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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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Wasn't it just about 6 days ago that the 10 days were showing a big western ridge and a deep eastern trough? Well, it doesn't look to happen. This is the problem. Trusting the same models that can't get a 4 day solution correct to deliver a pattern change correctly seems iffy at best to me. I hope we get one, and I think we'll stumble into something being that its only Feb 1, but to hang our hat on any real change seems like fantasy.

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Definitely true...esp down there where March is generally a wasteland except trashcan events. Occasionally a 1999 comes around, but its rare.

But we'll probably have to wait and see how this one window turns out before jumping just yet. There are a lot of things working for a decent period...the caveats for DC will always be in place in a Nina since there is no STJ. But we also shouldn't pretend DC averages 2.5" of snow in Ninas like NYCer pretend they average 49" of snow per year...snow events happen there, and the upcoming pattern is probably a good chance for that to happen.

The uncertainty in the longevity of this period is interesting to me...we obviously hope the other ensembles outside of the Euro ensembles are correct which is generally a losing battle...but even a compromise will help a lot.

Tropical forcing suggest that any breakdown in the PNA would be fleeting...but I'm not confident in the tropical forcing forecasts either.

One discouraging thing is everytime the models look to at least poke some ridging into Greenland they back off. The blocking still is not where it does us much good so we have to get lucky and it's hard to get a system to come south of us unless something happens like is forecast byt the gfs. I wish I hadn't post my we'll get near average snowfall post as I think we probably won't and people read it as being really bullish and even accused me of pulling a Accuwx Henry. As Matt notes, we'll have to see how things play out. The models are having enough troble with the pattern that it is likely we won't see a storm, should one occur, only 3 or 4 days prior to it happening.

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Wasn't it just about 6 days ago that the 10 days were showing a big western ridge and a deep eastern trough? Well, it doesn't look to happen. This is the problem. Trusting the same models that can't get a 4 day solution correct to deliver a pattern change correctly seems iffy at best to me. I hope we get one, and I think we'll stumble into something being that its only Feb 1, but to hang our hat on any real change seems like fantasy.

post-4-0-72160000-1328103228.gif

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Wes...hard to imagine anyone, anywhere, accusing you of hype. Ridiculous. Frankly, your sobering posts about the difficulty of getting snow into the MA this winter have helped me at least set my expectations accordingly. Which is a good thing, as ordinarily the 1.5 inches that have fallen at my house, total, would have me pretty pissed.

As it stands, there really have not been any systems that have really disappointed, and a large part of that is that you consistently have spread the word about how terrible this pattern is for snow on the East Coast and particularly in our neck of the woods.

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Wes...hard to imagine anyone, anywhere, accusing you of hype. Ridiculous. Frankly, your sobering posts about the difficulty of getting snow into the MA this winter have helped me at least set my expectations accordingly. Which is a good thing, as ordinarily the 1.5 inches that have fallen at my house, total, would have me pretty pissed.

As it stands, there really have not been any systems that have really disappointed, and a large part of that is that you consistently have spread the word about how terrible this pattern is for snow on the East Coast and particularly in our neck of the woods.

But my last post was my most optimistic even though the atlantic still is not very good. Even by nin standards, this winter has been a dog. The graphic below doesn't have last year in it but you can get a feel for La nina years if you discount 1995-1996. It's the ultimate anomaly.

post-70-0-62987700-1328104274.png

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Don't worry. Cold and stormy will be coming to the mid atlantic....in April.

It is funny, a friend sent me an e-mail saying how funny he thought the comments were. I particularly liked the one that said neither Bob Ryan or I could forecast snow. I thought it funny as this year I haven't even had a chance at forecasting snow.

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post-4-0-72160000-1328103228.gif

That is the kind of thing that is both depressing/uplifting. No model solution/pattern can be relied upon. So if we aren't seeing what we want, we at least have reason to believe its wrong. But at this point, I think you have to think that what we are going to get is more of the same. It's like the inertia, or lack thereof, of the pattern. It's probably more likely that it remains like it is than it is to change.

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Today's Board Despondency level: 7

in just 10 days though!

I'm still not punting on the weekend potential. Maybe tomorrow.

Just wait until we get a southern snowstorm. I can just feel that coming. A massive arctic front and then a storm that slams about 35 degrees latitude from Arkansas to NC. That's probably when I get banned.

NCEP daily update. 10:10 and the NAM is out to 45 hours.

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Let's hope not.

I tried to troll you on the main board about writing a column for CWG everytime the GFS long range flipped(which was everyday) and that you should just stick with your warm and snowless forecast but they apparently think you couldnt handle it and removed it.

It was a sweet kind of trolling too:)

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It is funny, a friend sent me an e-mail saying how funny he thought the comments were. I particularly liked the one that said neither Bob Ryan or I could forecast snow. I thought it funny as this year I haven't even had a chance at forecasting snow.

i dont often get too far into comments these days on CWG unless it's a forecast post or a climo post. i wouldnt take it too personally.. people are jerks particularly when they are anonymous.

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why did he get banned? How are we suppose to troll him?

BB getting banned takes him off the hook....its weak...now he cant pay or answer for his crappy forecasting

I, for one, cannot decide whether I will miss his expertise or his friendship more. Those late autumn days, with Winter closing in, he alone served as the voice of reason, displaying a deep sense of both professionalism and humilty. It was only during these final weeks where we got to know him as a man. His somber, yet graceful, analysis. The daily dose of optimism and inspiration delivered not only to me, but to all who deigned to listen. Indeed, he was a icon-- but more importantly, he was my friend. And I will miss him greatly, not only for what he did for me, but for his undeniable contribution to civilization.

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