Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 4:26 AM, MillzPirate said: Not punting on the weekend yet the original weekend idea is pretty much entirely done imo.. timing is off, it's got too far to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 4:32 AM, Ian said: the original weekend idea is pretty much entirely done imo.. timing is off, it's got too far to come back I'm not talking abt the gom idea. I mean the secondary that tries to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 4:30 AM, MillzPirate said: I'm not familiar with this setup in the dc area, but we tend to have some luck from these pop up coastals in nc... Seems the geographic layout of the Delmarva wouldn't be as conducive to snowfall from such a system though The Delmarva often receives heavy snowfalls that miss us to the east, more so in some seasons than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 4:33 AM, MillzPirate said: I'm not talking abt the gom idea. I mean the secondary that tries to form. plenty of time but it doesnt look to have a whole lot of upswing potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Going to be a rainy late next week... no H's in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 4:36 AM, yoda said: Going to be a rainy late next week... no H's in Canada gfs moving toward the euro. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 4:38 AM, Ian said: gfs moving toward the euro. meh. I wouldn't mind some thunderstorms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 3 long range cutters on the gfs. sssswweeeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Jeez. Most recent GFS and Euro combo is discouraging. My confidence has taken a sizeable hit. It seemed logical to believe that a modest winter pattern was in our future but the logic appears inherently flawed at this point. I keep thinking back to some of lwx's and hps's discos through the years. When in a drought it's best to forecast more drought and vice versa. We've been chasing a good pattern since the beginning of Nov now. I'm an optimist by nature but based on what appears to be a less than favorable 1st half of Feb on tap, it's probably best to ease up on the expectations of having a condensed and productive winter pattern in these parts. No reason to stop rooting for well timed decent event though. Might not be fun up until or even after such an event but it would still be fun tracking and enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Looks like the jma is gonna stay steadfast in its gulf low idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LOL at the 90h ECMWF. This thing is getting close folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Can you elaborate please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:14 AM, bhamwx205 said: Can you elaborate please... Positive to neutral trough of 528dm swings into VA. If this amplified a little more, it would be a significant East coast snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Please continue the pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:17 AM, MillzPirate said: Please continue the pbp The trough ends up going negative over New England. Additional snow falls across MD / VA / DE with an inverted trough in response to the trough. This is soo close guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:18 AM, zwyts said: ....I just saw the euro All this says to me is that it is way too early to suggest this is totaling missing us. That is one helluva trough coming down that partially to fully phases with the southern stream wave. I would imagine too that whatever happens with this storm will have pretty big repercussions for the next wave next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 What about the deep south .....nothing im assuming. I saw the story 500mlb map but can't see surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:24 AM, bhamwx205 said: What about the deep south .....nothing im assuming. I saw the story 500mlb map but can't see surface Could be some light snow across Dixie into the piedmont of NC on this run at a quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Very interesting... HM or Zwyts... is it the EURO close to what the NAM was showing at 84 on its h5 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Wow, just got a chance to look at the maps... That's a whisker shy of blowing up... We're not lucky enough to get that to phase sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:32 AM, yoda said: Very interesting... HM or Zwyts... is it the EURO close to what the NAM was showing at 84 on its h5 map? I would say they're not similar and that the ECMWF is better looking at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Next week a giant UK Block goes up (not ideal --- located along 20W) with a flat PNA ridge and W-C US trough. All the polar heights retreat so it gets warmer. Looks like a typical La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:39 AM, HM said: I would say they're not similar and that the ECMWF is better looking at 84h. Okies... aren't inverted troughs hard to predict? And what type of QPF, I am guessing light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:39 AM, HM said: I would say they're not similar and that the ECMWF is better looking at 84h. Comparing the gfs and the euro..Euro has a more defined piece of southern stream energy, while the gfs pretty much shears it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 5:09 AM, Bob Chill said: Jeez. Most recent GFS and Euro combo is discouraging. My confidence has taken a sizeable hit. It seemed logical to believe that a modest winter pattern was in our future but the logic appears inherently flawed at this point. I keep thinking back to some of lwx's and hps's discos through the years. When in a drought it's best to forecast more drought and vice versa. We've been chasing a good pattern since the beginning of Nov now. I'm an optimist by nature but based on what appears to be a less than favorable 1st half of Feb on tap, it's probably best to ease up on the expectations of having a condensed and productive winter pattern in these parts. No reason to stop rooting for well timed decent event though. Might not be fun up until or even after such an event but it would still be fun tracking and enjoying it. I think it is logical to continue to chase a modest winter pattern. We seem to be in one right now. It's not brutal cold by any means, but at least we are getting chances for small stuff. What would be illogical, IMO, would be to put faith in model solutions past about 72-96 hours. The euro especially seems like a pancake lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 6:44 AM, HM said: Next week a giant UK Block goes up (not ideal --- located along 20W) with a flat PNA ridge and W-C US trough. All the polar heights retreat so it gets warmer. Looks like a typical La Nina pattern. good, that will hopefully put an end to this God awful winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The look on the ensembles the last few days haven't been great in the mid and long range. They have been generally setting up the PV around Greenland with the ridging setting up shop off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. Looks seasonal to probably slightly above temp wise for our local. The MJO is argueing otherwise with it going through sectors 8 and 1 with decent amplitude. http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast.php Don't know how much stock I would put into these because the verifications drop off substantially after around day 5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z GFS at 117 looks so much like this winter... too bad its going to be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 On 2/8/2012 at 4:17 PM, yoda said: 12z GFS at 117 looks so much like this winter... too bad its going to be rain That got sheared out quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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