ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GFS looks pretty good. The high in SE Canada is in a great spot and enough precip still gets into the area. As is always the case I think we see the CAD signature look better and better from here on out. Sneaky storm before the pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GOM TS at 204??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I like that run for the weekend because it will have CT Blizz ready to lose his mind - a little snow for us and nothing for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 snowfall maps on Raleighwx have a few inches for DCA And that is like a blizzard this year! All relative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GFS looks pretty good. You think so? It looks like it all but ends winter around the 10th of Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 in all fairness, considering the 3 local airports have less than 2", I don't think any expectations should be considered unrealistic at this point in the winter Fair enough. I guess I get the sense that people truly expect every winter to produce here...which for this area isn't reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 we have come full circle lol.....the 32nd straight different solution in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gfs says cold cancel what a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You think so? It looks like it all but ends winter around the 10th of Feb... I was referring to this weekend only. Too much model variance to care about beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think the gfs is good but I'm not sure. Looks like a couple pieces of energy slide out off the coast underneath us. First one has a nice hp to the n. Not sure about the second one. The low placement in WV would imply that the column warms up even if it does pass south of us. I can't say I fully understand what the gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thanks for the explanation. It wasn't a very good one. I haven't myself done any real work on predictability in a while, so my answer didn't really address the "why" part of your question....sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hard to get a drier week in the lower 48 than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It wasn't a very good one. I haven't myself done any real work on predictability in a while, so my answer didn't really address the "why" part of your question....sorry. It's fine - I just know a lot of people have made comments about there being so many solutions from run to run to run regarding the weekend and next weeks "threats". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I don't think we can just dismiss the latest GFS solution. It is in line with HPC prelim. maps. It would be nice though to get back to back runs that look somewhat like the same week instead of different months (see below). The current modeling is similar to some of the ens mean solutions that looked so different from the operational in previous runs and now is similar to some of the runs for the same time period from over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Sat evening flurries? Anothere new solution... this time the 0c 850 line plays chicken with DCA hrs 105 to 120 and is either over DCA or just south near EZF when precip is here... then a CAD signal shows up after 120... It's reverting to the solution it had about four days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's reverting to the solution it had about four days ago. This solution seems to make more sense with decent high pressure to the north..not saying it will happen but having it be a midwest cutter like previous runs seemed odd...of course this whole winter has been odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You mean like 20-40" of snow for the mid-Atlantic? I'm not sure what this post means. If you mean the major cities sitting at sea level, then yes, they have averages less than 20". But when you go north and west and UP from those places, I promise you that those areas would average more than 20". Or are you just meaning February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's reverting to the solution it had about four days ago. This is also getting close to the solution put out by HPC about 2 or 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm not sure what this post means. If you mean the major cities sitting at sea level, then yes, they have averages less than 20". But when you go north and west and UP from those places, I promise you that those areas would average more than 20". Or are you just meaning February? I'm fairly sure, JamieO was making a comment regarding BB's 20-40 inch snowfall forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Just so you all know, dtk will be presenting/holding a workshop on the intricacies of models at this year's conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Also, nobody should be punting on the weekend deal yet. And lol at the GFS for the extended. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Just so you all know, dtk will be presenting/holding a workshop on the intricacies of models at this year's conference. Sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Also, nobody should be punting on the weekend deal yet. And lol at the GFS for the extended. Whatever. I am not punting... just laughing at the many different solutions. Its nice to see this "new" solution though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Also, nobody should be punting on the weekend deal yet. And lol at the GFS for the extended. Whatever. But its 4 days out, that is what many on this forum do. They live and die by each and every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 erm..some people here really need to relax..and maybe learn how to interpret a model seriously we know not to take what ANY model shows beyond about 3 days literally. and the 12z GFS run, while different(surprise) still has storm threats on the 11th and the 14th. Its not awful. and it wont be correct whatever it shows this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z will be telling Probably telling us we will get no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z will be telling Trademark infringement. Settle for $20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS ensembles dig the Sunday snow chances. Most give us some snow like the Op. A few are suppressed to the south and only one shows rain with a cutter track. The ensemble mean (and nearly all the members) also disagree with the Op's complete abandoning of the cold pattern development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS ensembles dig the Sunday snow chances. Most give us some snow like the Op. A few are suppressed to the south and only one shows rain with a cutter track. The ensemble mean (and nearly all the members) also disagree with the Op's complete abandoning of the cold pattern development. Good news. The GFS' complete flip for the long range is just loltastic. Strong signal is there and I think the zwyts storm is more likely than the weekend thing, but I'm keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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