Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Figured we should get a new thread to discuss our changes for next month... there are some hints of the pattern becoming more favorable for cold/snow after the start of the month via a +PNA and -EPO signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 If anyone is on Twitter - am19psu (green/red tagger from the Philly region) tweets daily about patterns, threats, etc. @AmWx_Adam Check him out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Thought this was a severe threat thread and we know how those turn out. Any change in the pattern rolling into Feb will be positive news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Time is slowly running out. We still have a month and some change. In my area this has basically been a snowless winter. Either we are building towards a big event or at least a couple more smaller events. I have had about 1"in of snow. Making this one of the worst winters since the 97/98 strong El Nino. This years is a La Nina and I know we have had crappy La Ninas before. Still keeping the high hopes but my hopes are slowly running out. Old Man Winter if you hear me, make it "SNOW" please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Overnight model runs look terrible, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'm about to punch in my 2.7 inches of snow and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Overnight model runs look terrible, BTW. Terrible? Gotta put the weenie glasses on! 0z and 6z gfs amp up the ridge out west and dig a trough in the east. Sure all the energy passes to the north and it's all northern stream with nothing sliding under the ridge out west but that's ok. Plenty of time for a h5 vort on steriods to dig down and visit RIC on the way off the coast. Euro hangs energy back in the SW (a known bias) so ridging out in front gets pumped up a bit and the trough doesn't dig along the ec. Remove the sw energy and poof, +pna with snow threats. See? Not that bad unless you're a met or a realist of which I am neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Terrible? Gotta put the weenie glasses on! 0z and 6z gfs amp up the ridge out west and dig a trough in the east. Sure all the energy passes to the north and it's all northern stream with nothing sliding under the ridge out west but that's ok. Plenty of time for a h5 vort on steriods to dig down and visit RIC on the way off the coast. Euro hangs energy back in the SW (a known bias) so ridging out in front gets pumped up a bit and the trough doesn't dig along the ec. Remove the sw energy and poof, +pna with snow threats. See? Not that bad unless you're a met or a realist of which I am neither. Well, I neglected to mention the Super Bowl weekend Miller B that the 6z GFS shows might give us 1-3". I think the Ravens loss sucked all the optimism out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It is just so depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Intense (if unlikely and peculiar) cutter on 12zGFS hr228... (Hey, what else is there to talk about....?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 ...Followed by miller B at 300hrs... Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Intense (if unlikely and peculiar) cutter on 12zGFS hr228... (Hey, what else is there to talk about....?) That's not a cutter at all. It's a clipper that Miller B's on the NE coast. 6z had the same thing at the same time, FWIW (not much). More interesting is the depiction from 160-180hrs, when the GFS does something with a southern stream s/w very much like it was advertising with the southern stream s/w that's out there (partially phasing...) right now. Marginal cold air and the storm doesn't quite get to us. But anytime you've got a vortmax passing to your south in the climo wheelhouse, it's work keeping an eye on. Edit..Replace "marginal cold air" in the last sentence to "nonexistant cold air". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 That's not a cutter at all. It's a clipper that Miller B's on the NE coast. 6z had the same thing at the same time, FWIW (not much). Just for giggles I checked out 850's and precip for that system. It does spit out some precip in our parts and the 850's are plenty cold. Both of which are highly questionable but doesn't matter because it's in fantasyland and we all know what happens when the 850 low tracks to our north before jumping. One thing I have learned from staring at models that last 5 years is that precip on Miller B's is almost always modeled too far S&E and not far enough N&W with miller A's. This time frame is of interest because there have been many variations of troughing in our parts. Heck, there was arctic air overhead in the lr on the gfs a few days ago. Give us a +pna and trough in these parts first and everything else can work itself out (for better or for worse). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The 240 hour euro actually has the type of pattern that would give us a chance,,,,to bad it's at 240 hours but it's an interesting look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The 240 hour euro actually has the type of pattern that would give us a chance,,,,to bad it's at 240 hours but it's an interesting look. yeah....I noticed after day 7,the euro gets better....the day 8 threat isn't promising, but it may be a period to watch....I knew you'd like the setup at day 10 with the trough over the maritimes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 yeah....I noticed after day 7,the euro gets better....the day 8 threat isn't promising, but it may be a period to watch....I knew you'd like the setup at day 10 with the trough over the maritimes.... Today's CWG piece that wil run originally mentioned the spiking of the PNA ridge as a time to watch but I think after seeing the GFS I got discouraged and took it out or at least tempered the statement. Too bad the threat is on day 10 and not day 4. It's bound to look different on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 i remember 10 days ago when people were like "the models actually look good and have not all winter.. this time is different" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Today's CWG piece that wil run originally mentioned the spiking of the PNA ridge as a time to watch but I think after seeing the GFS I got discouraged and took it out or at least tempered the statement. Too bad the threat is on day 10 and not day 4. It's bound to look different on the next run. the models were disastrous last night...hopefully they keep improving.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 0z euro is interesting by end of next week....miller B advertised, but more importantly is the +PNA/-EPO look which I haven't really seen modeled so robustly yet this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Haven't there been a couple of Mets suggesting that there would be a window of opportunity in early Feb? The Euro, GFS, and the Canadian all have a deep trough digging in the East 8-9 days out. Maybe something brewing?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's looking like we'll see some sort of system next Thu/Fri, whether it be a cutter or a coastal. Latest GFS and Euro Ops show rain, but there is a lot of stuff going on... a number of possible outcomes still remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's looking like we'll see some sort of system next Thu/Fri, whether it be a cutter or a coastal. Latest GFS and Euro Ops show rain, but there is a lot of stuff going on... a number of possible outcomes still remain. Are you talking about the low off tbe coast with the 850 line still west of us??? I dont know what hour the system it is. It doesnt look like a cutter but I maybe wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Are you talking about the low off tbe coast with the 850 line still west of us??? I dont know what hour the system it is. It doesnt look like a cutter but I maybe wrong. It develops over the southern Plains and the Southeast Wednesday and Thursday and makes its way up to us later on Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 0z Euro has a Day 9 coastal with 850s below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's a massive 1016 bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Beggars can't be choosers. It has a nice looking pattern if it were to verify and might gives us a week to get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm kinda diggin the fact that both the euro and gfs look basically the same in a week. It's looking likely that we do get a decent +pna next week. Low pressure and precip can all work itself out. I'm not really paying much attention to that at this point. I'm all in for the Fri-Sun period next week but that aint sayin much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's a massive 1016 bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 168 hr gfs is very interesting. It and the euro are now suggesting we are going into a week period where we ahve the potential for getting a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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