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D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?


weathafella

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Nice to see the 18z come back substantially with this thing... Seems so far in this when a given model drops, it only does so for one run. ...Not sure if any significance to that observation but it is what it is. The 00z Euro will be interesting.

Really not much to add as Will stated. Kind of a waiting game - that's sometimes the problem when the runs pick something this far in advance. And also ... therein lies the risk of vesting too much time in anticipation. Integrating a whole week's worth of expectation only to have ti miss would be ...well, not good considering where we've come.

Hopefully this won't do that. Hopefully this wont' fall on deaf ears, but it might be time remember that you give into it on your own. You know, this could bomb 20ft too far off shore to bring a flurry to BOS and guess what, at this time range the current 00z/06z/12z would be fantastic solutions relative to skill at this type of time lead, having never realized a flake in the area ;)

Just something to (hopefully) keep things in perspective as we get through the week and churn out these model runs.

John--waiting for your correction vector.

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Really? I mean I guess that given it's D6+ there's a good chance of losing it completely because the timing is wrong, but in terms of the overall pattern I think it could easily favor something cutting over SNE... there's not much of a 50/50 low. If it phases well than it probably will cut over SNE as it wraps around or phases with the PV over the great lakes. I'm sort of like 30/30/40 on west track vs coastal track vs OTS/no storm. I don't know, maybe that's a little aggressive for D6 but I think there's a pretty good signal at this point

The problem with saying it would have a better chance of going too far W vs OTS is fairly simple...you HAVE to get a phase for it to go too far west, yet, even if we get a phase, it doesn't guarantee a too far W solution (see 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS)....only the most extreme phase solutions would cut it up the CT River or Hudson River...so yeah, I would put that chance of happening much less than a solution too far east like a scraper or even a whiff.

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Take the hot rod minivan and camp out in it. What an experience!

Might be a good idea. My brother lives in Foxboro so there is always that option. I still plan on skiing with some folks on Monday morning (Ginx, Cpick...you guys up for it?) at WaWa

Don't mean to keep going OT

Server seems fine here? Good to have a legit threat for Ray to track... long way to go

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The problem with saying it would have a better chance of going too far W vs OTS is fairly simple...you HAVE to get a phase for it to go too far west, yet, even if we get a phase, it doesn't guarantee a too far W solution (see 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS)....only the most extreme phase solutions would cut it up the CT River or Hudson River...so yeah, I would put that chance of happening much less than a solution too far east like a scraper or even a whiff.

OK yeah -- that is a problem with most d6+ storms, it simply might not phase. I guess I would just like my chances better on the shore if we had a better 50/50 low.. something that would keep this offshore even if it does phase.

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Feb. 2006 for me :(

Ugh I have been spoiled .. 3 18"+ storms last year for me.. 2 in Middlebury and the snow followed me home for 12/19 last year too. I can't even imagine not getting at least one 12"/year now any more. I guess I had better start getting used to it again. Maybe my luck will follow for one more year.

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