WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Thanks, Wes. I wondered if the 2m temps around 144 would be cold enough for frozen since it seems the 850s are above 0C (but not by much). It looks like an overrunning set up, at least right at 144, but then it seems the southern low and the one north of the Lakes somewhat merge. Hard to decipher things at 24hr increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Thanks, Wes. I wondered if the 2m temps around 144 would be cold enough for frozen since it seems the 850s are above 0C (but not by much). It looks like an overrunning set up, at least right at 144, but then it seems the southern low and the one north of the Lakes somewhat merge. Hard to decipher things at 24hr increments. bad news there if that is the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Thanks, Wes. I wondered if the 2m temps around 144 would be cold enough for frozen since it seems the 850s are above 0C (but not by much). It looks like an overrunning set up, at least right at 144, but then it seems the southern low and the one north of the Lakes somewhat merge. Hard to decipher things at 24hr increments. t 186 hr the euro also tries to get a low going near nc but is too sheared to get up to us. That time period still might offer something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 so we went from snow to mix bag to nothing to warm rain for this weekend. good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Can anyone with better Euro access than Raleigh's site tell me what's happening around Day 7? It's a better look than the GFS for sure. Overrunning in there? Temps look warm, but not overwhelmingly so. Edit...should be Day 6-7. its a disaster. The temps are warm and overwhelmingly so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Day 10 500mb pattern has a very nice look with the PV over Hudson Bay and Quebec, with an extension out toward Newfoundland. Ridging completely wrapping that PV from the west coast, up over the pole and back toward Scandanavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Day 10 500mb pattern has a very nice look with the PV over Hudson Bay and Quebec, with an extension out toward Newfoundland. Ridging completely wrapping that PV from the west coast, up over the pole and back toward Scandanavia. Wes...tell us the but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Wes...tell us the but ...but it will probably look much different on the next run since the models are having trouble resolving a new pattern. just a guess he would say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Wes...tell us the but It looks cold and dry but anything that far out in time is likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ...but it will probably look much different on the next run since the models are having trouble resolving a new pattern. just a guess he would say that. Good guess, that is almost what I said and certainly what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Day 10 500mb pattern has a very nice look with the PV over Hudson Bay and Quebec, with an extension out toward Newfoundland. Ridging completely wrapping that PV from the west coast, up over the pole and back toward Scandanavia. Correct me if I'm reading it wrong but the look @ 500 shows potential for split flow and it would be easy for pac energy to slide in underneath right? The bagginess (that's a technical term..lol) sags all the way down to the tip of baja. Wouldn't that leave the door open for vorts to come into socal and traverse the desert sw and gulf coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It does, but I'm not sure how much of that is the Euro's SW bias, since that "baggy" area doesn't move for several days. But, the GFS and GFS ensembles also have hints of split flow, so I think the potential is there for a southern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Correct me if I'm reading it wrong but the look @ 500 shows potential for split flow and it would be easy for pac energy to slide in underneath right? The bagginess (that's a technical term..lol) sags all the way down to the tip of baja. Wouldn't that leave the door open for vorts to come into socal and traverse the desert sw and gulf coast? T he 500 configutation and strength of the vortex at 240 hrs would pretty much squash the weak southern stream shortwave. We probably need the eastern portion of the vortex to swing north while the western end swings south over the next couple of days beyond 240 hrs. That said, it probably will look different 12 hrs from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Correct me if I'm reading it wrong but the look @ 500 shows potential for split flow and it would be easy for pac energy to slide in underneath right? The bagginess (that's a technical term..lol) sags all the way down to the tip of baja. Wouldn't that leave the door open for vorts to come into socal and traverse the desert sw and gulf coast? I can remember Gordon Barnes talking about how some of our best snows came from storms that were around the 4 corners(pattern dependent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 500 configutation and strength of the vortex at 240 hrs would pretty much squash the weak southern stream shortwave. We probably need the eastern portion of the vortex to swing north while the western end swings south over the next couple of days beyond 240 hrs. That said, it probably will look different 12 hrs from now. Zero confidence at day 10 with the way things are going, I'm just checking to see if I understand what I'm looking at. I was thinking more about phasing potential. The general setup looked pretty good for the possibilty of "a miracle". One way to hit climo snow is to get lucky with split flow and well timed vorts. Just being a weenie I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I can remember Gordon Barnes talking about how some of our best snows came from storms that were around the 4 corners(pattern dependent) No doubt there but we need a -nao to help us. A 4 corners low during a Nino with a -nao keeps this forum from sleeping for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I can remember Gordon Barnes talking about how some of our best snows came from storms that were around the 4 corners(pattern dependent) ya but he died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ya but he died When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 WGAS anymore? We are like the gambler who thinks his next hand is going to be "the one". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 WGAS anymore? We are like the gambler who thinks his next hand is going to be "the one". "You got to know when to fold'em...know when to walk away...know when to run...you never count your cards when your sittin' at the table, there be time enough for countin' when the dealings done" -The Gambler - Kenny Rogers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 WGAS anymore? We are like the gambler who thinks his next hand is going to be "the one". I am despondent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I am despondent. I think you have to have some context here. There is a lot of middle ground between an awful pattern that is warm and snowless and an epic cold and snow pattern replete with KU's. So any upcoming pattern shift will probably be in the middle. We have had some really good patterns/periods that didnt produce huge snow storms. 1/25-2/10/1995, 2/20-3/10/2005. 11/20-12/15/2005. 2/5-2/28/2007. Sometimes they produced a few smaller events or flawed events. Sometimes they produced one larger event. Even the upcoming pattern prog is not an ideal configuration in the Atlantic and we don't really have a STJ. . I am fully on board at this point that if we get to say 2/20 and it warms up and we have nothing to show for it, it will be a massive failure. But I still have my expectations set low. Given how tough a time models have had this winter, I wouldn't get too attached to any discrete threat. I doubt any threat will be well modeled outside 4 days. I think we need to let the next 3 weeks play out and see where we are at then. Id like to get 5-8" more IMBY for the season. That could come in a lot of different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ya but he died Unless he died very recently, I think that he is alive and even still working. Open and click on the "Curriculum" tab... http://www.absolutealtitude.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Zero confidence at day 10 with the way things are going, I'm just checking to see if I understand what I'm looking at. I was thinking more about phasing potential. The general setup looked pretty good for the possibilty of "a miracle". One way to hit climo snow is to get lucky with split flow and well timed vorts. Just being a weenie I guess. Bob, the 240h euro ensemble mean to me is a little better and offers more potential for the southern strem not to get squashed. It's not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think you have to have some context here. There is a lot of middle ground between an awful pattern that is warm and snowless and an epic cold and snow pattern replete with KU's. So any upcoming pattern shift will probably be in the middle. We have had some really good patterns/periods that didnt produce huge snow storms. 1/25-2/10/1995, 2/20-3/10/2005. 11/20-12/15/2005. 2/5-2/28/2007. Sometimes they produced a few smaller events or flawed events. Sometimes they produced one larger event. Even the upcoming pattern prog is not an ideal configuration in the Atlantic and we don't really have a STJ. . I am fully on board at this point that if we get to say 2/20 and it warms up and we have nothing to show for it, it will be a massive failure. But I still have my expectations set low. Given how tough a time models have had this winter, I wouldn't get too attached to any discrete threat. I doubt any threat will be well modeled outside 4 days. I think we need to let the next 3 weeks play out and see where we are at then. Id like to get 5-8" more IMBY for the season. That could come in a lot of different ways. http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif These analogs continue to suggest the potential for modest snowfall if the pattern does come through- Here are the snowfalls we would gladly take within a week of those dates (DCA amounts): 2/13-14/70: 3.6" 2/9-10/80: 2.6" 1/21/07: 1.2" 1/26/61: 5.9"' 2/13/78: 1.3" 1/22/05: 3" 1/29-30/05: 2.3" Nothing blockbuster, but some wintry periods. Edited to add: Of course, if you go beyond a week on either side of the analog date, you get some more memorable storms. We are under no illusions that late January-mid February 1961 is about to repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think you have to have some context here. There is a lot of middle ground between an awful pattern that is warm and snowless and an epic cold and snow pattern replete with KU's. So any upcoming pattern shift will probably be in the middle. We have had some really good patterns/periods that didnt produce huge snow storms. 1/25-2/10/1995, 2/20-3/10/2005. 11/20-12/15/2005. 2/5-2/28/2007. Sometimes they produced a few smaller events or flawed events. Sometimes they produced one larger event. Even the upcoming pattern prog is not an ideal configuration in the Atlantic and we don't really have a STJ. . I am fully on board at this point that if we get to say 2/20 and it warms up and we have nothing to show for it, it will be a massive failure. But I still have my expectations set low. Given how tough a time models have had this winter, I wouldn't get too attached to any discrete threat. I doubt any threat will be well modeled outside 4 days. I think we need to let the next 3 weeks play out and see where we are at then. Id like to get 5-8" more IMBY for the season. That could come in a lot of different ways. Dude, why are you talking sound, rational logic to an irrational person? Every day I look at models and I want to gun down people afterwards. I feel like the person who knows it's a hook up going into it, but expecting a relationship...but yet I return for more.....expecting a relationship each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Dude, why are you talking sound, rational logic to an irrational person? Every day I look at models and I want to gun down people afterwards. I feel like the person who knows it's a hook up going into it, but expecting a relationship...but yet I return for more.....expecting a relationship each time. Can i give you some relationship advice, you are dating the wrong models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Look at the GFS at 117 hours...it's painful. Our low was supposed to be coming up...the High is in the perfect spot..there's even a psuedo 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I just want to cry, as usual every storm threat/ cold out break is 10-15 days away never to be realized.18z gfs hurts my heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I just want to cry, as usual every storm threat/ cold out break is 10-15 days away never to be realized.18z gfs hurts my heart. Then at the end of the run it doesn't really look all that cold. Even if it changes for a short time doesn't mean we'll get any snow. we are running out of 10-15 day periods and I see red hues showing up on some of the maple trees near my work. Always a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.