MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 looks like it transfers the energy sooner this run to me... which would be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Pretty potent closed s/w at 135 in SE MO and moves to E IL at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 1000 mb low 50 miles east of Ocean City and we can get enough cold air....... this winter... geeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Looks like a WTF solution. Not too snowy thats for sure. Northern stream shears apart the storm as it tries to move offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Looks like a WTF solution. Not too snowy thats for sure. Northern stream shears apart the storm as it tries to move offshore. "pattern in transition" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 looks like a possible feedback issue at around 156 hrs notice that strong area of precip to the SE of the slp? something funny going on there, not that it would necessarily effect us even if it was a bad run so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 potent short wave at 189 hrs in central Canada coming down the pike EDIT: that fizzles like the rest of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 great...our best fantasy model entering a "great" pattern gives us almost zero snow over a 16 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 great...our best fantasy model entering a "great" pattern gives us almost zero snow over a 16 day period We all know even if it showed alot of snow, unless it was within 3 or 4 days from now we would all be saying oh its the GFS it is in fantasyland. I know it is frustrating but we will get more snow this winter just be patient. Watch the Euro in an hour and a half give us a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 great...our best fantasy model entering a "great" pattern gives us almost zero snow over a 16 day period That's probably a good thing considering its suppression bias in the long range and its lack of ability to recognize any small shortwaves. It has the frequent appearance of a 50/50 feature in the long range which is good and larger scale feature...hope it sticks. A potent shortwave 75/75 miles will never be seen on the coarse LR GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That's probably a good thing considering its suppression bias in the long range and its lack of able to recognize any small shortwaves. It has the frequent appearance of a 50/50 feature in the long range which is good and larger scale feature...hope it sticks. A potent shortwave 75/75 miles will never be seen on the coarse LR GFS. A much smarter guy explaining it alot better than i ever could. Thanks Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That's probably a good thing considering its suppression bias in the long range and its lack of able to recognize any small shortwaves. It has the frequent appearance of a 50/50 feature in the long range which is good and larger scale feature...hope it sticks. A potent shortwave 75/75 miles will never be seen on the coarse LR GFS. yes...I was kind of being facetious....I do worry though about this pattern not yielding much....fortunately our expectations are low...I think we'd all be happy with a 2" event at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 yes...I was kind of being facetious....I do worry though about this pattern not yielding much....fortunately our expectations are low...I think we'd all be happy with a 2" event at this point I am not BB, but fear not we will get a 4" event this winter. At least up in Baltimore we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 yes...I was kind of being facetious....I do worry though about this pattern not yielding much....fortunately our expectations are low...I think we'd all be happy with a 2" event at this point Being a Nina is always a worry because without a STJ its always an uphill battle there...but you have two potential cards up the sleeve to try and outperform typical Nina in February....aside from this anomalous Feb Nina pattern developing in the first place: 1. The amplitude of the western ridge...it gets so amped up that you could easily see some northern stream energy diuve a vortmax south of DC...even if its in the form of a 2/5/07 type clipper. 2. Pattern the west becomes split flow later in the period which is very important since it might allow several shortwaves to undercut the huge ridge still present in NW Canada at this time....eventually the whole thing will break down, but it breaks down from the bottom-up...which is nice...because that may allow for a solid week period (or even longer) of southern stream pacific shortwaves to undercut the big NW Canada ridge and that would obviously mean snow chances since cold air is still available...obviously nuances like 50/50 low and NAO will play a part, but that simple fact that the southern stream in that setup might simulate an El Nino STJ is a good thing. The trough does look to retrograde a bit during this time which opens up the possibility of a larger scale system on the east coast....hopefully that happens. Still a long ways to go though. As you said, it could easily fail. Its not easy in bad winters to cash in....but I think there will certainly be a chance. You were down 20 in the 2nd quarter...but you will have a possession or two in the final minute to try and hit a 3 pointer to tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You were down 20 in the 2nd quarter...but you will have a possession or two in the final minute to try and hit a 3 pointer to tie. That is all you can ask for in a game like that, and it looks like we are getting that chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hopefully the 1028MB High pressure over TX and AR will move out at some point. On this run it is crushing all the SRN stream shortwaves like it's a game of whackamole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah yeah, its teh GGEM... but it looks interesting enough at 144 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah yeah, its teh GGEM... but it looks interesting enough at 144 -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg euro is a no go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 euro is a no go yeah... Will was saying there basically is no point of followng the solutions with them basically changing every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 As far as the Saturday Night deal, The EC ensembles still have a low, but it's a massive 1018mb contour, meaning it's weak and there must be a lot of spread between the members...likely owing to whether or not it even happens. Probably some members looking like the euro op. If you take it verbatim, it does seem like it would give you some overrunning mixed precip. I'm sure it will change again, but that's what it shows. That big ridge folding over into western Canada seems to be the issue on this run, and it may very well get squashed. As far as the longer range, I think it's been broken down pretty well by Will and we touched on this in our forum. The trough retros and heights lower out west a bit, giving the chance of a s/w or two getting ejected out of the southwest, potentially. At the same time, ridging tries to punch into Greenland, so you may have some confluence over eastern Quebec. Whether anything happens, it's just too early to say right now, but some of the larger key players are there in some form, so that's about all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The differences from run to run and model to model are extrodinary on how they want to handle the cutoff in the South West. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 After seeing the rest of 00z, my first tiny bit of optimism has gone bleah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 After seeing the rest of 00z, my first tiny bit of optimism has gone bleah. The 00Z GFS op is very close to a nice hit for late next week. Of course its ensemble members are all over the place so who knows what we will end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 At the very least we had/have expectations properly calibrated for this upcoming weekend, last night's runs left folks pretty despondent as I scroll through the OH/GV, Philly, NY, and NE subforums. Misery/company and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Everyone needs to calm down. We'll get some frozen this weekend. My words have already been marked, so it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Everyone needs to calm down. We'll get some frozen this weekend. My words have already been marked, so it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 the 6z GFS was an absolute train wreck.... these wild 1000 mile shifts are getting out of hand...... features just disappear and then re-appear at the drop of a hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Talking about the cutoff - something weird happens between hours 54-60 on the 12Z NAM. At hr54 the only low over the CONUS is a 1021 "low" over central texas... Then at hr 60, it completely disappears, turns into a double-1025 high, and a new low pops up over Colorado - or is that the Texas low somehow retrogressing northwestward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 the 6z GFS was an absolute train wreck.... these wild 1000 mile shifts are getting out of hand...... features just disappear and then re-appear at the drop of a hat The pattern on both the 00z GFS and 6z GFS are quite good in the LR, that might be more important than details post-120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Thursday looks dry... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam850mbTSLPp06072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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