D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[nzucker]

The Euro retrogrades the northern stream well far enough W that the trough axis would normally produce a big hit if any substance in the S stream existed. What a bizarre solution.

But it just happens the same run that the Euro makes the northern stream MUCH more receptive to amplification, it has a weak and pathetic S stream that does almost nothing.

Is the SS weak because it never phases in the piece from Montana/Utah?

[ORH_wxman]

I don't think the SS can ever be that strong in this storm with the lack of PNA but the 0z GFS trended stronger with the s/w from 18z so I'm a bit shocked the ECM is so strung out.

The southern stream being weak has zero to do with the pna...its just not there. We've had countless solutions (including previous Euro solutions) where the southern stream was more impressive.

[Mr Torchey]

Well it's not the Nina's fault since the energy we're talking about really is a piece of the polar jet that comes down through MT and Idaho. There's another piece that comes in through AZ/NM. I'm not sure how much ENSO really would help us with that.

Agreed but in the end I think the ss energy is so weak its a mute point. and thats nina love.

[nzucker]

Well it's not the Nina's fault since the energy we're talking about really is a piece of the polar jet that comes down through MT and Idaho. There's another piece that comes in through AZ/NM. I'm not sure how much ENSO really would help us with that.

We'd probably have a stronger piece of energy undercutting the +PNA if this was last year in the strong Niño. That would give us more room for error with the PV phase; this is a delicate timing situation because we don't have a mega strong trough emerging from the Pacific set-up so we have to rely on just the block/PV to get us there. These type of triple phasers are pretty hard to time as climo has shown with only like 5 major hits in 60 years from this type of PV phase.

[ORH_wxman]

Is the SS weak because it never phases in the piece from Montana/Utah?

It does not phase with that piece...no...but that piece if so fast and almost fleeting compared to other runs. Whomever called this a "thread the needle" type phase event is correct. A lot of factors playing here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The southern stream being weak has zero to do with the pna...its just not there. We've had countless solutions (including previous Euro solutions) where the southern stream was more impressive.

He has such a PAC fetish.....he has to tie everything to it.

I'll bet that if I don't get laid on my date this wknd, he'll pull out an sst map of the GOA.....Christ.

Give it until 12z defintiely, considering those radical changes.

[skierinvermont]

I don't think the SS can ever be that strong in this storm with the lack of PNA but the 0z GFS trended stronger with the s/w from 18z so I'm a bit shocked the ECM is so strung out.

More PNA fetish from you.

I seem to remember a pretty strong s/w going west of me a couple days ago in a -PNA.

[Mr Torchey]

The southern stream being weak has zero to do with the pna...its just not there. We've had countless solutions (including previous Euro solutions) where the southern stream was more impressive.

Thats true Will, but how about getting a storm to come ashore down towards san fran, or even further south? It makes a huge difference in sensible weather, especially for ne coastal snow storms.

[dendrite]

The Euro retrogrades the northern stream well far enough W that the trough axis would normally produce a big hit if any substance in the S stream existed. What a bizarre solution.

But it just happens the same run that the Euro makes the northern stream MUCH more receptive to amplification, it has a weak and pathetic S stream that does almost nothing.

Despite the negativity from many it's an intriguing change. I'm actually a little more optimistic for my backyard for the simple fact that the euro had some big changes. We're still 3-5d out without any real model consistency aloft so no one should be throwing in the towel.

[weatherwiz]

He has such a PAC fetish.....he has to tie everything to it.

I'll bet that if I don't get laid on my date this wknd, he'll pull out an sst map of the GOA.....Christ.

Give it until 12z defintiely, considering those radical changes.

[Dsnowx53]

He has such a PAC fetish.....he has to tie everything to it.

I'll bet that if I don't get laid on my date this wknd, he'll pull out an sst map of the GOA.....Christ.

Give it until 12z defintiely, considering those radical changes.

:lmao:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Despite the negativity from many it's an intriguing change. I'm actually a little more optimistic for my backyard for the simple fact that the euro had some big changes. We're still 3-5d out without any real model consistency aloft so no one should be throwing in the towel.

Agree 100%, but can you at least admit that that was a perverse, 2010 esc way of attaining failure....

It is a net positive, but it's funny as hell, too.

[nzucker]

More PNA fetish from you.

I seem to remember a pretty strong s/w going west of me a couple days ago in a -PNA.

Oh never said we can't have a closed low form over the Midwest or some other such cutter with a -PNA...it's just harder to pump the energy into the SE US with the -PNA since you've got a zonal flow through the CONUS that needs to be backed in with perfect timing from the NAO/PV. We had a particularly potent set-up for HECS events last year with the strong STJ undercutting the northern stream flowing over the block.

[skierinvermont]

Question for Will.. when we're talking about the STJ in a Nino.. does that favor either of the two s/ws in question here (1. the MT one or 2. the AZ/NM one that comes in through CA after breaking off from the GOA low) or is the STJ something different? Would you say this storm has any modeled STJ involvement at all?

[dendrite]

Thats true Will, but how about getting a storm to come ashore down towards san fran, or even further south? It makes a huge difference in sensible weather, especially for ne coastal snow storms.

I prefer to see SLPs around 1008mb over Sri Lanka.

[ORH_wxman]

He has such a PAC fetish.....he has to tie everything to it.

I'll bet that if I don't get laid on my date this wknd, he'll pull out an sst map of the GOA.....Christ.

Give it until 12z defintiely, considering those radical changes.

Well he has obviously gotten a hold of the KU M.A. cookbook at some point in the past 3 weeks because before, he never pulled that up as much, but he obviously read either there, or somewhere that was using them as a guide, that big KU events do not happen from a -PNA...which is generally right....but he keeps forgetting that he is posting in the New England subforum where a large portion of our events are not KUs unlike where he is or further south.

We can easily get a longitude event or a SW flow event that would never be listed in the KU cookbook but gives you 12". I wouldn't bet on you getting 12" right now...but I'll say this easily...if you get over a foot from this coming event, I bet its not a KU storm...it will be an ENE special.

[blizzard24]

i say that models have trend with west with the last storm and i think will get good one this month for sne area . There will be blocking for jan and feb and winter will not be over in jan like some say . more later

[40/70 Benchmark]

i say that models have trend with west with the last storm and i think will get good one this month for sne area . There will be blocking for jan and feb and winter will not be over in jan like some say . more later

Edge of my seat.....

[nzucker]

i say that models have trend with west with the last storm and i think will get good one this month for sne area . There will be blocking for jan and feb and winter will not be over in jan like some say . more later

Less later, please.

[skierinvermont]

Oh never said we can't have a closed low form over the Midwest or some other such cutter with a -PNA...it's just harder to pump the energy into the SE US with the -PNA since you've got a zonal flow through the CONUS that needs to be backed in with perfect timing from the NAO/PV. We had a particularly potent set-up for HECS events last year with the strong STJ undercutting the northern stream flowing over the block.

Sure a +PNA helps create troughs in the SE US but that doesn't mean you can't have strong S/Ws in a -PNA which is what you originally were talking about.

Like I said I seem to remember a pretty strong s/w west of here a couple days ago

[Kaner587]

i say that models have trend with west with the last storm and i think will get good one this month for sne area . There will be blocking for jan and feb and winter will not be over in jan like some say . more later

HE HAS SPOKEN

[40/70 Benchmark]

Less later, please.

His posts would be so much more coherent and sustantative if we had a damn PNA.

[Chris L]

Well he has obviously gotten a hold of the KU M.A. cookbook at some point in the past 3 weeks because before, he never pulled that up as much, but he obviously read either there, or somewhere that was using them as a guide, that big KU events do not happen from a -PNA...which is generally right....but he keeps forgetting that he is posting in the New England subforum where a large portion of our events are not KUs unlike where he is or further south.

We can easily get a longitude event or a SW flow event that would never be listed in the KU cookbook but gives you 12". I wouldn't bet on you getting 12" right now...but I'll say this easily...if you get over a foot from this coming event, I bet its not a KU storm...it will be an ENE special.

Actually, February 1969, KU month, had events where the PNA was negative.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Actually, February 1969, KU month, had events where the PNA was negative.....

That year pulled KUs in July.....it was just raining Kocins.....

[weatherwiz]

That year pulled KUs in July.....it was just raining Kocins.....

Jesus

I shouldn't be laughing this hard or loud this late.

[nzucker]

Sure a +PNA helps create troughs in the SE US but that doesn't mean you can't have strong S/Ws in a -PNA which is what you originally were talking about.

Like I said I seem to remember a pretty strong s/w west of here a couple days ago

I agree, the shortwave just trended weaker on ECM regardless of Pacific. I'm just saying that this set-up is inherently more fragile than last year since we have a weak, unamplified southern stream which we need tugged back at exactly the right moment by the massive PV that's there because of insane -NAO/-AO block. This isn't a 12/19/09 where we would be more likely to get a north trend with the huge STJ cutting under a good PNA/-EPO style block.

[skierinvermont]

His posts would be so much more coherent and sustantative if we had a damn PNA.

I love how this forum just becomes a total troll-fest sometimes

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus

I shouldn't be wanking me weenie this hard or loud this late.

Quite the unsavory alarm for mom, eh....

[earthlight]

I shouldn't be doing it this hard or loud this late.

[weatherwiz]

Well what should we gather from the euro? Sounds like it's much improved with the northern stream energy and with the PV but now the southern stream energy is crap. So what was good before is now bad and what was bad is now good.