staked on potentially breaking it down....I think even a modest snowfall by the 15th would soothe a lot of people, certainly down here....the "good" period could end up being 2/20-3/05 or something for all I know if we are going to even get one.....We are all going to wait until the end to score the winter, but punting good periods of climo is painful and there is no way around that.... Definitely true...esp down there where March is generally a wasteland except trashcan events. Occasionally a 1999 comes around, but its rare. But we'll probably have to wait and see how this one window turns out before jumping just yet. There are a lot of things working for a decent period...the caveats for DC will always be in place in a Nina since there is no STJ. But we also shouldn't pretend DC averages 2.5" of snow in Ninas like NYCer pretend they average 49" of snow per year...snow events happen there, and the upcoming pattern is probably a good chance for that to happen. The uncertainty in the longevity of this period is interesting to me...we obviously hope the other ensembles outside of the Euro ensembles are correct which is generally a losing battle...but even a compromise will help a lot. Tropical forcing suggest that any breakdown in the PNA would be fleeting...but I'm not confident in the tropical forcing forecasts either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 just an absolutely awful run of the euro.....so much for looking to the models for hope (delusional or not)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro takes the possible weekend event into Minnesota. Canadian takes it into the Lakes. Ukmet takes it up the Apps. GFS suppresses and shears it taking it off N Carolina and Virginia. Nam looks to follow the GFS lead. Nothing like having good agreement between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 06Z GFS supresses and shears the weekend event. It does have a followup low form on the coast but takes it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wasn't it just about 6 days ago that the 10 days were showing a big western ridge and a deep eastern trough? Well, it doesn't look to happen. This is the problem. Trusting the same models that can't get a 4 day solution correct to deliver a pattern change correctly seems iffy at best to me. I hope we get one, and I think we'll stumble into something being that its only Feb 1, but to hang our hat on any real change seems like fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Definitely true...esp down there where March is generally a wasteland except trashcan events. Occasionally a 1999 comes around, but its rare. But we'll probably have to wait and see how this one window turns out before jumping just yet. There are a lot of things working for a decent period...the caveats for DC will always be in place in a Nina since there is no STJ. But we also shouldn't pretend DC averages 2.5" of snow in Ninas like NYCer pretend they average 49" of snow per year...snow events happen there, and the upcoming pattern is probably a good chance for that to happen. The uncertainty in the longevity of this period is interesting to me...we obviously hope the other ensembles outside of the Euro ensembles are correct which is generally a losing battle...but even a compromise will help a lot. Tropical forcing suggest that any breakdown in the PNA would be fleeting...but I'm not confident in the tropical forcing forecasts either. One discouraging thing is everytime the models look to at least poke some ridging into Greenland they back off. The blocking still is not where it does us much good so we have to get lucky and it's hard to get a system to come south of us unless something happens like is forecast byt the gfs. I wish I hadn't post my we'll get near average snowfall post as I think we probably won't and people read it as being really bullish and even accused me of pulling a Accuwx Henry. As Matt notes, we'll have to see how things play out. The models are having enough troble with the pattern that it is likely we won't see a storm, should one occur, only 3 or 4 days prior to it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wasn't it just about 6 days ago that the 10 days were showing a big western ridge and a deep eastern trough? Well, it doesn't look to happen. This is the problem. Trusting the same models that can't get a 4 day solution correct to deliver a pattern change correctly seems iffy at best to me. I hope we get one, and I think we'll stumble into something being that its only Feb 1, but to hang our hat on any real change seems like fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wes...hard to imagine anyone, anywhere, accusing you of hype. Ridiculous. Frankly, your sobering posts about the difficulty of getting snow into the MA this winter have helped me at least set my expectations accordingly. Which is a good thing, as ordinarily the 1.5 inches that have fallen at my house, total, would have me pretty pissed. As it stands, there really have not been any systems that have really disappointed, and a large part of that is that you consistently have spread the word about how terrible this pattern is for snow on the East Coast and particularly in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It's all kinda funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wes...hard to imagine anyone, anywhere, accusing you of hype. Ridiculous. Frankly, your sobering posts about the difficulty of getting snow into the MA this winter have helped me at least set my expectations accordingly. Which is a good thing, as ordinarily the 1.5 inches that have fallen at my house, total, would have me pretty pissed. As it stands, there really have not been any systems that have really disappointed, and a large part of that is that you consistently have spread the word about how terrible this pattern is for snow on the East Coast and particularly in our neck of the woods. But my last post was my most optimistic even though the atlantic still is not very good. Even by nin standards, this winter has been a dog. The graphic below doesn't have last year in it but you can get a feel for La nina years if you discount 1995-1996. It's the ultimate anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Today's Board Despondency level: 7 in just 10 days though! I'm still not punting on the weekend potential. Maybe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It's all kinda funny. It is funny, a friend sent me an e-mail saying how funny he thought the comments were. I particularly liked the one that said neither Bob Ryan or I could forecast snow. I thought it funny as this year I haven't even had a chance at forecasting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Today's Board Despondency level: 7 in just 10 days though! I'm still not punting on the weekend potential. Maybe tomorrow. don't worry the ground hog will save us tomorrow with 6 more weeks of this great winter will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 don't worry the ground hog will save us tomorrow with 6 more weeks of this great winter will continue Maybe it will be 6 weeks of actual winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Don't worry. Cold and stormy will be coming to the mid atlantic....in April. It is funny, a friend sent me an e-mail saying how funny he thought the comments were. I particularly liked the one that said neither Bob Ryan or I could forecast snow. I thought it funny as this year I haven't even had a chance at forecasting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Don't worry. Cold and stormy will be coming to the mid atlantic....in April. Just in time for bb's 20-40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Just in time for bb's 20-40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Just in time for bb's 20-40 inches. I like when Wes trolls. Sadly, this will likely be the highlight of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I like when Wes trolls. Sadly, this will likely be the highlight of this winter. Let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 That is the kind of thing that is both depressing/uplifting. No model solution/pattern can be relied upon. So if we aren't seeing what we want, we at least have reason to believe its wrong. But at this point, I think you have to think that what we are going to get is more of the same. It's like the inertia, or lack thereof, of the pattern. It's probably more likely that it remains like it is than it is to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I like when Wes trolls. Sadly, this will likely be the highlight of this winter. its a shame BB won't be around to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 its a shame BB won't be around to see it Is he gone forever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Today's Board Despondency level: 7 in just 10 days though! I'm still not punting on the weekend potential. Maybe tomorrow. Just wait until we get a southern snowstorm. I can just feel that coming. A massive arctic front and then a storm that slams about 35 degrees latitude from Arkansas to NC. That's probably when I get banned. NCEP daily update. 10:10 and the NAM is out to 45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Is he gone forever? Does he get his donation back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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