WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Talking about the cutoff - something weird happens between hours 54-60 on the 12Z NAM. At hr54 the only low over the CONUS is a 1021 "low" over central texas... Then at hr 60, it completely disappears, turns into a double-1025 high, and a new low pops up over Colorado - or is that the Texas low somehow retrogressing northwestward? Looks like a Rockies lee-side trough, perhaps turning into a true storm after 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 2nd day of an AO at or around -4.4 plus, the GFS forecast has it tanking much better than yesterday's forecast; that's good http://www.cpc.ncep....index_mrf.shtml also, sun has definitely gone back to sleep with a spike yesterday after it was way down, also good news for AO http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html don't know what it all means precisely wrt the sensible wx, of course, but generally both are excellent for us and a drastic change from the winter up to now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Interesting to begin to see the divergence between the NAM and GFS around hr 66, particularly in the SE quadrant... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county066.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam850mbTSLPp06066.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hoping for the GFS to have back to back model runs that are similar is liking hoping for back to back black jacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS on cue for another disaster run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS on cue for another disaster run.... another s/w in south-central Canada to wreck our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 gotta' give it to the GFS it has reverted back to looking like most of our previous 7 day threats this year now that we're 4-5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Of note: yesterday at 12z there was modeled to be a low off the NC coast.... today at 12z there is one modeled to be west of Chicago.... bravo good sir, bravo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Congrats South Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Of note: yesterday at 12z there was modeled to be a low off the NC coast.... today at 12z there is one modeled to be west of Chicago.... bravo good sir, bravo there hasn't been a system to come east and redevelope off the NC coast all year which still makes me wonder why HPC had that as their track yesterday but whatever; I guess it could change back to that but it would go against the seasonal trend we better hope that AO stays decently negative long enough to effect our sensible weather or we are doomed this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Cool when you loop the 500ht maps how the much longed for west coast ridge enters the US, drops a terd of a low into the southwest, and then basically proceeds to spread east and have the effect of putting us under a ridge again. It may never work out like that, but would anyone be surprised at anything this winter throws at us. The cherry on top will probably be a storm that drops 6-12" on Memphis, Atlanta, Charlotte, Norfolk and leaves us high and dry. And while I'm ranting, I'm with Ji. The NCEP site is the absolute worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Cool when you loop the 500ht maps how the much longed for west coast ridge enters the US, drops a terd of a low into the southwest, and then basically proceeds to spread east and have the effect of putting us under a ridge again. It may never work out like that, but would anyone be surprised at anything this winter throws at us. The cherry on top will probably be a storm that drops 6-12" on Memphis, Atlanta, Charlotte, Norfolk and leaves us high and dry. And while I'm ranting, I'm with Ji. The NCEP site is the absolute worst. I abhor their new website design there was no need to "fix" anything with the old site except to employ people and make work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 man that signal for the ~11th is banging hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Models are getting a bad wrap to some extent. Downstream solutions past 4 days are near impossible to get right when the pac is undergoing such a big change. Pattern isn't stable. Small variances = big differences and it's compounded the further out you go in a model run. Couple things to keep an eye on. Model forecasts are busting way low with the +pna and way high with the -ao right now. MJO forecast is cranking in phase 7 now. I know the models have done really bad with the mjo but a pretty strong signal is showing up. With the ao in -4 territory it may be hard to break it down. Kinda like what was happening in reverse back in Dec. Gotta hang strongly negative for a bit longer before we can call it "stable" but it is very encouraging right now. Flow is very fast too. Combine that with it trying to buckle upstream of us and I don't think models stand a chance and they shouldn't be expected too. Winter in some form of another seems to be on our doorstep. Maybe it can last more than a few days this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 man that signal for the ~11th is banging hard yes it is and considering neither of us had any real chance with the wekend storm, I guess we've lost nothing and some NE'ers continue to struggle with the difference between the concepts of snow climo vs. entitlement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 yes it is and considering neither of us had any real chance with the wekend storm, I guess we've lost nothing and some NE'ers continue to struggle with the difference between the concepts of snow climo vs. entitlement They are losing it over a storm that was always questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Models are getting a bad wrap to some extent. Downstream solutions past 4 days are near impossible to get right when the pac is undergoing such a big change. Pattern isn't stable. Small variances = big differences and it's compounded the further out you go in a model run. Couple things to keep an eye on. Model forecasts are busting way low with the +pna and way high with the -ao right now. MJO forecast is cranking in phase 7 now. I know the models have done really bad with the mjo but a pretty strong signal is showing up. With the ao in -4 territory it may be hard to break it down. Kinda like what was happening in reverse back in Dec. Gotta hang strongly negative for a bit longer before we can call it "stable" but it is very encouraging right now. Flow is very fast too. Combine that with it trying to buckle upstream of us and I don't think models stand a chance and they shouldn't be expected too. Winter in some form of another seems to be on our doorstep. Maybe it can last more than a few days this time. I think you are correct about the models, but at this point, something positive is going to have to happen for many of us to have a good attitude. Remember, everything that looks positive 10-15 days down the road is a modeled outcome as well. Just because it has been consistently modeled doesn't mean anything until something good actually happens. I hope you're right about winter coming. But my hope extends only to about day 2 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 man that signal for the ~11th is banging hard Grats Richmond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ^^ more falls after that, check out 348hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think you are correct about the models, but at this point, something positive is going to have to happen for many of us to have a good attitude. Remember, everything that looks positive 10-15 days down the road is a modeled outcome as well. Just because it has been consistently modeled doesn't mean anything until something good actually happens. I hope you're right about winter coming. But my hope extends only to about each model run at this point. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 fyp LOL. Yes, I don't mind believing a 2 or 3 day picture, but not past that. There is one good thing. If you don't like a model run, just wait for the next one. You may not like it either, but it won't look like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Grats Richmond! Every time you post a 200+ hr. operational/individual ens. member forecast map ITT, an angel is cast into the depths of hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The angel probably had it coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 yes it is and considering neither of us had any real chance with the wekend storm, I guess we've lost nothing and some NE'ers continue to struggle with the difference between the concepts of snow climo vs. entitlement Good point. The weekend "threat" was not really part of the upcoming pattern change, at least not in my eyes. It would have been a longshot/bonus. After Feb 5, things finally look on track index wise for fun and games here. This could last for a while. If NE'ers are melting down, it should make for some good reading later today. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Good point. The weekend "threat" was not really part of the upcoming pattern change, at least not in my eyes. It would have been a longshot/bonus. After Feb 5, things finally look on track index wise for fun and games here. This could last for a while. If NE'ers are melting down, it should make for some good reading later today. MDstorm Nor would it count towards BBs 20"-40" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Nor would it count towards BBs 20"-40" total. I hope so but I get a feeling that some of this will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 ^^ more falls after that, check out 348hr LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 should we be kind and say that it is simply a pattern reload? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Can anyone with better Euro access than Raleigh's site tell me what's happening around Day 7? It's a better look than the GFS for sure. Overrunning in there? Temps look warm, but not overwhelmingly so. Edit...should be Day 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Can anyone with better Euro access than Raleigh's site tell me what's happening around Day 7? It's a better look than the GFS for sure. Overrunning in there? Temps look warm, but not overwhelmingly so. Edit...should be Day 6-7. The lowest pressure at 156 hrs is over the great lakes so the flow is southerly until the secondary gets going.....it's too warm for snow at 850 or 2m through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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