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February storm threat discussion


Ellinwood

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Statistically that makes no sense. You would expect just as many anomolies on the plus side as you would on the minus side. Music has nothing to do with it.

Now if you said couple this year with 09-10, that makes sense. But you can't say that a crappy winter is an anomoly AND that it happens frequently. If that were the case, it wouldn't be an anomoly, but would be the normal.

lol.

It's still an anomaly. You figure you have massive winters like 09-10 and then average winters and then slightly below avg winters and then a few near shutouts like this one...it's an anomaly...

Come on man...I know we are all getting antsy with this winter but you've been pretty "agitated" (wrong word). I seem to remember you as a much calmer and down to Earth poster in the past...just relax and let nature happen.

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This winter has been particularly painful for the vast majority of snow weenies from coast to coast.

This map looks more like mid Nov or mid Apr. Feb 2nd? blech! Put a dec-jan temp anom map next to this and it will make you sick enough to call in for work.

That is probably the most amazing thing about this winter. It's not just us.

I'll bet that March/April/May will be just awful.

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That is probably the most amazing thing about this winter. It's not just us.

I'll bet that March/April/May will be just awful.

One thing that can be gleaned is there is no snow on the ground in the lake effect areas and that is a stark example of having almost no polar or even cold canadian air coming down into the US. I wonder how may winters had bare ground around lake erie and ontario on Feb 2nd?

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lol.

It's still an anomaly. You figure you have massive winters like 09-10 and then average winters and then slightly below avg winters and then a few near shutouts like this one...it's an anomaly...

Come on man...I know we are all getting antsy with this winter but you've been pretty "agitated" (wrong word). I seem to remember you as a much calmer and down to Earth poster in the past...just relax and let nature happen.

I'm losing it man!!! :wacko:

Nah, sorry if it came across that way. An average by definition would say that we average so and so. But in reality, if a sucky winter happens almost without exception, then the "real" average would be a sucky winter. I've always thought that the median is a much better statistic to use. I wonder what our median is for the past 10 winters. I know my stats over here would be different from you guys, but your stats would still give a decent picture. I'm sure that someone has it.

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Exactly and it sucks. Feast or famine is becoming tiresome. Coastal or will (can't remember who) posted some details about why this is happening but I don't remember what was said.

Growing up in the 70's & 80's we pretty much expected some decent cold and snow every year and we were right more often that not. Now it's the other way around. I would guess it's part of some big long term cycle or oscillation. If it's a permanent "new normal" then I'm going end up spending less and less time with this hobby and focus on other things.

The patterns have changed. It is just my dumb azz obeservation and have nothing to back it up but storm tracks all year long are different. This is something I've noticed ever since the summer of 99 when dry weather would start to set in more often during MJJA. Not ready to point a finger at GW or anything but, yes, things are different.

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I'm losing it man!!! :wacko:

Nah, sorry if it came across that way. An average by definition would say that we average so and so. But in reality, if a sucky winter happens almost without exception, then the "real" average would be a sucky winter. I've always thought that the median is a much better statistic to use. I wonder what our median is for the past 10 winters. I know my stats over here would be different from you guys, but your stats would still give a decent picture. I'm sure that someone has it.

Even doing 20 winters there are only 4 above average. A few are not that far off but still below. (for full disclosure the ten prior to those 20 had six above average)

The median for 10 years is 11.3

The median for 20 years is 10.9

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Exactly and it sucks. Feast or famine is becoming tiresome. Coastal or will (can't remember who) posted some details about why this is happening but I don't remember what was said.

Growing up in the 70's & 80's we pretty much expected some decent cold and snow every year and we were right more often that not. Now it's the other way around. I would guess it's part of some big long term cycle or oscillation. If it's a permanent "new normal" then I'm going end up spending less and less time with this hobby and focus on other things.

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I'm losing it man!!! :wacko:

Nah, sorry if it came across that way. An average by definition would say that we average so and so. But in reality, if a sucky winter happens almost without exception, then the "real" average would be a sucky winter. I've always thought that the median is a much better statistic to use. I wonder what our median is for the past 10 winters. I know my stats over here would be different from you guys, but your stats would still give a decent picture. I'm sure that someone has it.

Here are some rough estimates of my totals starting with 01-02.

5"

60"

30" (~14" around 12/5-6 and about a foot total from a few late Jan storms)

20"

23" (15" in Feb 2006)

18" (lots of nickle and diming during the cold period)

11"

10"

85"

25" (14" from the psuhoffman MECS)

Looks like a median of 21.5". Not bad.

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A winter with 20" of snow isn't bad at all. Last year, I think I totaled up about 22". I was disappointed by a couple of storms last year, but overall it wasn't awful. It's years like this one, and like 08-09 that drive me nuts. Remember that in 08-09, over here, we got flurries from the March storm. At least it was a fairly cold winter. This one is the worst I can remember since 90-91. For some reason, I can't really remember 2001-2002, which has been thrown around this year as a bad one.

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Every morning, I come here thinking maybe..just maybe our fortunes have changed with fresh model runs. Then I see the thread page count before I open it and already know its bad news because it's on the same ****ing page as last night.

Almost time to punt? No, not just this weekend, but the whole damn thing. Getting close.

While I have nothing of substance to add and follow the threads here with the hope some miracle will lead to some sense of winter, your comments here represent my feelings over the last several weeks. None the less, I've learned a tremendous amount from everyone here over the past several years and will be eternally grateful for the ongoing education. Between this forum and Eastern Weather before, I've read and enjoyed the banter for 8 or 9 years, to include while living in Germany, Thailand and Afghanistan during the same period. Keep up the great work.... will quietly exit now and continue to marvel at everyone's passion for the weather, which I share...

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While I have nothing of substance to add and follow the threads here with the hope some miracle will lead to some sense of winter, your comments here represent my feelings over the last several weeks. None the less, I've learned a tremendous amount from everyone here over the past several years and will be eternally grateful for the ongoing education. Between this forum and Eastern Weather before, I've read and enjoyed the banter for 8 or 9 years, to include while living in Germany, Thailand and Afghanistan during the same period. Keep up the great work.... will quietly exit now and continue to marvel at everyone's passion for the weather, which I share...

well said! I agree! Thanks to all who post here, especially the Mets and for those who take more than 2 seconds to think when they see something on a model. The insight and information help tremendously and I have learned a ton!

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