ravensrule Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 funny how people forget....i keep hearing people say how last year was a blockbuster winter for us You really need therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18z GFS ensemble mean looked better for us re cold air... but I can't find the individual ensembles on E-wall... Likely there are 1 or 2 torchy cutters and a bunch way out to sea that makes it seem colder than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Individual ensembles look very interesting for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Individual ensembles look very interesting for Sunday. They are very consistent with the storm, if not the timing. Funny to see so many of them with the storm on the NC coast just like HPC had said 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 They are very consistent with the storm, if not the timing. Funny to see so many of them with the storm on the NC coast just like HPC had said 3 days ago. Go Member p001 That one always gives me the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well 0z not looking as good as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well 0z not looking as good as 18z It looked like a sheared mess.. prob some light rain and that's it. We shall see shortly if it has an idea for a feb 10-13 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This pattern may not be snowy, but it is prtty bizzare, I'll give it that. ECMWF had the storm going west of Lake Superior, 00z GFS shoves it over Norfolk. The southeast ridge favors a cutter but the ridging over south central canada is blocking the path on the GFS at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It looked like a sheared mess I can honestly say I've never seen a 500 map with that configuration before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This one isn't going to be clear until very close to game time. Temps look iffy even in the best scenarios anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 For the weekend,00Z GFS says: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This one isn't going to be clear until very close to game time. Temps look iffy even in the best scenarios anyway. The fact that there's no real cad sig on the 0z isn't a positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This pattern may not be snowy, but it is prtty bizzare, I'll give it that. ECMWF had the storm going west of Lake Superior, 00z GFS shoves it over Norfolk. The southeast ridge favors a cutter but the ridging over south central canada is blocking the path on the GFS at least. EC has been following GFS this season more times than GFS following EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This one isn't going to be clear until very close to game time. Temps look iffy even in the best scenarios anyway. I have basically moved on to the poss mid feb storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I have basically moved on to the poss mid feb storm tease fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 on a brighter note, CFS is back to an all out blowtorch for FEB http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 http://news.yahoo.com/alaska-volcano-lava-dome-forms-alert-level-raised-010355852.html Maybe a volcano in Alaska can help our prospects! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is just so depressing. I wish this winter would just end already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 back to back storms this run 10th and 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 For the weekend,00Z GFS says: Come back 1 year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Everytime I come here to see whats going with this sucky winter, the mood is always different. One day its optimistic and then its depressing. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 ^ The Northeast is bi-polar. Well I guess I'll take some nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 They've got flowers blooming and green grass growing up in SNE. It's over folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Come back 1 year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 euro is out to 12....I think we are all collectively losing it at this point...we need something to look forward to soon Delusion and impatience has set in...even in the NE subforum...people think the Feb 3-6 threats were really good when most of the mets specifically said they were gravy/bonus if they happened. Admittedly in a bad winter, people get antsy anytime they have to wait...and then there is no guarantee a 3-6 day window will deliver...the Euro ensemble breaking down the PNA is annoying, but it tries to build it back again at the end of its run suggesting that a wane in it would be temporary..but all of those speculations are fleeting at this time range. I would def focus on the Feb 9-14 period and hope it works out right now and worry about the other stuff later. Bad winters bring out the worst subjective qualities in all of us...myself included even when I try to remain objective as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Apparently the 00z GFS ensembles were good to have the Feb 11 threat still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 lots of punts this year.....SE and S mid atlantic hasn't even had a first down. so far outside of alaska it would appear the spine of the green mtns have done decent as well as nw 1/2 of maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I think everyone wants a huge complex running into a cold dome well modeled 6-8 days in advance....and unfortunately that isn't going to happen in a Nina, especially this one....we are way too dependent on moving parts and transient features.....i think too much was staked on the upcoming pattern and too much is staked on potentially breaking it down....I think even a modest snowfall by the 15th would soothe a lot of people, certainly down here....the "good" period could end up being 2/20-3/05 or something for all I know if we are going to even get one.....We are all going to wait until the end to score the winter, but punting good periods of climo is painful and there is no way around that.... Definitely true...esp down there where March is generally a wasteland except trashcan events. Occasionally a 1999 comes around, but its rare. But we'll probably have to wait and see how this one window turns out before jumping just yet. There are a lot of things working for a decent period...the caveats for DC will always be in place in a Nina since there is no STJ. But we also shouldn't pretend DC averages 2.5" of snow in Ninas like NYCer pretend they average 49" of snow per year...snow events happen there, and the upcoming pattern is probably a good chance for that to happen. The uncertainty in the longevity of this period is interesting to me...we obviously hope the other ensembles outside of the Euro ensembles are correct which is generally a losing battle...but even a compromise will help a lot. Tropical forcing suggest that any breakdown in the PNA would be fleeting...but I'm not confident in the tropical forcing forecasts either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro takes the possible weekend event into Minnesota. Canadian takes it into the Lakes. Ukmet takes it up the Apps. GFS suppresses and shears it taking it off N Carolina and Virginia. Nam looks to follow the GFS lead. Nothing like having good agreement between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 06Z GFS supresses and shears the weekend event. It does have a followup low form on the coast but takes it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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