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D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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I've always said it was game over if the Euro didn't show something promising by 12z tomorrow...It's in this thread. We'll find it if need be. "Promising" can be interpreted in many different ways. But I think it needs to be a decent ENE hit.

Ok, no need to dig it up......I'll take your word for it....folks always seem to take me as more pessimistic than I am, when in actuality, I'm favoring an outcome pretty close to the board conscensus....must be the heavy, heavy sardonics. lol

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Just to be clear, there is no way that I would have been able to discern those N stream differences; that is what I was getting at in that I don't just pull stuff out of my azz.....I need help with the H5 stuff, but once I glean that info from Will and others, then I can actually contribute something worthwhile other than a :weenie:.

Yeah I know what you mean...I don't think I'm all that great either with reading models...I do the best I can with what I know then try to rely on what the more experienced and knowledgeable posters have to say to try and fill in any questions I have. I really want to work more on this over the winter...might just start doing a lot of googling and going to theweatherprediction.com...that's a GREAT website.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Will, I don't have access to the specific vort images (I have SV data and only 500mb heights), but does the Euro have any semblance of the shortwave over MT/UT and the Plains that the GFS still has at 00z, and was phasing in W of the MS River at 12-18z?

Euro has a very impressive vort at 42h going over WY, but it gets absorbed into the northern stream. The southern stream is left to rot. It gets absorbed into the northern stream lobe over MN by 48-54 and leaves the S stream left hung out to dry. It has another vortmax diving SE out of Idaho and WY at about 84-90 trying to amplify the southern stream, but it ends up being quite too late for hooking this left.

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Chris L

Chris L

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Yeah I know what you mean...I don't think I'm all that great either with reading models...I do the best I can with what I know then try to rely on what the more experienced and knowledgeable posters have to say to try and fill in any questions I have. I really want to work more on this over the winter...might just start doing a lot of googling and going to theweatherprediction.com...that's a GREAT website.

I have TONS, I mean TONS of PDF files on East Coast Snowstorms.... Here's Boston's required setups...

http://etd.ohiolink....f?osu1250189042 (120 pages). 18 mb file.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Haha, I am still getting used to it. I am pretty new overall to the forums since I never posted at Eastern (like 30 times in 3 years). The weenies abound in central/western as well. I like the enthusiasm though. I am catching up right now on your ECM discussion...the 0Z model thread in the general forum died after the 0Z op GFS came in and said no.

Well thats good...I'll just say right now that thermodynamics do not matter on this board....that's over weenies' heads. It will sound impressive, but won't cut it for trying to describe why a model solution is right. I tried that back in 2005-2006 and only Typhoon_Tip responded to me...as good as he is...we both know this board is about bantering with other weather weenies....but most of them do not know the hypsometric equation or the hydrostatic equation.

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earthlight

earthlight

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Euro has a very impressive vort at 42h going over WY, but it gets absorbed into the northern stream. The southern stream is left to rot. It gets absorbed into the northern stream lobe over MN by 48-54 and leaves the S stream left hung out to dry. It has another vortmax diving SE out of Idaho and WY at about 84-90 trying to amplify the southern stream, but it ends up being quite too late for hooking this left.

Yeah that's pretty disappointing. I'll tell you what, it was probably ill-advised but I did get pretty excited when the 18z NAM showed that shortwave over WY/MT diving south into the trough and the DGEX had the big hit. All seems pretty tempered now given what we have seen unfold tonight--but the Euro's shocking instability in handling the northern stream does offer some hope.

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earthlight

earthlight

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Well thats good...I'll just say right now that thermodynamics do not matter on this board....that's over weenies' heads. It will sound impressive, but won't cut it for trying to describe why a model solution is right. I tried that back in 2005-2006 and only Typhoon_Tip responded to me...as good as he is...we both know this board is about bantering with other weather weenies....but most of them do not know the hypsometric equation or the hydrostatic equation.

Should I create a thermodynamic equation discussion forum for you two?

:weenie:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Yeah that's pretty disappointing. I'll tell you what, it was probably ill-advised but I did get pretty excited when the 18z NAM showed that shortwave over WY/MT diving south into the trough and the DGEX had the big hit. All seems pretty tempered now given what we have seen unfold tonight--but the Euro's shocking instability in handling the northern stream does offer some hope.

The Euro obviously showing some chinks in its armor is a decent development tonight. It still has some features that it did before...esp the lack of the southern stream. But we can at least say it doesn't handle that very well...but if its right, its just another huge win for the Euro...we need a big southern stream storm to prove them wrong here.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Euro has a very impressive vort at 42h going over WY, but it gets absorbed into the northern stream. The southern stream is left to rot. It gets absorbed into the northern stream lobe over MN by 48-54 and leaves the S stream left hung out to dry. It has another vortmax diving SE out of Idaho and WY at about 84-90 trying to amplify the southern stream, but it ends up being quite too late for hooking this left.

Yeah I agree, I think the main difference with the ECM is the lack of phasing with the two upper tropospheric southern stream anomalies. Without that the southern stream "rots" as you say. The latest 0Z GFS shows a solid phase of those two waves, but the northern stream is much less favorable for warm air advection induced upper level height rises and self development. As one other said earlier, it seems the ECM/GFS have flip-flopped regarding what is suppressing the overall potential.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I am down for a dynamic and/or thermo discussion thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

You would probably beat me....you sound young out of college...I am not anymore. I was maybe 4-5 years ago. I have no desire to go back into that type of math, but it is certainly helpful in the back of my brain when I look models...

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