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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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I, for one, cannot decide whether I will miss his expertise or his friendship more. Those late autumn days, with Winter closing in, he alone served as the voice of reason, displaying a deep sense of both professionalism and humilty. It was only during these final weeks where we got to know him as a man. His somber, yet graceful, analysis. The daily dose of optimism and inspiration delivered not only to me, but to all who deigned to listen. Indeed, he was a icon-- but more importantly, he was my friend. And I will miss him greatly, not only for what he did for me, but for his undeniable contribution to civilization.

:lmao:

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I, for one, cannot decide whether I will miss his expertise or his friendship more. Those late autumn days, with Winter closing in, he alone served as the voice of reason, displaying a deep sense of both professionalism and humilty. It was only during these final weeks where we got to know him as a man. His somber, yet graceful, analysis. The daily dose of optimism and inspiration delivered not only to me, but to all who deigned to listen. Indeed, he was a icon-- but more importantly, he was my friend. And I will miss him greatly, not only for what he did for me, but for his undeniable contribution to civilization.

This. He will be missed.

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I, for one, cannot decide whether I will miss his expertise or his friendship more. Those late autumn days, with Winter closing in, he alone served as the voice of reason, displaying a deep sense of both professionalism and humilty. It was only during these final weeks where we got to know him as a man. His somber, yet graceful, analysis. The daily dose of optimism and inspiration delivered not only to me, but to all who deigned to listen. Indeed, he was a icon-- but more importantly, he was my friend. And I will miss him greatly, not only for what he did for me, but for his undeniable contribution to civilization.

Epic and totally agree.

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I think we manage to get at least 1 decent event this winter

just a gut call, but there are too many things that suggest it will happen and I think our bad luck has to run out eventually

I hope so... but we are runnung out of time with the angle of the cold and the sun. :(

For real though, I believe we see one more small event... like a 2"er

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I hope so... but we are runnung out of time with the angle of the cold and the sun. :(

For real though, I believe we see one more small event... like a 2"er

Outside of the October snow, that would be the largest of the winter.

And, no, I don't think it will happen. The bad attitude has now completely taken over. In my wildest imagination, I would have never seen this coming. We can't even get a real cold front. Sunday's cold front sent my temps Monday plunging all the way to only slightly above normal.

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I tried to troll you on the main board about writing a column for CWG everytime the GFS long range flipped(which was everyday) and that you should just stick with your warm and snowless forecast but they apparently think you couldnt handle it and removed it.

It was a sweet kind of trolling too:)

Wes is troll proof. Unfortunately you trolled Winter last Summer and killed it.

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i dont often get too far into comments these days on CWG unless it's a forecast post or a climo post. i wouldnt take it too personally.. people are jerks particularly when they are anonymous.

I think most of the comments are funny even the HM comparison. I suspect the post about not being able to forecast snow was made by a kid.

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Any truth to some snow and ice for us this weekend per the 12z GFS? I just saw DT say something... I doubt highly, but just making sure

Not from the operational. There are a few ens members that would give us a chance at getting snow so maybe that's what he is refering to. I think it's a long shot.

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euro pretty blah other than a northern stream vort dropping se to our west around feb 10. it looked sorta interesting for like half a second then not really. run not done.. out to 222 there's a whole lotta warmth to the west again.

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Once again, the "pattern change" is turning into a cold front passage that will drop our temps a couple degrees below normal for 2-3 days and then it's right back to pseudo-spring.

The -NAO that was advertised a few days ago has now been dropped by the progs. GFS still hangs onto the big +PNA ridge out west through the ensemble run, but the Euro looks like it's already decaying by Day 10. PV is not dropping into Hudson Bay in the long range anymore, as was previously forecast, but remains stuck near the Davis Straights were it has been all freaking winter.

Edit...forget "decaying". PNA ridge is completely GONE on the Day 10 prog on the Euro.

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looks like gulf of alaska low might be setting up shop again at the end of the run. coldest air in southern canada is near new england if that's any sort of good news. northern plains torch inching east into 240.

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Once again, the "pattern change" is turning into a cold front passage that will drop our temps a couple degrees below normal for 2-3 days and then it's right back to pseudo-spring.

The -NAO that was advertised a few days ago has now been dropped by the progs. GFS still hangs onto the big +PNA ridge out west through the ensemble run, but the Euro looks like it's already decaying by Day 10. PV is not dropping into Hudson Bay in the long range anymore, as was previously forecast, but remains stuck near the Davis Straights were it has been all freaking winter.

That it keeps a positive NAO is a bad sign. My 2 week cold period doesn't even look seasonal.

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I tried to tell you all this was gonna happen! La Nina February climo ftw

I'm-a waitin for my pattern flip LOLOLOL

Nothing is believable except the weather outside. I wonder if the programs that are the heart of the computer models are too precise, too complex. Are efforts to predict weather 10-20-30 days in advance causing models to be less accurate than they might be if they were run only to about 7 days. I don't know any of those answers, but something makes these things jump around like a rabbit. I would love to see our mets just take the initial conditions globally and write a general forecast for each day 1 through 7 and then compare that with what actually happens and then compare that with the model forecast for each individual day that was predicted 5 days earlier by the chosen model.

Anyway, just rambling thoughts since there's nothing else to do but gripe. I never have figured out why 99% of the planet needs weather forecasts 2 weeks in advance. Just to see if we can do it, I guess.

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