showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Brazilian shows a close shave. Nearly waxes us. I guess the in me will ride that one then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That dumb ground hog should have been put out of his misery a long time ago. Don't they drive cars in Punxsutawney? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 When none of the models show snow there is always the old desperate standby of checking each ensemble member. Well, that isn't even working either as none show anything for this weekend. lesson to wxUSAF...dont trust the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, Justin Berk is calling for snow still..So you guys have that going for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Every morning, I come here thinking maybe..just maybe our fortunes have changed with fresh model runs. Then I see the thread page count before I open it and already know its bad news because it's on the same ****ing page as last night. Almost time to punt? No, not just this weekend, but the whole damn thing. Getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Every morning, I come here thinking maybe..just maybe our fortunes have changed with fresh model runs. Then I see the thread page count before I open it and already know its bad news because it's on the same ****ing page as last night. Almost time to punt? No, not just this weekend, but the whole damn thing. Getting close. You'd think sooner or later that something would have to go our way. It seems like it NEVER does. That blows any statistical study out of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You know it is bad when North Africa is getting more snow than we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You'd think sooner or later that something would have to go our way. It seems like it NEVER does. That blows any statistical study out of the water. At the core, it seems like our feast or famine winters are mostly to blame. Pretty frustrating. It's been a while since we've had a "climo" winter around here. We used to have plenty. Half dozen normal events and a mix of cold/warm/normal periods throughout the season. We've had alot more "big" storms the last 10-12 years or so but much less "normal" stuff. I'm sure some of the snow stats guys on here can either confirm or debunk that statement but I'm pretty sure I'm right. I'd much prefer a "climo" type of winter for once. I'd gladly give up the big storm in exchange for some normalcy and sanity. I'm probably speaking for most of the forum here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, Justin Berk is calling for snow still..So you guys have that going for you... Also, there is a guy named Paul Harris who posts to the MAWS (Mid-Atlantic Weather Service) General List, who is forecasting 12-30 inches of snow here this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbchandler Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What institution is he in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What institution is he in? BBU....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 BBU....... Took me a sec but I lold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What institution is he in? I'm not sure where he lives, but he subscribes to the acorn theory of winter forecasting. Last September, he posted the following: "The '12/'13 winter still looks historical. There are a crop of acorns for next year that are already 3-5 times the normal size. I've never seen this in 25 years. It could mean an historical October ice/snow event for the Mid-Atlantic or an historical early freeze in September or even something that would make snowmadeggen look like a cub scout storm in the winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro ens from last night are toasty into mid Feb. This winter is groundhog day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You'd think sooner or later that something would have to go our way. It seems like it NEVER does. That blows any statistical study out of the water. Anomalies can and do happen. We have bad winters in DC - they are pretty frequent. Weenies will 9 out of 10 times be disheartened. Just face the music. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z NAM has 850 0c line south of us for the weekend... but the precip follows and we get flurries up here... prob rain down south. 0c 2M line is nearbyish... we are prob 35 to 40 rough guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro ens from last night are toasty into mid Feb. This winter is groundhog day. LC says their wrong. Larry Cosgrove..not Lauren Conrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 LC says their wrong. Larry Cosgrove..not Lauren Conrad i had to look up lauren conrad no offense to long range forecasters but im willing to generally let persistence let me down at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z NAM has 850 0c line south of us for the weekend... but the precip follows and we get flurries up here... prob rain down south. 0c 2M line is nearbyish... we are prob 35 to 40 rough guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anomalies can and do happen. We have bad winters in DC - they are pretty frequent. Weenies will 9 out of 10 times be disheartened. Just face the music. Statistically that makes no sense. You would expect just as many anomolies on the plus side as you would on the minus side. Music has nothing to do with it. Now if you said couple this year with 09-10, that makes sense. But you can't say that a crappy winter is an anomoly AND that it happens frequently. If that were the case, it wouldn't be an anomoly, but would be the normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weird... it had it down by the Mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weird... it had it down by the Mason Dixon line wouldnt that be the max in the 6 hr period on that map? i never use them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Statistically that makes no sense. You would expect just as many anomolies on the plus side as you would on the minus side. Music has nothing to do with it. Now if you said couple this year with 09-10, that makes sense. But you can't say that a crappy winter is an anomoly AND that it happens frequently. If that were the case, it wouldn't be an anomoly, but would be the normal. 8 of the last 10 winters were below avg in DC with two giant ones. It's fairly clear we should expect bad winters more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You'd think sooner or later that something would have to go our way. It seems like it NEVER does. That blows any statistical study out of the water. Won't be long now before we hear about sun angle and how snow can't stick, etc. It's about over my friend. Sooner we realize it and stop hoping, the better. But we can't control ourselves. I checked the DGEX this morning. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 LC says their wrong. Larry Cosgrove..not Lauren Conrad lol...Larry Consgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You knew what she looked at, you just wanted another look i had to look up lauren conrad no offense to long range forecasters but im willing to generally let persistence let me down at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 8 of the last 10 winters were below avg in DC with two giant ones. It's fairly clear we should expect bad winters more often. Exactly and it sucks. Feast or famine is becoming tiresome. Coastal or will (can't remember who) posted some details about why this is happening but I don't remember what was said. Growing up in the 70's & 80's we pretty much expected some decent cold and snow every year and we were right more often that not. Now it's the other way around. I would guess it's part of some big long term cycle or oscillation. If it's a permanent "new normal" then I'm going end up spending less and less time with this hobby and focus on other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This winter has been particularly painful for the vast majority of snow weenies from coast to coast. This map looks more like mid Nov or mid Apr. Feb 2nd? blech! Put a dec-jan temp anom map next to this and it will make you sick enough to call in for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z might not end up too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You knew what she looked at, you just wanted another look ha, actually didnt but not bad for sure.. Exactly and it sucks. Feast or famine is becoming tiresome. Coastal or will (can't remember who) posted some details about why this is happening but I don't remember what was said. Growing up in the 70's & 80's we pretty much expected some decent cold and snow every year and we were right more often that not. Now it's the other way around. I would guess it's part of some big long term cycle or oscillation. If it's a permanent "new normal" then I'm going end up spending less and less time with this hobby and focus on other things. I'm not exactly sure why tho I'd say if nothing else we'er losing more and more on the margins. Storms that would be 1-2" end up a dusting because of marginal temps etc. We don't generally get as much early or late as we used to either. Little doubt at least some of it is a warming trend over time. Plus +NAO winters have been more common in recent times I believe. We have seemed to get more k/u events in the last decade+ than prior tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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