40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like around the 20th or so we might get some clipper type systems...flow aloft is pretty damn fast and looks really active...also looks pretty darn cold as well. At least it looks like xmas week will be cold....save the torch for the 1st week of January; xmas is the one time of year that I don't mind cold without snow (if indeed we don't see snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Could happen but imho not for long. The NAO will not be denied and she'll be back. Furthermore, if this storm happens, it adds some life to it. The Jan torch has been touted by many since fall, they can not back down now, although many had mid Dec as the start of the warming trend. It's snowing, I have cover life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's never really a good thing when you're in the bullseye that far out...as much as this sentence probably gets overused...same thing in the summer for convection...I HATE when the models 4+ days out show PERFECT timing of the cold front b/c you know that timing is not going to work out and the front will come through earlier or later and that's not a good thing. I know Ray said if the 12z Euro is still meh tomorrow it may be time for concern, DT said that as well (for our sake) but I'll really give this until 12z runs on Thursday...when you're dealing with timing issues you almost have to wait until you're in the short-term to finally jump the gun. Yea, if the EURO is still crap at 12z Thursday then it's probably gm over......I just think 12z tmw would warrant some concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's never really a good thing when you're in the bullseye that far out...as much as this sentence probably gets overused...same thing in the summer for convection...I HATE when the models 4+ days out show PERFECT timing of the cold front b/c you know that timing is not going to work out and the front will come through earlier or later and that's not a good thing. I know Ray said if the 12z Euro is still meh tomorrow it may be time for concern, DT said that as well (for our sake) but I'll really give this until 12z runs on Thursday...when you're dealing with timing issues you almost have to wait until you're in the short-term to finally jump the gun. It may be one of those things where we have to wait until the actual s/w is sampled by RAOBs. It could take 2-3 more days easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'd get nervous if the EURO is still meager at 12z tmw. yeah, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 At least it looks like xmas week will be cold....save the torch for the 1st week of January; xmas is the one time of year that I don't mind cold without snow (if indeed we don't see snow). Yeah both the GFS/Euro have really been hitting the cold hard for the period prior to Christmas...I don't actually mind the real cold either, just finally been able to handle the cold, just so long as it's not windy I can deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It may be one of those things where we have to wait until the actual s/w is sampled by RAOBs. It could take 2-3 more days easily. Yeah that's a great point! Once we get the s/w into the US and into a better data source region we should have a much better idea. I'll definitely give this one3-4 more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah that's a great point! Once we get the s/w into the US and into a better data source region we should have a much better idea. I'll definitely give this one3-4 more days. He is technically right, but tell me you won't have a sick feeling in the pit on your stomach if the EURO is burying Bermuda at 12z on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 He is technically right, but tell me you won't have a sick feeling in the pit on your stomach if the EURO is burying Bermuda at 12z on Thursday. Well if it sux on Thursday, I would worry some. That's 2.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 He is technically right, but tell me you won't have a sick feeling in the pit on your stomach if the EURO is burying Bermuda at 12z on Thursday. I can't deny I won't have a sick feeling lol b/c I definitely would. I would just try the best I could to remain somewhat hopeful/positive even though deep down I'll feel a knife with "2010" carved in it is stabbing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well if it sux on Thursday, I would worry some. That's 2.5 days out. It's also going to depend on exactly how extreme of a difference it is between the northern stream energy and southern stream energy...if it's something like where it's just 6 hours too slow with the northern stream energy well that's still pretty close to where something could happen...but if it's like 8-9+ hours difference than that would be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well if it sux on Thursday, I would worry some. That's 2.5 days out. I tend to describe things rather tersely, in a matter-of-fact manner and I know it gets obnoxious....so I'm sorry for getting annoying, but I honestly am not ready to axe the threat.....but when a run blows, I'm gonna state it in no uncertain terms. lol Believe me, folks will hear it loud and clearly when I see fit to declare "gm ovr". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 0 For 2 so far tonight. Canadian and GFS whiffing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Canadian looks a little better than 12z, but that may be due to slightly stronger southern stream s/w action at hr 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 0 For 2 so far tonight. Canadian and GFS whiffing You especially want a whiff this far out normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS ensembles look about the same as 18z. 200 SE of BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Canadian looks similar to the gfs ensembles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Canadian looks similar to the gfs ensembles as well. A little closer in, maybe only 75-100 mi SE of BM..its getting most of eastern SNE with precip it looks like. But either way, not bad...its definitely close enough to keep us all interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Starting to get into the Euro's money range. I hope it digs that northern vort a little further south than the Canadian/GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I find it somewhat hilarious that we are hoping for NS interaction in a moderate nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Lee to Philly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 A little closer in, maybe only 75-100 mi SE of BM..its getting most of eastern SNE with precip it looks like. But either way, not bad...its definitely close enough to keep us all interested. Yeah I only saw the B&W earlier. It brushes se mass at least on the color maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The northern stream almost always wins this year...look at this recent event. I suppose it could just be an insignificant flat southern wave, but if it phases to any degree and we get a big storm then I think it will keep trending northwest to where the best northern stream energy is. I don't think this is the winter of 09-10 again for DC. It's also going to depend on exactly how extreme of a difference it is between the northern stream energy and southern stream energy...if it's something like where it's just 6 hours too slow with the northern stream energy well that's still pretty close to where something could happen...but if it's like 8-9+ hours difference than that would be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Do we want to see a stronger southern stream energy or stronger northern stream energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Do we want to see a stronger southern stream energy or stronger northern stream energy? I don't think its about strength really...its about timing/phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't think its about strength really...its about timing/phasing. Thanks, was just wondering if strength would have any sort of role. As far as timing issues with the two pieces of energy would there be anything upstrea or downstream we'd want to see that could cause slower or faster timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS ensembles look about the same as 18z. 200 SE of BM. At least they are not showing a glc, plenty of time to correct west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Euro looks like its coming in fairly flat...it seems as if the southern stream randomly lost a bunch of vorticity between 66 and 72h...and the PV isn't really split into two, more like elongated..but this might make a late run at turning left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 UKMET decides to become a bomb in the gulf of Maine area.. 969 mb http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 990 at 120 to 969 at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah the Euro is definitely going to make a late effort to hook this left....we'll see if its similar to the sensible wx result of the 12z run or if it comes closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.