D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[Chris L]

That year pulled KUs in July.....it was just raining Kocins.....

[nzucker]

Actually, February 1969, KU month, had events where the PNA was negative.....

Interesting pattern that month and quite similar to our current situation....we did have a weak Niño though:

[weatherwiz]

Quite the unsavory alarm for mom, eh....

A+

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well what should we gather from the euro? Sounds like it's much improved with the northern stream energy and with the PV but now the southern stream energy is crap. So what was good before is now bad and what was bad is now good.

I think the S stream issue is far more easily correctable than the prior PV oriented, N stream issues, thus the trend vector is a net positive with regard to that run.

[ORH_wxman]

That year pulled KUs in July.....it was just raining Kocins.....

Yeah...sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't...but to say the pna is the culprit is bad meteorology....I already posted countless storms that hammered you in that setup...its often a ENE type jackpot in a -pna/-nao pattern, thats why all those winters killed you.

[earthlight]

Will, just saw the Euro changes aloft with the PV. That's pretty alarming, but in the end it results in a flat solution. It's kind of jumped around with the southern stream amplification, we will see what tomorrow has to offer.

[Dsnowx53]

There must be a reason why the model runs with the weaker northern stream have a stronger southern stream, and vice versa. That is what has me confused. The 12z GFS had the LEAST northern stream influence, and the strongest southern stream. The 18z GFS had a little more northern stream influence, but a little bit weaker of a southern stream.

The 12z Euro had an okay southern stream at best...nothing too great, but a lot of northern stream influence. The 0z Euro had a horrible southern stream, but a MUCH more involved northern stream.

What I'm thinking is that the initial strength and influence of the northern stream before the phase helps to deamplify the pattern to start us off, which is why the southern stream is so much weaker in the runs with the great northern stream influence. In those cases, although the northern stream drops in later, there is basically nothing for it to even phase with because of how deamplified the southern stream was.

Does anyone think there is merit to this?

[ORH_wxman]

Will, just saw the Euro changes aloft with the PV. That's pretty alarming, but in the end it results in a flat solution. It's kind of jumped around with the southern stream amplification, we will see what tomorrow has to offer.

The northern stream differences are disgusting. This is the first time I've seen that in this threat. This threat isn't dead by a long shot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah...sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't...but to say the pna is the culprit is bad meteorology....I already posted countless storms that hammered you in that setup...its often a ENE type jackpot in a -pna/-nao pattern, thats why all those winters killed you.

I agree....said all along, I will make up for lost time at some point this season....very likely March and it could still start now.

[weatherwiz]

I think the S stream issue is far more easily correctable than the prior PV oriented, N stream issues, thus the trend vector is a net positive with regard to that run.

Well that is good to hear! Unfortunately I will be out tomorrow until I have no clue when and since I don't have a phone I'll have to go a period without knowing what the models show :/

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well that is good to hear! Unfortunately I will be out tomorrow until I have no clue when and since I don't have a phone I'll have to go a period without knowing what the models show :/

You don't want to relay upon relatively large scale morphologies in the evoloution of a PV, however a futile sw is easily correctable until the said sw is PHYSICALLY sampeled and assimilated into the models' initialization scheme, thus if the 12z EURO maintains continuity with regard to that vastly different and more favorable N stream...then I think I'd be inclined to extend that 12z tmw deadline out another 24 hrs to 12z Thursday, or whenever the hell that SW decides to tickle Hurricane Josh's fanny.

I think the EURO's depiction of the N stream tmw is more important than whether or not we see the desired S stream zeal, due to the fact that the SW will have remained out over buttfu** island in the PAC at such a time.

[Chris L]

You don't want to relay upon relatively large scale morphologies in the evoloution of a PV, however a futile sw is easily correctable until the said sw is PHYSICALLY sampeled and assimilated into the models' initialization scheme, thus if the 12z EURO maintains continuity with regard to that vastly different and more favorable N stream...then I think I'd be inclined to extend that 12z tmw deadline out another 24 hrs to 12z Thursday, or whenever the hell that SW decides to tickle Hurricane Josh's fanny.

I think the EURO's depiction of the N stream tmw is more important than whether or not we see the desired S stream zeal, due to the fact that the SW will have remained out over buttfu** island in the PAC at such a time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sarcasm flows onto my keyboard quite easily and readily late at night.....probably not the only nocturnal emission undergone by the creepy populous of this board....

[Chris L]

Sarcasm flows onto my keyboard quite easily and readily late at night.....probably not the only nocturnal emission undergone by the creepy populous of this board....

Now this is HILARIOUS.

[ORH_wxman]

You don't want to relay upon relatively large scale morphologies in the evoloution of a PV, however a futile sw is easily correctable until the said sw is PHYSICALLY sampeled and assimilated into the models' initialization scheme, thus if the 12z EURO maintains continuity with regard to that vastly different and more favorable N stream...then I think I'd be inclined to extend that 12z tmw deadline out another 24 hrs to 12z Thursday, or whenever the hell that SW decides to tickle Hurricane Josh's fanny.

I think the EURO's depiction of the N stream tmw is more important than whether or not we see the desired s stream zeal, due to the fact that the SW will have remained out over buttfu** island in the PAC as such a time.

:lmao:

Its def still offshore and the Euro has a fetish for keeping SW energy subdued and hung back....it loves to minimize it. It might be the reason it was so bad in the 12/19/09 event and also why it was so bad in the Dec 2004 event....but we are at a crossroads right now. Euro needs to come NW very soon despite its major shift in the northern stream.

If we dont see a major shift NW by tomorrow at this time, then its game over....but we have some legit reason to believe these models are totally effed up right now. The continuity break in the Euro is huge IMHO.

[baroclinic_instability]

I was invited by Chris L since I am not a SNE'r. You guys definitely hit these threads hard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sarcasm flows onto my keyboard quite easily and readily late at night.....probably not the only nocturnal emission undergone by the creepy populous of this board....

Now this is HILARIOUS.

You're about to be exhibit A....careful

[weatherwiz]

You don't want to relay upon relatively large scale morphologies in the evoloution of a PV, however a futile sw is easily correctable until the said sw is PHYSICALLY sampeled and assimilated into the models' initialization scheme, thus if the 12z EURO maintains continuity with regard to that vastly different and more favorable N stream...then I think I'd be inclined to extend that 12z tmw deadline out another 24 hrs to 12z Thursday, or whenever the hell that SW decides to tickle Hurricane Josh's fanny.

I think the EURO's depiction of the N stream tmw is more important than whether or not we see the desired s stream zeal, due to the fact that the SW will have remained out over buttfu** island in the PAC as such a time.

So maybe my original thinking of waiting to 12z Thursday to bail or not may work out after all

Definitely glad to hear about the major differences within the northern stream, sounds like the difference was pretty drastic...sounds uncharacteristic for the Euro to flip that drastically, especially considering where we are getting inside hour wise. Seeing such a drastic change though, while encouraging can also be a bit of an alarm, until we start seeing some consistency with this than I won't increase my interest just yet.

I just hope the 12z euro tomorrow shows the same idea about the northern stream.

[Chris L]

You're about to be exhibit A....careful

lmao.

[Chris L]

I was invited by Chris L since I am not a SNE'r. You guys definitely hit these threads hard.

Well, I was just telling you that the more accurate analysis of the ECMWF is found here

[earthlight]

It's amazing how much the Euro actually jumped in regards to the northern stream. I can't even say that it's more in line with the older runs of the GFS or any other model because it isn't terribly reminiscent of them either. The main thing I keep thinking about is that it trended stronger with the southern stream at 12z, and was suppressive with the PV...then trended less suppressive with the PV at 00z but weaker with the southern stream, both times showing a very flat solution. I think the net result is a status quo in regards to the Euro..and we are def. running low on time (2-4 runs) for a big trend back west--although the argument is there that this H5 depiction offers room for it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

:lmao:

Its def still offshore and the Euro has a fetish for keeping SW energy subdued and hung back....it loves to minimize it. It might be the reason it was so bad in the 12/19/09 event and also why it was so bad in the Dec 2004 event....but we are at a crossroads right now. Euro needs to come NW very soon despite its major shift in the northern stream.

If we dont see a major shift NW by tomorrow at this time, then its game over....but we have some legit reason to believe these models are totally effed up right now. The continuity break in the Euro is huge IMHO.

You finally capitulate to me in that respect, as I waiver a bit.....again, my ammendment with respect to that is that should the EURO maintain the more favorable N stream tmw, then I think this warrants more time until that sw is onshore.....but I admit12z tmw is still important as far as instilling much confidence in a positive outcome.

Should the better N stream go poof tmw at 12z, then yea.....chair tippn' time.

[ORH_wxman]

I was invited by Chris L since I am not a SNE'r. You guys definitely hit these threads hard.

I've read several of your posts BI...you have a good backround knowledge of thermodynamics....but do you have what it takes to take on the weenies? lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

So maybe my original thinking of waiting to 12z Thursday to bail or not may work out after all

Definitely glad to hear about the major differences within the northern stream, sounds like the difference was pretty drastic...sounds uncharacteristic for the Euro to flip that drastically, especially considering where we are getting inside hour wise. Seeing such a drastic change though, while encouraging can also be a bit of an alarm, until we start seeing some consistency with this than I won't increase my interest just yet.

I just hope the 12z euro tomorrow shows the same idea about the northern stream.

Just to be clear, there is no way that I would have been able to discern those N stream differences; that is what I was getting at in that I don't just pull stuff out of my azz.....I need help with the H5 stuff, but once I glean that info from Will and others, then I can actually contribute something worthwhile other than a .

[Chris L]

Is it possible that in this setup, such shifts will happen at the last minute? Obviously a weenie post there....

But, since the setup is convoluted.....

[earthlight]

Will, I don't have access to the specific vort images (I have SV data and only 500mb heights), but does the Euro have any semblance of the shortwave over MT/UT and the Plains that the GFS still has at 00z, and was phasing in W of the MS River at 12-18z?

[ORH_wxman]

You finally capitulate to me in that respect, as I waiver a bit.....again, my ammendment with respect to that is that should the EURO maintain the more favorable N stream tmw, then I think this warrants more time until that sw is onshore.....but I admit12z tmw is still important as far as instilling much confidence in a positive outcome.

Should the better N stream go poof tmw at 12z, then yea.....chair tippn' time.

I've always said it was game over if the Euro didn't show something promising by 12z tomorrow...It's in this thread. We'll find it if need be. "Promising" can be interpreted in many different ways. But I think it needs to be a decent ENE hit.

[baroclinic_instability]

I've read several of your posts BI...you have a good backround knowledge of thermodynamics....but do you have what it takes to take on the weenies? lol

Haha, I am still getting used to it. I am pretty new overall to the forums since I never posted at Eastern (like 30 times in 3 years). The weenies abound in central/western as well. I like the enthusiasm though. I am catching up right now on your ECM discussion...the 0Z model thread in the general forum died after the 0Z op GFS came in and said no.

[earthlight]

The real difference on the GFS is the northern stream, when one looks at it more objectively. It's flat because of that, but it still holds on to it's H5 depiction which it has had for five or six runs now. That shortwave over the Rockies still dives southeast and phases into the trough base over the SE states, which tugs the surface low up the coast. The difference is the PV orientation is much more suppressive on this run. Here's the visual..

00z run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f78.gif

18z run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f84.gif

You can see for yourself that the shortwave over the Great Lakes being further south screwed the amplification of heights in the east completely.

[Chris L]

Haha, I am still getting used to it. I am pretty new overall to the forums since I never posted at Eastern (like 30 times in 3 years). The weenies abound in central/western as well. I like the enthusiasm though. I am catching up right now on your ECM discussion. The 0Z model thread died after the 0Z op GFS came in and said no.

Yeah... They all figured it would still say no.