MillzPirate Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The 18Z GFS seems to be on 'roids from Feb 5 onward. What is that now at hr 312? A snow typhoon..... February could be fun folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Why wouldn't the secondary develop on the coast rather than in the Piedmont? and of course this is nothing like the 12Z run. Or like its last 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 probably around the same time you realize hitting refresh every 2 seconds to see a 162 hour forecast for the 18z GFS is an utter disaster...j/k I don't know why you would be kidding with JI....you're absolutely correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This says all that any of us weenie amatuers need to know. AFTN MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE CONTINUES UNDERMINE ANY ALREADY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RELIABLE SOLUTION OVER MUCH OF CONUS...... THE VERY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY AND A GREAT WEATHER AND SOCIAL POTENTIAL IMPACT IN WHATEVER SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT WARRANTS A WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECON WHICH WILL BE FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 man, that's an absolute bomb for NE, albeit post 177hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lol...the 18Z GFS is as cruel as they come. Not that it will come true. But if it did, the mood around here would be pretty foul. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This says all that any of us weenie amatuers need to know. AFTN MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE CONTINUES UNDERMINE ANY ALREADY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RELIABLE SOLUTION OVER MUCH OF CONUS...... THE VERY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY AND A GREAT WEATHER AND SOCIAL POTENTIAL IMPACT IN WHATEVER SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT WARRANTS A WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECON WHICH WILL BE FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK it's time for the MA weenies to start to work their magic and find a way to keep the AO dropping over the next 5 days (or more) I'll leave it to you and your consciences to determine the best method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 A snow typhoon..... February could be fun folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 it's time for the MA weenies to start to work their magic and find a way to keep the AO dropping over the next 5 days (or more) I'll leave it to you and your consciences to determine the best method I'll try to think of something good. Meanwhile, I think I'll trust no model more than about 3 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro and gfs agree on 2 things right now and I don't mind either of them. Miller B on tap for the end of the week and a -nao beyond that. Wouldn't take much for the weekend storm to be our biggest event of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The 18Z GFS seems to be on 'roids from Feb 5 onward. What is that now at hr 312? Let's call it the Yucatan Express since that's where it appears to come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 H5 heights don't fall fast enough along the coast. If SE ridging was weaker, it would form much further east. How often does a transfer of energy take place like that? I would think it is not too often, at least in my memory. If anything, they occur too far east or north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 How often does a transfer of energy take place like that? I would think it is not too often, at least in my memory. If anything, they occur too far east or north of us. Rarely, It is hard to get a low in the Piedmont. But the model actually shows the low just east of Raleigh where cad isn't quite as strong. Edit: it happened 12/16/2005 and 3/13/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'll try to think of something good. Meanwhile, I think I'll trust no model more than about 3 days in advance. Yup. Or else lots of hand wringing around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This says all that any of us weenie amatuers need to know. AFTN MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE CONTINUES UNDERMINE ANY ALREADY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RELIABLE SOLUTION OVER MUCH OF CONUS...... THE VERY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY AND A GREAT WEATHER AND SOCIAL POTENTIAL IMPACT IN WHATEVER SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT WARRANTS A WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECON WHICH WILL BE FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK I just don't see this storm being modeled to the point that it even looks like some huge winter storm... Is this really necessary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I just don't see this storm being modeled to the point that it even looks like some huge winter storm... Is this really necessary? 12Z Euro had quite a storm to our north that would probably justify that concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I just don't see this storm being modeled to the point that it even looks like some huge winter storm... Is this really necessary? I think that's the point. With wild swings within models and the differences between models, they must feel that they need better data to try and help resolve those issues. And to your thought, perhaps they do see the potential of this being a major winter storm for someone, thus the need to be able to put out a forecast with as much advance lead time as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well the 18z ensemble certainly looks better... Colder and juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well the 18z ensemble certainly looks better... Colder and juicier how much colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hopefully the tide turns in our favor soon. There is alot in the air about the 10-15 of February possible snow threat. While we have been getting screwed all winter long. Now it is our time to shine. I would not be such a weenie this year if it was not for our crappy winter. I know it's a long ways out. I am getting a little curious about next years winter. I will say it again, its a long ways out, does anyone have an opinion on winter 2012-2013? I have read and I am sure others have on a possible weak-mod El Nino. If I annoy anyone, my bad! You might want to take that type of question to another or a new thread. It doesn't fit in here and may actually serve to derail the discussion. Not to mention it is far too early to even be looking that far ahead. We still have the rest of THIS winter, spring, summer, AND fall to get through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Euro and gfs agree on 2 things right now and I don't mind either of them. Miller B on tap for the end of the week and a -nao beyond that. Wouldn't take much for the weekend storm to be our biggest event of the winter. It's a negative NAO but still is not what you usually want as the heights near nova scotia and just to its east are high so we have trouble getting confluence though at such long time ranges that's probably not terribly important. We also would do better with a southern stream. Next weekend is interesting as it might offer a period of snow to ice prior to a changeover. Even if the models don't have the details right, there is lots of work to do to get a decent snowstorm out of it. Still, we haven't had a decent snow. I'm not a fan of miller b unless the 500h goes to our south. But beggars can't be choosy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 how much colder? DC stays <0c 850 for the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 DC stays <0c 850 for the duration The mean temps in this case are pretty meaningless. Look at the individual members. They show quite a few lows well to our north and west with a couple that give us mostly snow and then a few that are so suppressed that they are super cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 KMLWX,, my bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The mean temps in this case are pretty meaningless. Look at the individual members. They show quite a few lows well to our north and west with a couple that give us mostly snow and then a few that are so suppressed that they are super cold. Ewww to some of those members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 KMLWX,, my bad.. Oh, I mean I'm not upset but I mean you see where I'm coming from right? This winter isn't even over yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It's a negative NAO but still is not what you usually want as the heights near nova scotia and just to its east are high so we have trouble getting confluence though at such long time ranges that's probably not terribly important. We also would do better with a southern stream. Next weekend is interesting as it might offer a period of snow to ice prior to a changeover. Even if the models don't have the details right, there is lots of work to do to get a decent snowstorm out of it. Still, we haven't had a decent snow. I'm not a fan of miller b unless the 500h goes to our south. But beggars can't be choosy. Totally agree on both points. Not an ideal -nao at all but it some time away so we'll see if it materializes at all. Seeing heights build anywhere in that region is a big plus considering where we've been so far. I'm used to miller b's being duds around here. Gotta wonder what we can squeeze out of the front end. HP to the n&w does show some promise and I think we stand an ok chance at some wintery precip before the primary gets to our n&w. Best case (imo) would be a couple inches of snow with some ice on the front, then dryslotted after 850's get warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 00z GFS the same through 96 and then much more supressed. Itslowed down the kicker S/W coming into the PACNW day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 00z GFS the same through 96 and then much more supressed. Itslowed down the kicker S/W coming into the PACNW day 4 wouldn't mind seeing that bowling ball at 120 hrs just moving due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 wouldn't mind seeing that bowling ball at 120 hrs just moving due east A 552dm isn't going to cut, it is also not going to bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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