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D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?


weathafella

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I'll take cold and dry over warm on xmas, but that is it.

Lucky to get that actually, we may be mid 40's and awaiting a very slow moving cold front. Longer range looks to lose the nao (block) and warmer air floods canada from the east. Pattern change may be coming around the new year, and if we go through 3 weeks of potential and very cold temps and come up empty handed it will be tough to take. However, I do take some solice in your March call, you have been steadfast on that for a long period of time, lets hope it comes to fruition!:snowman:

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00z GEFS means look further southeast as well. This could be the last hitch east and then trend west towards the 72-96 hour period. Right now I like the variable prediction of 35-45n and 65-70w.

It actually seems to indicate a bit more of a spread to the west if you look at the isobars, otherwise there was no real movement.

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The GGEM was about 600 miles offshore at 12z...I would have been surprised if it showed a hit even if the GFS and NAM looked good...but at any rate, it doesn't help.

I fully expect the Euro to come in status quo.

That all said, I am definitely not waiving the white flag on this event...this is the type of setup where our longitude will help us sticking out into the Atlantic a bit. I've seen this before many times...the models come in a bit ugly on a marginal solution at D4-4.5 only to come back quick in the next 24 hours. We saw this with Jan 14, 2008 actually as funny as that sounds. Showed whiff all over the place at 96h while I wa son a radio show with HM....horrible run. Then they sort of came back at 12z and came back much bigger at 00z the next evening.

Dec 19 last year was another, even though that didnt really crush us...but still a decent event.

Yeah we're still not at the throw in the towel time yet. I'd like to see the 00z or 12z Euro to make even some baby steps west... that would help.

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00z GFS ensemble mean spread has come back west a bit, and has trended more amplified..but is still a good bit wide right.

00z GEFS means look further southeast as well. This could be the last hitch east and then trend west towards the 72-96 hour period. Right now I like the variable prediction of 35-45n and 65-70w.

:unsure: :unsure: :unsure: :unsure: :unsure:

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If this fails also ..maybe it's time for this pattern to be banished. Move on to a SE ridge and some overunning events over the top of it for us from about ALB to BOS and points north. Normal LaNina stuff.... At least you get snow that way such as in the winter of 07-08. We all thought that would be the rule this winter anyway.

Looks like you may get your wish for awhile soon.

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It actually seems to indicate a bit more of a spread to the west if you look at the isobars, otherwise there was no real movement.

This storm could be a case where it rapidly deepens to our SSE, but gets intense enough to throw back some decent accumulations into SE MA. GEFS means have been showing some good accumulations consistently even though the track is further southeast then we would like. Still another 24 hours to go before giving up on this system. I think this is the last shift east, before we get to within 72 hours, which the models will begin to bring the low back west some, how much who knows, but I think Taunton NWS is too warm with surface temperatures for CC.

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This storm could be a case where it rapidly deepens to our SSE, but gets intense enough to throw back some decent accumulations into SE MA. GEFS means have been showing some good accumulations consistently even though the track is further southeast then we would like. Still another 24 hours to go before giving up on this system. I think this is the last shift east, before we get to within 72 hours, which the models will begin to bring the low back west some, how much who knows, but I think Taunton NWS is too warm with surface temperatures for CC.

I think you should definitely still be in tune more than anyone for this...Cape Cod could still get a big hit more than any area.

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If this fails also ..maybe it's time for this pattern to be banished. Move on to a SE ridge and some overunning events over the top of it for us from about ALB to BOS and points north. Normal LaNina stuff.... At least you get snow that way such as in the winter of 07-08. We all thought that would be the rule this winter anyway.

I think we could all use a couple SW flow events with a quick hitting 4-8" snow that is modeled to a tee 3-4 days out.

I'm out...can't wait to turn on the morning news tomorrow and see partly cloudy skies for SUN or one of those flurry graphics. Whoop!

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