Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nope. This thread is for actual threats, not weenie fantasies, especially when the AO will likely be positive again. how is that even a weenie fantasy...the model shows a warm rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 how is that even a weenie fantasy...the model shows a warm rainstorm Ok, maybe smile was the wrong word. I was referring to the fact that a storm that pretty in late February would potentially be a huge rainstorm. Maybe "shake your head" should have been said instead of smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I realize this is ~10 days out but it's got to make you smile Not many of us like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like rainstorms. So looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Why do people talk about events at 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Dear Models, If you're gonna tease it, then you better please it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm from Michigan but I'm currently staying in the greater DC area for a fast week. If anything the lack of a true winter was visible like mad while driving through Ohio and PA. At most an inch graced the northern side of the hills. I'm not going to lie I was wishful at the possibility of weekend winter storm rolling up the coast. Needless to say that it looks like I'm **** out of luck. FTW looks like a few flakes at some point this weekend with a powerful arctic front. As touristy as this seems I want a photo of the cheesy DC monuments with a ripping snow background. FWIW...this sub forum is one of the best. I frequent here allot to check the discos for pattern hints. First post is a charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like truncation between 192-204 destroyed what would of been a nice snowstorm....some blocking and MJO might help us next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like truncation between 192-204 destroyed what would of been a nice snowstorm....some blocking and MJO might help us next weekend? Give it up dude. Get used to being in the shadow of the mountain top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Give it up dude. Get used to being in the shadow of the mountain top. PD 2.5 dude...we are due for a PD event...its been 9 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 FWIW, 12z CMC going towards big slow moving coastal late next week...Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 FWIW, 12z CMC going towards big slow moving coastal late next week...Hmm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Overall the gfs isn't attractive verbatim but I like some of what I see. It really wants to hold a fairly decent hp right over greenland. There is some amplification too. It's probably worth watching the evolution of the energy coming out of the sw next week. doesn't look like it's going to close off as it exits the mountains and cut. imo- i see some potential for overruning as the energy slides by to our south. long way away but something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lol Hey, its a model, albeit terrible, but might as well talk about it, what else do we have? Pitchers and catchers report yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro coming down the pipe with what could be a monster also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro coming down the pipe with what could be a monster also Euro has been straight up MONEY at Day 10 lately. PD3...book it. P.S. +AO, +NAO, -PNA absolutely screams KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro has been straight up MONEY at Day 10 lately. PD3...book it. haven't had a good euro fantasy storm in a while it seems....let's keep it around until day 4...then lose it to the south...SE snowstorm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it's a really strange setup....not very conducive to a big storm or any storm for that matter As I said in my "PS", we haven't had many (any?) KU's with a +AO, +NAO and -PNA like the Euro is advertising at the same time. Doubt we've even had too many 4"+ events. I think Wes's chart has the details for DCA on that one. Map shows -4 - -6 850s, but I assume that means boundary layer temps are in the low 40s? Given our recent trends... Or precip doesn't even reach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it's a really strange setup....not very conducive to a big storm or any storm for that matter Maybe at the meta-level, but the trough/ridge set up from day 6 onwards look more reasonable than most others this winter, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sorry ladies and gentlemen, but winter will be over after this minor cold front disturbance rolls through the Northern Va area. AO we can kiss goodbye and the NAO as they are both going to scream positive for a hot minute. By the time the AO/NAO will be in sync, spring will be here. I have lived in Virginia long enough to know that winter is done. If we get a real snowstorm then I will eat my words and apologize. Winter 2012-2013, I hope we all get paid back for the last 2 winters. 2 winters in a row with below avg snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Brad, why do you think the ao/nao are going to "scream positive" and what analysis have you done to feel comfortable in saying that they won't cooperate before it's too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sorry ladies and gentlemen, but winter will be over after this minor cold front disturbance rolls through the Northern Va area. AO we can kiss goodbye and the NAO as they are both going to scream positive for a hot minute. By the time the AO/NAO will be in sync, spring will be here. I have lived in Virginia long enough to know that winter is done. If we get a real snowstorm then I will eat my words and apologize. Winter 2012-2013, I hope we all get paid back for the last 2 winters. 2 winters in a row with below avg snow. irerotatt? And further, weroetaljfera? And what about ktoguaosfgoauteat? I was thinking aieothaognaoehtowhtn. But you may be right about tah'aewrthaweotaghaowet. Although, I'm not so sure because thaeworuoathaoiewta. Thoughts? I'll get a drink and wait for your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? I thought we were not allowed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? It's hard to get excited about it when from run to run it will go from a cutter, to suppressed, to fantasy storm. Looking at the 500's in that time frame also doesn't instill much confidence in a good outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? If there is a time range that something might have a chance it would be in the 180 to 216 hour range as that's when the ens mean doesn't look awful like it does by the end of the run when the epo goes strongly positive. The pattern basically again a bad one by 240 hours though the details on the models will be wrong so I guess there is always hope since they have been pretty bad lately. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? Nice to look at and would be sweet if just one time it worked out. I'm holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS still threatening PD3 pre truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nobody mentioned the setup on the 6z GFS before awful truncation? http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Somebody just did Randy. Kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Haha I really wish everyone could see the control run of the ecmwf over on accupro. It has what appears to be a 975 BECS off ocean city next saturday with 1.9 qpf and -6? 850's... Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.