Ji Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 it only shoots up when moisture comes...the euro is abysmal through day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS ensembles dig the Sunday snow chances. Most give us some snow like the Op. A few are suppressed to the south and only one shows rain with a cutter track. The ensemble mean (and nearly all the members) also disagree with the Op's complete abandoning of the cold pattern development. the ensembles are just as bad. Remember last week, they all had a coastal storm 3 days before the event for this past sunday? Every member had one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Not that this was ever in doubt, but since only 1 out of 16 GFS ensemble members has a cutter on Sunday, the Euro cuts that bad boy to Minneapolis. That is completely awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Bad as in unreliable? I'll grant that, but NORMALLY, having such robust consensus 5 days out on the ensembles is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Bad as in unreliable? I'll grant that, but NORMALLY, having such robust consensus 5 days out on the ensembles is a good sign. not really...tell that to last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 it only shoots up when moisture comes...the euro is abysmal through day 7. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This is what I was referring to earlier. It would seem that HPC feels pretty good about a solution near that of the 12z GFS (and did even before it came out), and not one near the EC. This is the latest update. MADE A NUMBER OF COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE...MAINLY TO DEFINE FRONTAL PLACEMENT BETTER...BUT DID NOT ALTER THE FUNDAMENTAL FLOW. THE BEST NEWS FROM THE 12Z/31 CYCLE IS THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MANUAL BLEND...ADDING TREMENDOUSLY TO THE USEFULNESS OF ITS MASS FIELDS...MOS...ETC. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE NOT CONVERGING TOWARD A CONSENSUS...SO DID NOT INCORPORATE ANY OF THEIR IDIOSYNCRASIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If this does come out close to a solution like the 12z GFS from today's runs, props to the excellent work of the HPC mets who were pointing to that solution days ago, even in the midst of model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If this does come out close to a solution like the 12z GFS from today's runs, props to the excellent work of the HPC mets who were pointing to that solution days ago, even in the midst of model chaos. I'll second that one. And they are holding firm even in the face of the mighty Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 FWIW, which isn't much.. but Day 10 EURO looks mighty nice... too bad it will likely be gone by the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 LWX 1/31 afternoon disco for this wknd FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND ANDERY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEVELOP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS CONTINUED HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND DECAY OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ABOUT HALF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. IN THESE RUNS...BROAD SLY FLOW OUT OF THE LOW LEADS TO OVERRUNNING PRECIP SAT NGT INTO SUN. WITH HIPRES TO OUR NORTH...A CAD SETUP WOULD PROVIDE A CONCERN FOR A WINTRY MIX DURING THIS TIME. OTHER RUNS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH EJECTION OF THE UPSTREAM LOW AND STRONGER WITH CANADIAN HIPRES...AND KEEP THE AREA DRY UNTIL SUN NGT-MON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SLOWER/DRIER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE CLOSED LOW FROM REACHING THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION UNTIL ERY NEXT WEEK. POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 FWIW, which isn't much.. but Day 10 EURO looks mighty nice... too bad it will likely be gone by the next run Or maybe the models are starting to catch on.....GFS advertised this first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 But its 4 days out, that is what many on this forum do. They live and die by each and every model run. So what else are they supposed to do? Disregard ? they know deep down what the chances are. it's called hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Forecasting beyond 3-5 days is a wildcard unless there is a strong consensus/signal for a certain pattern..... Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So what else are they supposed to do? Disregard ? they know deep down what the chances are. it's called hope. Not freaking out would go a long way. Buying into one run totally then acting like a baby when it is gone on the next is a too common occurance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well 18z GFS looks progressive... new solution again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well 18z GFS looks progressive... new solution again Weaker and faster, but similar to 12z. Finally, two runs that actually look like they came from the same year. Nobody mentioned this, but at 120, the Euro ens mean looks very much like the GFS at about 6 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 850 line parks itself right over DC during the "event"... which is Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 850 line parks itself right over DC during the "event"... which is Saturday night Look lower...still kind of warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Look lower...still kind of warm. Look lower? I don't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Models always have a tough time with CAD events.. Look for colder/snowier solutions going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Look lower? I don't understand At your weenie, silly... or maybe 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Look lower? I don't understand Lower level.......lol - 850 is not the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think the 18z GFS looks a lot better than the 12z for the weekend and the Yucatan express later in the run is coming back a little towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Lower level.......lol - 850 is not the surface. I figured it out after lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Models always have a tough time with CAD events.. Look for colder/snowier solutions going forward. I think you've got a good handle on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think you've got a good handle on the situation. Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18z GFS ensemble mean looked better for us re cold air... but I can't find the individual ensembles on E-wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18z GFS ensemble mean looked better for us re cold air... but I can't find the individual ensembles on E-wall... Would you shoot a link for that? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 funny how people forget....i keep hearing people say how last year was a blockbuster winter for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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