D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[Mr Torchey]

Steady.

I still think there is ample time for the ss energy(weak as it maybe) to partially phase with backside vorticity coming down the trough axis. Thats all this event needs, we dont need a phase with the western pv lobe, thats just false.........the fact that the gfs was showing the ss energy to be so robust is a very positive sign, runs will flip, but they all need to flip our way by thursday 12z.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Stop looking at the zone forecasts for your highs that far out....they put them there because they have to at this time range...if it were up the forecasters, I'm sure they'd love to say something like "well if the storm goes east like the 12z Euro, we'll go a high of 32F for Cape Cod and snow"....."but if the 18z GFS is right, we'll go a high of 42F and have snow changing to rain and back to snow"....they are just playing a consensus.

But in the event you get an eastern storm solution that also puts the commahead/CCB over Cape Cod, then you can obviously expect snow with temps near or below freezing.

Ok got it Will.

You seem to have a fetish for day 5 and 6 projected high temps.....

They put about 5% of their time and effort into that....it's often derived in large part from climo.

Ok

I will go to bed now and see the EURO when I wake up, it will likely stay where it was from the 12z run or a smidge to the west.

[ORH_wxman]

It looks we are going to end up pretty frigid for the month of December unless we have a 2007-esque last 10 days. If we end up at like -5 with not much snow, that will be pretty historic.I don't think that is going to happen yet, but just saying how ridiculous that would be....esp since we are all ABOVE AVG precip right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

i know i know, im just saying that whatever the GFS says might not matter anymore at all if the 0z euro continues to show its previous solutions. I mean 4 runs in a row of something pretty similar with many other models showing an OTS solution pretty much kills it...idc how much time is left.

That is all I was getting at when you criticized me for lamenting the 00z GFS; I wasn't making any inferences with regard to the veracity of the model, but merely expressing dissapointment that it was now corroborating the steadfast EURO's depiction...or at least was much closer to it.

[ORH_wxman]

That is all I was getting at when you criticized me for lamenting the 00z GFS; I wasn't making any inferences with regard to the veracity of the model, but merely expressing dissapointment that it was now corroborating the steadfast EURO's depiction...or at least was much closer to it.

Right now at least...any of the talk by the energy mets (they had a fetish for this) of the GFS now being on par with the Euro after its July "upgrade" back in September and October (and even still heard it in November) looks like a total faux creation in their minds. (this may not be totally fair since it produced ok then....but it has sucked since then)

Euro right now is still totally dominating it when the chips are down. A few hurricane and heat ridges in the SE Atlantic have done nothing to fix the GFS in the cold season as far as I can see. Its very early so I still hold out hope for it, but its still the same Cesar Crespo to Manny Ramirez it always was when it matters for the work I do and the weenie in everyone cares about....winter storms.

And to clarify for anyone who didn't first get the Sox analogy:

GFS=Cesar Crespo

ECMWF=Manny Ramirez

[Haline]

I don't care about my backyard, I just want that 1080 to verify in Greenland and recreate that scene on Mars in Total Recall

[dendrite]

Right now at least...any of the talk by the energy mets (they had a fetish for this) of the GFS now being on par with the Euro after its July "upgrade" back in September and October (and even still heard it in November) looks like a total faux creation in their minds. (this may not be totally fair since it produced ok then....but it has sucked since then)

Euro right now is still totally dominating it when the chips are down. A few hurricane and heat ridges in the SE Atlantic have done nothing to fix the GFS in the cold season as far as I can see. Its very early so I still hold out hope for it, but its still the same Cesar Crespo to Manny Ramirez it always was when it matters for the work I do and the weenie in everyone cares about....winter storms.

And to clarify for anyone who didn't first get the Sox analogy:

GFS=Cesar Crespo

ECMWF=Manny Ramirez

4dvar/data assimilation aside...

The Euro is up to T1279 now and has 91 vertical layers. The GFS is T574 and 64. That isn't bad at all, but it's tough to compete with the Euro.

[ORH_wxman]

4dvar/data assimilation aside...

The Euro is up to T1279 now and has 91 vertical layers. The GFS is T574 and 64. That isn't bad at all, but it's tough to compete with the Euro.

Maybe its more like Manny Ramirez vs Billl Hall...but I think we all get the point, lol.

[weatherwiz]

Right now at least...any of the talk by the energy mets (they had a fetish for this) of the GFS now being on par with the Euro after its July "upgrade" back in September and October (and even still heard it in November) looks like a total faux creation in their minds. (this may not be totally fair since it produced ok then....but it has sucked since then)

Euro right now is still totally dominating it when the chips are down. A few hurricane and heat ridges in the SE Atlantic have done nothing to fix the GFS in the cold season as far as I can see. Its very early so I still hold out hope for it, but its still the same Cesar Crespo to Manny Ramirez it always was when it matters for the work I do and the weenie in everyone cares about....winter storms.

And to clarify for anyone who didn't first get the Sox analogy:

GFS=Cesar Crespo

ECMWF=Manny Ramirez

About the GFS this summer though...even though it had the upgrade which made it appear it vastly improved the model it did fairly well with regards to the tropics and doesn't the GFS usually actually outperform the Euro on tropical activity anyways? So is it possible the GFS verification scores were up there with or even slightly better than the GFS just b/c of how well it performed with tropical activity?

[weatherwiz]

Maybe its more like Manny Ramirez vs Billl Hall...but I think we all get the point, lol.

I kind of think of the Cowboys when I think GFS and Patriots when I think Euro.

[ChrisM]

About the GFS this summer though...even though it had the upgrade which made it appear it vastly improved the model it did fairly well with regards to the tropics and doesn't the GFS usually actually outperform the Euro on tropical activity anyways? So is it possible the GFS verification scores were up there with or even slightly better than the GFS just b/c of how well it performed with tropical activity?

Paul do me a favor if youre staying up which im sure you are cause youre nocturnal, or an insomniac. send me a facebook message with what the euro shows, i get facebook messages straight to my phone. the text will wake me up so I can look. Id appreciate it a lot.

goood night everyone, good luck.

[weatherwiz]

Paul do me a favor if youre staying up which im sure you are cause youre nocturnal, or an insomniac. send me a facebook message with what the euro shows, i get facebook messages straight to my phone. the text will wake me up so I can look. Id appreciate it a lot.

goood night everyone, good luck.

Yeah no problem!

[ORH_wxman]

Paul do me a favor if youre staying up which im sure you are cause youre nocturnal, or an insomniac. send me a facebook message with what the euro shows, i get facebook messages straight to my phone. the text will wake me up so I can look. Id appreciate it a lot.

goood night everyone, good luck.

I wouldnt hold much hope for the Euro unless you live in eastern New England...even there it might be ugly...but its not over...obviously the 00z runs are seeing something to push this SE...lets hope that backs off a bit tomorrow.

[ORH_wxman]

Did you lose confidence in your "way east" prediction Joe?

I actually wouldn't be surprised if it was.

[skierinvermont]

There's some decent general agreement between the GFS and Euro through 72 hours now.. the GFS is a little farther south with the PV in SE Canada. That could be good but it doesn't look all that impressive with the SS

[Mr Torchey]

Did you lose confidence in your "way east" prediction Joe?

I actually wouldn't be surprised if it was.

no, just no need to rub it in, we are all dissapointed, not the time or place

[ORH_wxman]

Wow, way different in the northern stream on the Euro....big differences....it has the lakes energy trying to phase, but the southern stream is so pitiful that this may not get anywhere...but if this has the same southern stream as 12z with the 00z northern stream setup, this might be a big hit.

[nzucker]

Wow, way different in the northern stream on the Euro....big differences....it has the lakes energy trying to phase, but the southern stream is so pitiful that this may not get anywhere...but if this has the same southern stream as 12z with the 00z northern stream setup, this might be a big hit.

Weak wave out to Bermuda according to Tombo?

[Mr Torchey]

Wow, way different in the northern stream on the Euro....big differences....it has the lakes energy trying to phase, but the southern stream is so pitiful that this may not get anywhere...but if this has the same southern stream as 12z with the 00z northern stream setup, this might be a big hit.

I question the way the euro depicts sw energy.

Perhaps this may mean something over the next couple of days.?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, way different in the northern stream on the Euro....big differences....it has the lakes energy trying to phase, but the southern stream is so pitiful that this may not get anywhere...but if this has the same southern stream as 12z with the 00z northern stream setup, this might be a big hit.

I'll bet the s stream **cks it up, but it least it showed that this is still not set in stone, if nothing else.

[ORH_wxman]

This is the first time I've seen the Euro go completely different in the northern stream....but unfortunately, the sensible wx result might not be any different, well see. But I'm actually quite intrigued at how much room the Euro is offering the southern stream to phase...it has retrograded the PV so far west that if the S stream had any energy at all, it could rip right up the coast. This is markedly different than the past 3 runs....but amazingly, it might come up with the same SE solution. What a perverse trait of 2010 as Ray would say.

[skierinvermont]

Wow, way different in the northern stream on the Euro....big differences....it has the lakes energy trying to phase, but the southern stream is so pitiful that this may not get anywhere...but if this has the same southern stream as 12z with the 00z northern stream setup, this might be a big hit.

Yeah .. wtf? The northern stream is great this run the PV retrogrades west.. but the southern stream is almost totally flat. Where'd it go? Is there any other support for the SS being that weak? I guess the GEM looked pretty weak with it but I haven't been paying that much attention to the SS because I just assumed we would have a decent s/w.

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah .. wtf? The northern stream is great this run the PV retrogrades west.. but the southern stream is almost totally flat. Where'd it go? Is there any other support for the SS being that weak? I guess the GEM looked pretty weak with it but I haven't been paying that much attention to the SS because I just assumed we would have a decent s/w.

nina

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the trough is so obscenely rounded that this isn't going anywhere....what a bizarre solution...any type of southern stream amplification would have made this a huge northward runner along the boundary. But we essentially have an extremely rounded trough that won't produce much.

[nzucker]

Yeah .. wtf? The northern stream is great this run the PV retrogrades west.. but the southern stream is almost totally flat. Where'd it go? Is there any other support for the SS being that weak? I guess the GEM looked pretty weak with it but I haven't been paying that much attention to the SS because I just assumed we would have a decent s/w.

I don't think the SS can ever be that strong in this storm with the lack of PNA but the 0z GFS trended stronger with the s/w from 18z so I'm a bit shocked the ECM is so strung out.

[Dsnowx53]

This is the first time I've seen the Euro go completely different in the northern stream....but unfortunately, the sensible wx result might not be any different, well see. But I'm actually quite intrigued at how much room the Euro is offering the southern stream to phase...it has retrograded the PV so far west that if the S stream had any energy at all, it could rip right up the coast. This is markedly different than the past 3 runs....but amazingly, it might come up with the same SE solution. What a perverse trait of 2010 as Ray would say.

Perhaps the southern stream never phased with any Montana/Utah/Colorado shortwave that had been coming down on so many runs of the GFS...that would leave the southern stream with very little room to amplify.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the first time I've seen the Euro go completely different in the northern stream....but unfortunately, the sensible wx result might not be any different, well see. But I'm actually quite intrigued at how much room the Euro is offering the southern stream to phase...it has retrograded the PV so far west that if the S stream had any energy at all, it could rip right up the coast. This is markedly different than the past 3 runs....but amazingly, it might come up with the same SE solution. What a perverse trait of 2010 as Ray would say.

Not even looking at the run, but there is no doubt in my mind that that positive development will be negated by the s stream.

Call it a "gut instinct"....I call it 2010.

Nite.

[dendrite]

In the more bad news dept...00z Ukie

[skierinvermont]

nina

Well it's not the Nina's fault since the energy we're talking about really is a piece of the polar jet that comes down through MT and Idaho. There's another piece that comes in through AZ/NM. I'm not sure how much ENSO really would help us with that.

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro retrogrades the northern stream well far enough W that the trough axis would normally produce a big hit if any substance in the S stream existed. What a bizarre solution.

But it just happens the same run that the Euro makes the northern stream MUCH more receptive to amplification, it has a weak and pathetic S stream that does almost nothing.