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D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?


weathafella

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Wouldn't it be nice if this suite shows a huge hit.. cmon SNE is due for a good trend! Everybody start thinking good juju

That would be nice.

Personally, I'd prefer that it hold serve for a few more runs and shift west closer to Sunday.

But I'll take a shift west now over a jog east any time.

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I'm looking for evolutional consistency and don't really see it just yet. It is interesting that there is a "consensus" in the model solutions although they have different ideas on timing, phasing, and southern vs northern stream dominant players. Wouldn't be surprised in the least to see some different outcomes today.

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We should see a jump west of all modleling with today's 12z runs..and a much bigger jump west tonight , if history has any bearing on how this plays out. The Euro esp. should have the storm closer to the coast just based on the synoptic setup it's showing as DT said

Can you explain more what dt said?

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Can you explain more what dt said?

Basically that the last few runs of the Euro.even though most have in essence been a miss except for ENE... the way it's buckling the flow and the bending back west of the isobars..means that the storm should be corrected closer to the coast..and thus the snow field should also would be farther westward than what the surface depiction shows

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If this storm doesn't show a biggie, its Tobin Time!

Not yet, man. We're still a long way out (This coming from myself, one of the most pessimistic people on the board)

If in the end, it does come down to taking the dive, make sure you climb up to the top. Jumping at the location of this guy only serves to damage your body, but not finish you off.

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Not yet, man. We're still a long way out (This coming from myself, one of the most pessimistic people on the board)

If in the end, it does come down to taking the dive, make sure you climb up to the top. Jumping at the location of this guy only serves to damage your body, but not finish you off.

I want to be there when you crack.

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If this storms happens, i'm gonna run around naked outside come Monday morning!!! I just don't see it happenin.

I was looking to see if you had any pics on your profile so I could know whether to support this or not....alas pics and not even a gender!

The overnight runs were depressing and I gave up on this system. We cannot shake this horrible pattern for snow that we have been in for about one year. It gave us a fantastic long warm spring summer and fall but it sucks for winter!

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I think BOS has gone 291 (or so) days without measurable (based on Barry Burbank) unless they got something last night?

They reported a T on Dec 14, so I don't know if that counts as measurable?

Anyway... the beat goes on

Actually, he says 292 days (as of this morning)

Record is 303 days from 1999-2000

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Its good to see Virginia get another snowstorm, and this year its happening in a Nina, not many people expected that to occur. But, good for them!!:snowman::thumbsup:

It's because they want it more than you do.

You're not trying hard enough, and that's why you get nothing.

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Eh, too much verbiage when the bottom lines are much simpler:

Too early to pull the plug based on this when multiple times in history the models have demonstrated this type of ‘lose the system, only to bring it back’ behavior. That’s all that really needs to be said.

Now, before going any further, I would add here not to let this one get to you should it miss, and here is why –

If the models were puking out a phantom southern stream short wave all along, then there was nothing really to get your hopes up over. Think about that long and hard you are far better situated having it be only Wednesday and this happens, rather than Saturday ;)

That said, the dynamics for this are still over the Pacific. The modelers at NCEP would claim the assimilation and satellite soundings are sufficient to make that a non-issue, but I have seen system morphologies too often since the employment of those process, upon a system coming over land, to be utterly convinced of this. I don't mean to spark a debate about this, it is just that simple. If this does come in strong on the 12z and then continues as we go forward, there had to be some reason why the morphology took place yet again. We'll see...

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What was his name? I went to LSC too back in the 80s with a met degree but I never worked in the field (unless you include consulting). I knew a couple of guys that became teachers. One was from NYC and the other was from Mass. I saw your comment and thought...hey, there are other guys out there like me!

Dave

His name is Marc Richard, I believe though he graduated in the early or mid 90's...he actually went there around the same time as Ekster did...in fact maybe Ekster knows him :lol:

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We should see a jump west of all modleling with today's 12z runs..and a much bigger jump west tonight , if history has any bearing on how this plays out. The Euro esp. should have the storm closer to the coast just based on the synoptic setup it's showing as DT said

:weenie:

I wonder how many storms that do not trend northwest it's going to take for you to realize that this is not a normal La Nina year, and this is not one of the SWFE we saw in 07-08 and 08-09

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I'd hedge against that but 12z runs today should give some inkling.

Yup. Thanks for the reply. I'll probably wait 24 hours, anyway, before trying to pin this down. I've got boats in the water and worry about snow (it weighs down my smaller one but I have to leave it in the water to work) and the wind. Cheers.

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His name is Marc Richard, I believe though he graduated in the early or mid 90's...he actually went there around the same time as Ekster did...in fact maybe Ekster knows him :lol:

He graduated around 94/95. We were classmates. He had a passion back then for aviation meteorology and getting a pilots license.

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

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For what it is worth ... the 12z NAM is now trended stronger with the southern stream at 48 hours compared to the same period off the 00z and 06z runs. We'll see what this relays into down stream...

By the way, for moderation/Will etc, did I log in I am being redirected to a 404 error, can not load page type screen, but the indication at the top is tha that the log in was successful nonetheless. Just fyi -

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