D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[40/70 Benchmark]

As Will loves to say the Euro is lethal in the day 4 range. The 00z/12z runs tonight and tomorrow will be key. A sizable shift west in either run will grab my attention. Status quo or east and I'll check out.

This.

Jay can keep hammering at me about 100+ hrs, blah, blah....but if the EURO is still a miss at 12z tmw, I'm out and there is a 90% chance that I'll ultimately be right.

I kept hearing the same sh** last February, last March ....all cane season and now throughout the first half of December....I win some and lose some, but I haven't lost many this year.

[ORH_wxman]

Regardless of the outcome that's a pretty strong signal that the big bomb solutions at this latitude are losing likelihood right now, although still with a boatload of time. We have seen several times last winter where 00z and 12z runs were completely different thanks to data ingestion and we never really got a handle until inside 72 hrs. Wonder if that is the case again this year.

Yeah its starting to fade away west of the NYC-DCA corridor....but its definitely not dead yet. I'd feel a lot better if I was in Boston right now or even Cape Cod.

I'll remind us all that despite the trends, we are still over 4 days out and we've seen this before despite nobody ever remembering. The synoptic pattern will definitely favor a longitude gradient though vs a latitude gradient like we saw in many storms last year. This might be the storm that lets eastern New England get payback for being both too far north (Feb 5-6, Feb 10, Jan 28) and too far east (Feb 25-26) last year. Eastern MA and Maine is where I might like to be right now.

But again, we have a ways to go...I think the tunes will change quite a bit if the Euro comes well west of 12z. Though the clock is certainly ticking a bit faster now.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sorry...

https://www.fnmoc.na...au=120&set=Core

My firewall security didn't like that sight...

[CT Rain]

This.

Jay can keep hammering at me about 100+ hrs, blah, blah....but if the EURO is still a miss at 12z tmw, I'm out and there is a 90% chance that I'll ultimately be right.

I kept hearing the same sh** last February, last March ....all cane season and now throughout the first half of December....I win some and lose some, but I haven't lost many this year.

Stranger things have happened. But the Euro has been steadfast 3 runs in a row... all with a whiff. The run before had virtually no storm at all.

The GFS, OTOH has been flopping around like a dying fish.

How many times have we seen this same scenario?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sorry...

https://www.fnmoc.na...au=120&set=Core

Thank you, the site I was using is not current. It may be a tick East.

[free_man]

Hopefully it snows after Christmas.

[Mr Torchey]

This.

Jay can keep hammering at me about 100+ hrs, blah, blah....but if the EURO is still a miss at 12z tmw, I'm out and there is a 90% chance that I'll ultimately be right.

I kept hearing the same sh** last February, last March ....all cane season and now throughout the first half of December....I win some and lose some, but I haven't lost many this year.

WHats even more promising is the fact the gfs not only loses the "storm" but its dry and cool for xmas, then we torch and rain on NYE, now we all know, it will get that part of the forecast right

[weathafella]

My firewall security didn't like that sight...

It's a gov (.mil) site.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Stranger things have happened. But the Euro has been steadfast 3 runs in a row... all with a whiff. The run before had virtually no storm at all.

The GFS, OTOH has been flopping around like a dying fish.

How many times have we seen this same scenario?

But it is now heading into it's wheelhouse as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah its starting to fade away west of the NYC-DCA corridor....but its definitely not dead yet. I'd feel a lot better if I was in Boston right now or even Cape Cod.

I'll remind us all that despite the trends, we are still over 4 days out and we've seen this before despite nobody ever remembering. The synoptic pattern will definitely favor a longitude gradient though vs a latitude gradient like we saw in many storms last year. This might be the storm that lets eastern New England get payback for being both too far north (Feb 5-6, Feb 10, Jan 28) and too far east (Feb 25-26) last year. Eastern MA and Maine is where I might like to be right now.

But again, we have a ways to go...I think the tunes will change quite a bit if the Euro comes well west of 12z. Though the clock is certainly ticking a bit faster now.

Been saying I expect at least one this year, but we need a trend quickly for this one to be the first....at least IMO.

[Mr Torchey]

Thank you, the site I was using is not current. It may be a tick East.

I agree, 25-50 miles east

[CT Rain]

Hopefully it snows after Christmas.

If I'm paying for extra heating oil I better be shoveling 30" of snow in a month... otherwise what a complete a total waste.

[TalcottWx]

This.

Jay can keep hammering at me about 100+ hrs, blah, blah....but if the EURO is still a miss at 12z tmw, I'm out and there is a 90% chance that I'll ultimately be right.

I kept hearing the same sh** last February, last March ....all cane season and now throughout the first half of December....I win some and lose some, but I haven't lost many this year.

The pain has to end sooner or later, you gotta go down to go back up, just keep the faith. The next three Euro's are the key. Otherwise, on to the next one....

[earthlight]

Yeah its starting to fade away west of the NYC-DCA corridor....but its definitely not dead yet. I'd feel a lot better if I was in Boston right now or even Cape Cod.

I'll remind us all that despite the trends, we are still over 4 days out and we've seen this before despite nobody ever remembering. The synoptic pattern will definitely favor a longitude gradient though vs a latitude gradient like we saw in many storms last year. This might be the storm that lets eastern New England get payback for being both too far north (Feb 5-6, Feb 10, Jan 28) and too far east (Feb 25-26) last year. Eastern MA and Maine is where I might like to be right now.

But again, we have a ways to go...I think the tunes will change quite a bit if the Euro comes well west of 12z. Though the clock is certainly ticking a bit faster now.

I think the bolded part is a good way to put it--the race is on at the moment. I do think the general H5 setup gives a bit of room for a westward trend, too. But like you said, I would like to see something good out of the Euro tonight. Even a slight west bump in the OP or ensembles. If it goes further east, I will not be too happy. And I'm sure many will hang themselves, which still isn't smart given that the event is 100 hours or more away.

By the way, through 72 hours the 00z GGEM seems in line the GFS, but it might be a hair more amplified.

[40/70 Benchmark]

WHats even more promising is the fact the gfs not only loses the "storm" but its dry and cool for xmas, then we torch and rain on NYE, now we all know, it will get that part of the forecast right

I'll take cold and dry over warm on xmas, but that is it.

[weathafella]

Canadian is a miss. Which means so far GFS/CMC, probably crazy Uncle Ukie. If the Euro is a miss, stand down a notch until we have more evidence.

[Logan11]

This may be a whiff, but I think it's a lot different from last winter. I'm thinking increasingly that if it misses NY/NE then it will be another wide right "too late" phase and ME retro hitter. I don't think this time DC gets buried and NE gets whiffed. Either both get it, or neither do. Ohh DC may get a few inches, but no big KU storm in that case.

This.

Jay can keep hammering at me about 100+ hrs, blah, blah....but if the EURO is still a miss at 12z tmw, I'm out and there is a 90% chance that I'll ultimately be right.

I kept hearing the same sh** last February, last March ....all cane season and now throughout the first half of December....I win some and lose some, but I haven't lost many this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The pain has to end sooner or later, you gotta go down to go back up, just keep the faith. The next three Euro's are the key. Otherwise, on to the next one....

We really are saying close to the same thing, it's just that I assume an abrasive, pessimistic tone and it looks so much worse than it is.....I'm giving it until 12z tmw and you 00z tmw......all of this over12 hrs.

[earthlight]

Yeah, another big time swing and miss on the CMC--further east than most models, too.

[weathafella]

I keep dwelling on how much time I've wasted....valuable time. I enjoy talking to you all but I like my family members even more....

[earthlight]

00z GFS ensemble mean spread has come back west a bit, and has trended more amplified..but is still a good bit wide right.

[SouthCoastMA]

Canadian is a miss. Which means so far GFS/CMC, probably crazy Uncle Ukie. If the Euro is a miss, stand down a notch until we have more evidence.

Ugly. Canadian is about 200 miles ESE of the benchmark

[40/70 Benchmark]

This may be a whiff, but I think it's a lot different from last winter. I'm thinking increasingly that if it misses NY/NE then it will be another wide right "too late" phase and ME retro hitter. I don't think this time DC gets buried and NE gets whiffed. Either both get it, or neither do. Ohh DC may get a few inches, but no big KU storm in that case.

So it we found a new manner in which to fail....great.

I'd like to qurantine all PVs to the other side of the globe, at this point.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I think this storm tracks between 65-70w and 35-45n.

[skierinvermont]

GEM is ots.. it has the same strong PV holding east of maine the gfs had

models are quickly locking onto the one and only way to screw interior SNE.. we need them to trend east or retrograde that pv fast. Eastern areas can hold on hope for a while though

[TalcottWx]

We really are saying close to the same thing, it's just that I assume an abrasive, pessimistic tone and it looks so much worse than it is.....I'm giving it until 12z tmw and you 00z tmw......all of this over12 hrs.

We are agreeing overall, its just a little different mentality that is all. It's amazing how much time can be spent on this board analyzing the minuscule details, but that's what makes it fun. A negative consensus does appear to be developing tonight but the massive swings by particularly the GFS is just as much evidence theres still a couple more runs where it can go quickly the other way. I think right now were in much better shape then WSNE, ESNE is probably the favorable area is were going to be a close whiff.

[CT Rain]

Any threats for the week of Jan 3?

[ORH_wxman]

The GGEM was about 600 miles offshore at 12z...I would have been surprised if it showed a hit even if the GFS and NAM looked good...but at any rate, it doesn't help.

I fully expect the Euro to come in status quo.

That all said, I am definitely not waiving the white flag on this event...this is the type of setup where our longitude will help us sticking out into the Atlantic a bit. I've seen this before many times...the models come in a bit ugly on a marginal solution at D4-4.5 only to come back quick in the next 24 hours. We saw this with Jan 14, 2008 actually as funny as that sounds. Showed whiff all over the place at 96h while I wa son a radio show with HM....horrible run. Then they sort of came back at 12z and came back much bigger at 00z the next evening.

Dec 19 last year was another, even though that didnt really crush us...but still a decent event.

[weathafella]

So it we found a new manner in which to fail....great.

I'd like to qurantine all PVs to the other side of the globe, at this point.

Looks like you may get your wish for awhile soon.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

00z GEFS means look further southeast as well. This could be the last hitch east and then trend west towards the 72-96 hour period. Right now I like the variable prediction of 35-45n and 65-70w.