weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I love those!!! Was actually going to make one a few minutes ago but made salad instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's 100+ hrs out!!! Come on, its still realistic you get a solid snowfall just not as the gfs predicted earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 oof LOL how can anyone take a model seriously that did that in 6hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 h5fantastic Wx balloons all across the region have been crashing due to the weight of accumulated snow all throughout the year......H5 has been like the Sierra Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 oof Va Beach is for weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL how can anyone take a model seriously that did that in 6hours? when i saw the 18z it made me long to be back there.. now im sorta glad im not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 May as well, that's the only region that hasn't flipped me off from the inside of the window. Maybe I should use the rest of 2010 to go on the gut-instinct approach like you without any met reasoning. If I do that, then you'll get your monster as 2010 disappears with the ball dropping...that's been my "gut instinct" feeling outside of meteorological analysis...that you'll get hammered as we waive good bye to 2010. But regardless of that, I'm still standing by not throwing in the towel on this too early. We all wanted just a bit too far SE at D5 right? Well we got that, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 when i saw the 18z it made me long to be back there.. now im sorta glad im not. it's just when a model goes from bringing over 2 and a half feet to some areas and then 6 hours later it brings some cirrus clouds it makes you question its effectiveness outside of 4 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 when i saw the 18z it made me long to be back there.. now im sorta glad im not. You probably wish you still were come later this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe I should use the rest of 2010 to go on the gut-instinct approach like you without any met reasoning. If I do that, then you'll get your monster as 2010 disappears with the ball dropping...that's been my "gut instinct" feeling outside of meteorological analysis...that you'll get hammered as we waive good bye to 2010. But regardless of that, I'm still standing by not throwing in the towel on this too early. We all wanted just a bit too far SE at D5 right? Well we got that, right? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wx balloons all across the region have been crashing due to the weight of accumulated snow all throughout the year......H5 has been like the Sierra Nevada. Ray, if it does not snow this weekend, there will be problems. The NYC area cant b**ch, nor philly nor dc or gods snow anus, not even here on the sw coast (even though last year sucked).........but those from just north of the ri border into eastern mass, up into se nh and almost all of maine............................... Well, they all have every reason to let off some steam......give me a fooking break, I am sick of seeing it snow in Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I certainly wouldn't give up if I had Ray's longitude..... Maybe I should use the rest of 2010 to go on the gut-instinct approach like you without any met reasoning. If I do that, then you'll get your monster as 2010 disappears with the ball dropping...that's been my "gut instinct" feeling outside of meteorological analysis...that you'll get hammered as we waive good bye to 2010. But regardless of that, I'm still standing by not throwing in the towel on this too early. We all wanted just a bit too far SE at D5 right? Well we got that, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I certainly wouldn't give up if I had Ray's longitude..... I'm not giving up here....but I'd certainly feel better if I were at his longitude. I said it earlier...I'd feel better if I was east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like you may get your wish for awhile soon. Not sure about this...GFS once again kills all our storm chances for next week by having a 520dm vortex sitting over NNE suppressing everything. We get into a good pattern for a redeveloping clipper but everything gets shredded to bits by the massive ULL that keeps -12C 850s over us with a bitterly cold and dry NW flow. Once again, the cold regime looks to be mostly wasted Days 6-10 on the GFS because of excessive blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe I should use the rest of 2010 to go on the gut-instinct approach like you without any met reasoning. If I do that, then you'll get your monster as 2010 disappears with the ball dropping...that's been my "gut instinct" feeling outside of meteorological analysis...that you'll get hammered as we waive good bye to 2010. But regardless of that, I'm still standing by not throwing in the towel on this too early. We all wanted just a bit too far SE at D5 right? Well we got that, right? I'm going to be getting hammered too as 2010 goes out...just not with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe I should use the rest of 2010 to go on the gut-instinct approach like you without any met reasoning. If I do that, then you'll get your monster as 2010 disappears with the ball dropping...that's been my "gut instinct" feeling outside of meteorological analysis...that you'll get hammered as we waive good bye to 2010. But regardless of that, I'm still standing by not throwing in the towel on this too early. We all wanted just a bit too far SE at D5 right? Well we got that, right? It's not 100% "gut instinct"....I do have a pretty good amount of experience falling these systems, but I obviously do not have anywhere near the meteorological prowess that you do, along with some skilled hobbyists....thus my ability to make deductions based soley on met. principles is relatively compromised and I do rely more upon "gut instinct", which is comprised of a fairly extensive knowledge base regarding models, climo\past events and seasonal trends. I'm not 100% pulling it out of my azz....don't make me out to be Metfan, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 You probably wish you still were come later this winter. i dunno.. i got some fake snow last night. it mysteriously disappeared before dawn but it was kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I've lived through winters when every cold regime was wasted Even below normal winters where you just never had a decent storm track. Not sure about this...GFS once again kills all our storm chances for next week by having a 520dm vortex sitting over NNE suppressing everything. We get into a good pattern for a redeveloping clipper but everything gets shredded to bits by the massive ULL that keeps -12C 850s over us with a bitterly cold and dry NW flow. Once again, the cold regime looks to be mostly wasted Days 6-10 on the GFS because of excessive blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I certainly wouldn't give up if I had Ray's longitude..... I haven't given up yet, but I don't feel very confident about a positive outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I haven't given up yet, but I don't feel very confident about a positive outcome. least you're not 100 miles west, i.e. me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 least you're not 100 miles west, i.e. me. LOL 18z gave sw ct 2feet of snow, 0z nothing, fantastic model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think you should definitely still be in tune more than anyone for this...Cape Cod could still get a big hit more than any area. Yeah I do not see this going completely flat and right. Think the scraper idea is pretty good and the Cape could really cash in Sam, Will, I agree. I think it looks pretty good from where I am standing right now, or sitting since I am on the computer. Anyways, this could be a case where the storm intensifies just enough to moves just enough west as it reaches the 35-40n latitude region to give CC the comma head/CCB combo and we end up with warning criteria snowfall. NWS Taunton is too warm right now with highs near 40f on SAT/SUN/MON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sam, Will, I agree. I think it looks pretty good from where I am standing right now, or sitting since I am on the computer. Anyways, this could be a case where the storm intensifies just enough to moves just enough west as it reaches the 35-40n latitude region to give CC the comma head/CCB combo and we end up with warning criteria snowfall. NWS Taunton is too warm right now with highs near 40f on SAT/SUN/MON. Good luck hope you and Philly cheese get buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL 18z gave sw ct 2feet of snow, 0z nothing, fantastic model. eh the euro's probably gonna put the killshot in everyone's hopes in two hours anyway, so the gfs doesn't really matter. if the euro CONTINUES to stay where it is it's basically game over...48 hours of ru nto run consistency basically. if it comes west I'll be pissed off too because I know I'll waste more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sam, Will, I agree. I think it looks pretty good from where I am standing right now, or sitting since I am on the computer. Anyways, this could be a case where the storm intensifies just enough to moves just enough west as it reaches the 35-40n latitude region to give CC the comma head/CCB combo and we end up with warning criteria snowfall. NWS Taunton is too warm right now with highs near 40f on SAT/SUN/MON. Stop looking at the zone forecasts for your highs that far out....they put them there because they have to at this time range...if it were up the forecasters, I'm sure they'd love to say something like "well if the storm goes east like the 12z Euro, we'll go a high of 32F for Cape Cod and snow"....."but if the 18z GFS is right, we'll go a high of 42F and have snow changing to rain and back to snow"....they are just playing a consensus. But in the event you get an eastern storm solution that also puts the commahead/CCB over Cape Cod, then you can obviously expect snow with temps near or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sam, Will, I agree. I think it looks pretty good from where I am standing right now, or sitting since I am on the computer. Anyways, this could be a case where the storm intensifies just enough to moves just enough west as it reaches the 35-40n latitude region to give CC the comma head/CCB combo and we end up with warning criteria snowfall. NWS Taunton is too warm right now with highs near 40f on SAT/SUN/MON. You seem to have a fetish for day 5 and 6 projected high temps..... They put about 5% of their time and effort into that....it's often derived in large part from climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Cold outside, flakes currently falling with a nice breeze and Christmas music playing.......only thing missing is a nice storm on the horizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 eh the euro's probably gonna put the killshot in everyone's hopes in two hours anyway, so the gfs doesn't really matter. if the euro CONTINUES to stay where it is it's basically game over...48 hours of ru nto run consistency basically. if it comes west I'll be pissed off too because I know I'll waste more time. I know I am being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I know I am being sarcastic. i know i know, im just saying that whatever the GFS says might not matter anymore at all if the 0z euro continues to show its previous solutions. I mean 4 runs in a row of something pretty similar with many other models showing an OTS solution pretty much kills it...idc how much time is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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