Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif These analogs continue to suggest the potential for modest snowfall if the pattern does come through- Here are the snowfalls we would gladly take within a week of those dates (DCA amounts): 2/13-14/70: 3.6" 2/9-10/80: 2.6" 1/21/07: 1.2" 1/26/61: 5.9"' 2/13/78: 1.3" 1/22/05: 3" 1/29-30/05: 2.3" Nothing blockbuster, but some wintry periods. Edited to add: Of course, if you go beyond a week on either side of the analog date, you get some more memorable storms. We are under no illusions that late January-mid February 1961 is about to repeat itself. Yes. I saw the maps and the analogs are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I just want to cry, as usual every storm threat/ cold out break is 10-15 days away never to be realized.18z gfs hurts my heart. The idea that we are going to get a good "period" this winter when some stable wintry pattern locks in is something that has been perpetuated by a lot of people outside this region, people who don't post here, etc. anyone waiting for this "period" is a fool. It is very likely that we are going to get a pattern that is less hostile and more favorable than we have seen this winter and it will be in a period of good snow climo. But we still need some luck and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Nice to see rising pressure over the great lakes durring the storm. I get higher confidence that it won't be a lakes cutter day 6-7. If it's a dud like I am calling for, it will have to cutoff over the 4 corners. Well it does sort of stall in the 4 corners before it cuts on the GFS run at least. Maybe I was partially correct. Needless to say, I will never promise no lakes cutters again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes. I saw the maps and the analogs are decent. nothing like the good old days attached (that yielded nothing), but I'll take what I can get at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm riding p09 of the 18z gfs ensembles for this weekend. Screw the operational. That will last until the next round of ens members. I'll then ride the best looking one of those. The hell with reality. Snow isn't real. It's an obsessive fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm riding p09 of the 18z gfs ensembles for this weekend. Screw the operational. That will last until the next round of ens members. I'll then ride the best looking one of those. The hell with reality. Snow isn't real. It's an obsessive fantasy. Whew.. She's a beauty alright... Ride til ya die... I'm going out with my boots on in this storm... After all stormtracker proclaimed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Congrats Denver. Edit: maybe CO Springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hmm..this might actually be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 And it spins, and it sheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dave aka DT rambling about ice for northern third of VA and MD for Feb 5/6 FWIW, and I know it isnt much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Anything Zwyts on Day 5 to 6 on the EURO? GGEM looked mildly interesting at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Anything Zwyts on Day 5 to 6 on the EURO? GGEM looked mildly interesting at 132 everything gets shunted to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 everything gets shunted to the south Hooray for a totally new solution... it may be Wed before we figure out whats what for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbchandler Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dave aka DT rambling about ice for northern third of VA and MD for Feb 5/6 FWIW, and I know it isnt much. Where does one get DT and this thing about ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Where does one get DT and this thing about ice? http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dave aka DT rambling about ice for northern third of VA and MD for Feb 5/6 FWIW, and I know it isnt much. He was talking about that a day or two ago... at this point, I'm pretty skeptical of any winter threat outside 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am as well skeptical of anything outside of 72hrs as well. Especially on how big of a let down this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am as well skeptical of anything outside of 72hrs as well. Especially on how big of a let down this winter has been. 72 hours, eh? Also, this winter has been/will be a let down if you had, or continue to have, unrealistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Where does one get DT and this thing about ice? Can't happen because I have plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 72 hours, eh? Also, this winter has been/will be a let down if you had, or continue to have, unrealistic expectations. Since you are know models better than any of us here - do you know why the solutions are changing so much between each run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 72 hours, eh? Also, this winter has been/will be a let down if you had, or continue to have, unrealistic expectations. in all fairness, considering the 3 local airports have less than 2", I don't think any expectations should be considered unrealistic at this point in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 in all fairness, considering the 3 local airports have less than 2", I don't think any expectations should be considered unrealistic at this point in the winter I was about to say -- I don't think expecting more than 2" by the beginning of February is unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Since you are know models better than any of us here - do you know why the solutions are changing so much between each run? That depends on what time frame you're talking about. The (main operational) global models have been fine (almost historically good, but not quite as good as last year) in the 72-144h lead time range in terms of forecast skill. In terms of predictability, this year has proven to be slightly more difficult to forecast in the NH for the medium range than the previous several years (as measured by the skill of our frozen CDAS system). This implies that the fundamental predictability (error growth) for the recent regimes(s) has been lower (higher) than seasons past. I think others have touched on the some of the reasons for this in other threads. Lastly, individual solutions/forecasts with lead times of 7-14 days will always swing pretty wildly (this is a predictability/chaos issue). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 72 hours, eh? Also, this winter has been/will be a let down if you had, or continue to have, unrealistic expectations. Like what, a model solution beyond 72 hours that comes anywhere close to what actually happens? I don't think anyone here has had unrealistic expectations. With what the models have done lately, a three day forecast would be just as good if it were a total guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Like what, a model solution beyond 72 hours that comes anywhere close to what actually happens? I don't think anyone here has had unrealistic expectations. With what the models have done lately, a three day forecast would be just as good if it were a total guess. You mean like 20-40" of snow for the mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That depends on what time frame you're talking about. The (main operational) global models have been fine (almost historically good, but not quite as good as last year) in the 72-144h lead time range in terms of forecast skill. In terms of predictability, this year has proven to be slightly more difficult to forecast in the NH for the medium range than the previous several years (as measured by the skill of our frozen CDAS system). This implies that the fundamental predictability (error growth) for the recent regimes(s) has been lower (higher) than seasons past. I think others have touched on the some of the reasons for this in other threads. Lastly, individual solutions/forecasts with lead times of 7-14 days will always swing pretty wildly (this is a predictability/chaos issue). Thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You mean like 20-40" of snow for the mid-Atlantic? I think I kind of remember other times when people got excited by threats that wee very low probability events. Th enice think is we haven't had any the models are crappy threads. Most seem to now understand chaos though occasionally they let their weeny side get the better of them. There's nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Sat evening flurries? Anothere new solution... this time the 0c 850 line plays chicken with DCA hrs 105 to 120 and is either over DCA or just south near EZF when precip is here... then a CAD signal shows up after 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That 0c 850 line from hours 132 - 144 is too funky to be real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Sat evening flurries? Anothere new solution... this time the 0c 850 line plays chicken with DCA hrs 105 to 120 and is either over DCA or just south near EZF when precip is here... then a CAD signal shows up after 120... snowfall maps on Raleighwx have a few inches for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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